I still have xxsooted as a clear villager. He's been making very good logical points to defend villagers and was only on the nichp wagon because he found evidence against nich himself when it still looked like nich could be a wolf.

So I guess I will put you in the "disagree" camp.

I didnt mention it b/c I just did the analysis today. Analysis that could not have been done at that point b/c we didn;t know the roles of the majority of players which we do now. (And it was stuff that happened d1, d2 and d3).

And if we are going to lynch just on who voted for a wolf, how about we lynch xxs, eleatic, sun tzu, beg as well.

But, anyway, please humor me, does the case I laid out against xxs make logical sense or not?

No, it doesn't make any sense at all. The wagons were pretty much all villagers at that point. There's no reason at all you'd need two wolves to get a wagon going. Also, it's not even like he was a very strong wagon any of those days, as he never ended up with more than 2 votes.

The Aries posts re BEG and aard to which I believe she was referring. First, re aard:
This isn't great. It's true that tells of which one is aware aren't as strong as unconscious ones, but the logic definitely doesn't follow: being aware of something does not mean one can eliminate the behavior. I can see where KM got her sense that this was wolfy.

It still doesn't mean Aries is a wolf, though, because there's no reason for wAries to say this at this point. Aard was not getting lynched any time soon (or probably ever), and I don't know what good it would do for a wolf to unclear him. (Because there was no reaosn to clear him, it does appear that if Aries is a wolf then aard is absolutely a villager -- aard would be the one wolf Aries could safely keep oin his cleared list.)


Re BEG:
Not much of an attack in the voting history.

The reference to the previous game is a little off: The angel fake did indeed show a lot of insight into what was going on (and worked a lot better than I thought it would), but the rest of her play that game was very similar to this one. We had discussions about the volume of posts (per day, not total) and the difficulty of making the adjustment during that game, too. She fought for much of the time with m1ke, concluding from it at various times that he was a wolf, much as she did with chim in this one. Moreover, the tone was very similar.

But he wasn't a wolf, so this doesn't mean much. If he had been, then the conclusion would be right.

Again, if Nich were a wolf this would go with an attempt to implicate BEG (and a fair one imo, because her voting would look pretty bad), but it's a poor way to do it if he knew Nich would come up village. It would only make sense if he thought Nich was unlikely to be lynched soon.

Here's my complete list of reads at this point BTW, feel it's fairly accurate:

likely villagers
xxsooted
kyrosmother

village leans
Sun

neutral
atakdog
aard
caldarooni
eleactic stranger

wolf lean
BEG

likely wolf
Aries

guaranteed wolf
well named

I posted what I thought of XX yesterday, but I didn't consider these wagons. I had been looking at the end of the day wagons, and XX's was never big.

I am going to think about it in the car -- the next few hours, I'll be on the road. Not that it's real likely, but don't majority anyone while I'm gone.

I am reading this thread and having the same reaction as iggy. How can well named not be getting heat? He has to be a wolf.

WN

well named

I also didnt vote because I didnt want a turbo-lynch. I guess at a 7-4 split, a turbo-lynch is less likely.

Also willing to switch to Aries. Now that we know Nick was a villager, something set him off to go after Aries day after day. I know Nick wasnt NK'd for it, but it may have been because his WN peek was wrong.

BS. XXS was THE leading wagon with 15 mins to go d1 and with 40 mins to go d2. That is kinda my point to do this. I wanted to see why various wagons failed, specifically the unknowns. How many votes they have at eod is less important than how they got there.

I love being a guaranteed wolf as a villager. It's kind of funny. I really have no idea what to do though.

I'm also getting a funny feeling who the last two wolves might be - but again, I think it is best to keep some of that stuff to ourselves at this point.

I could psych you guys out and post some lol cats, but I think that would be too much of a let down at night and it's almost thanksgiving so I don't want to be mean.

I think I'm going to go with my gut and say xxsooted.

Aries/xxsooted/KM/x ?

OK. Say we lynch wn tongiht and he is a wolf. We still have three more wolves to go to win. Is there harm in thinking about who else might be a wolf?

It seems my name is likely mud to some of you, but please, ignore the fact that I posted it, and think about my point.

Great, the one person who is voting my suspect is the opposing wagon, who happens to think I am a wolf.

I'm thinking wellnamed, atak, aries, and either xxs or iggy. I don't see the harm in posting lists at this point, but if someone wants to spell it out for me that would be great.

Aries, if it makes you feel better I'm not a wolf

If it makes you feel better, neither am I.

You guys are cute.

FWIW, if somehow WN were a villager, I think it would be almost guaranteed that Atakdog is a wolf since he was the one who pushed the whole line of reasoning so heavily that there had to be a wolf among WN/nich/Matrix. He really seems like the only viable choice other than WN at this point. Still think WN is far and away the most likely wolf at this point though.

Thanks, cald. Must be because you have not seen a picture of me yet.

Anyway, forget I said it, but what do you think of the analysis of xxs that some nameless person wrote about 20 posts ago?

atakdog does have a wolf avatar. Maybe we should be making something of that.

Forget, I PERSONALLY said it. (Amnedment to above post). Pretend aard or someone said it.

This is a good thought process. I don't think atak would be the only person pushing or noticing this, but my recollection is that he was the strongest proponent of it.

Aries, I am trying to consider everyone's points, including yours. But I will also admit I give some more weight than others - and I am just not sure I agree with your conclusions. You want me to suspect xxsooted because you dont believe "that only one wolf would vote for a villager who was getting heat on multiple days?" I'm not convinced that means xxsooted is a wolf. And it certainly isnt enough to make me suspect him now over you or WN.

And yes, I am already thinking about who I think the remaining wolves are. But I dont think posting all of our suspects is a good idea - as it allows the wolves to cherry-pick who they kill at night. Yes, sometimes they kill the most clear, but sometimes they kill based on who suspects who. And sometimes they kill whoever can confuse the village the most - which seems to be the way this game has gone. Anyway, we need to limit how much info we are giving them at this point in the game. But, I think you should know that.