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Old 05-06-2009, 01:45 AM   #2376
cardassian
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Now on to the sk.

Does everyone think the serial killer has the sickest reads on the wolves and is killing them off on purpose, or do you think we've just been lucky that he's nailed like enarly all woof woofs?
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Old 05-06-2009, 01:45 AM   #2377
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Here are my favourite Cors quotes:

Quote:
Originally Posted by corsakh View Post
Oi, guys get off jobeen wagon for now, he sounded like a friendly noob. Its easy to vote for someone with a total postcount on this forum in like single digits, but come on, give him a chance to shine. Maybe he will become a legendary puphunter one day.

If for some reason you still feel strong against noobs, and since d1 is mostly a crap shoot anyway, and you don't want to be making a mistake of lynching a more experienced villager too early, I suggest looking into the AFK list.

chaser1942
IlyaMuromec
Slink
Malgin
Hardball47

This IlyaMuromec character for example already played in one of my previous games, but never showed up and got subbed.
He defends Jobeen hard here and attacks Ilya which makes me feel better about Ilya and worse about Jobeen. Notice all the other people he mentions as good votes are villas (chaser, malgin, hardball/caedus, slink). So Ilya earns villa points for me here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by corsakh View Post
I don't know, apart from that spite vote on jobean, he did not really stand out too much to me, but I have already played with him a couple of times so kinda expecting this to happen. So ye, a fair reminder to all the new guys here that some people just act silly and can not help themselves. Its more about why they are acting they way they are acting rather than how. Simply because their idea of this game and a good time in it can be very different from yours. And I can also think of conscious reasons why he would do something like this on d0, namely give pups a super easy wagon to hop on.

Since we don't really have much to go by for now, might as well look into the small early wagons that were in place before WU and Beer took off. Jumanji(3), Gtpitch(2) and Nightwood(2). Nightwood already seemed pretty vocal against jumanji last night, so lets see where it takes us.

vote Nightwood
I think this clears Nightwood as villa in my book. Notice once again he tries to clear Jobeen. Jobeen is looking wolfy.

3rd: I wont quote the whole thing but when he pretend peeks Ertburger as a wolf (co-encidedly right as he was getting some heat as card2.0 took over for him) he must have been hoping that everyone would immediately switch their vote to Card 2.0 and kill him. So, this clears Card 2.0 as a villa again.

Cliffnotes: Nightwood, Card 2.0 = definite villa. Ilya = lean villa. Jobeen = lean wolf.
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Old 05-06-2009, 01:46 AM   #2378
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by cardassian View Post
Gogogo SK! good hunting again and again.

Ainex I'm Aert now.

GG win.

So where's everybody want to start today, 3 wagons still good?
Tri wagons have never taken off and I see no reason to start now with how few players are left.

BTW, perhaps we can negotiate a truce with the SK? He seems perfectly content to wolfhunt, so I say we let him. He seems to think his best shot at winning this thing is to have it out with an all villager finals, with no wolves to potentially NK him.
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Old 05-06-2009, 01:50 AM   #2379
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

I think at least one of the wolves played in the ssfr game.

This is as in that game d1 dnky left a "fake peek" for seer cover, and came out seer d2 (lived to like d4 or d5).

When he came in d1 and left a peek my first thought was dnky may be seer. When it was pointed out that there was no n0 peek I was even more worried that dnky was a seer and was trying to provide his own cover.

I think lots of players from that game would of thought along the same lines.

Those players are

Ainex
O0brian0O
Jum
Karak

Nightwood also subbed into that game.
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Old 05-06-2009, 01:51 AM   #2380
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

My villa list is prob the same as everybody elses, but just in case:

Villas

BitchiBee
djstu
cardassian
goofyballer
I_Like_Beer (unless he's SK)
nightwood
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Old 05-06-2009, 01:52 AM   #2381
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

@Slink problem with your arguement there is you presume we KNOW you are villa.

We don't.

@brian I'm all for leaving the SK til last the way he's wolf hunting.
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Old 05-06-2009, 01:52 AM   #2382
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Also IIRC starkwired is a somewhat cleared villa, but I can't recall why atm.
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Old 05-06-2009, 01:55 AM   #2383
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian View Post
Does the serial killer have to kill people at night? Or is it an option? I can see him not wanting to narrow down for the wolves who he is later on in the game. It seems like a virtually impossible role to win with, but can really fark the village up if he gets a seer. And I think he will be seerhunting every night. He wants there to be as much confusion about the roles as possible, and doesn't want the village to ever lock things up. He also doesn't want to be peeked villager, because the wolves will kill him after the seer dies. So leaving seer cover will be extra important this game.

Seers: I strongly advise reading this strategy guide. Cliff's notes is that good peeks are players who are likely to live a long time, and not necessarily whomever you think is most wolfy. In fact a seer who gets to the end game with all villager peeks is about the best thing possible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian View Post
Serial killer can also make for weird end game scenarios where there is a Final 6 instead of a Final 5. or Final 4 instead of a Final 3. What happens if the Final 4 is 3 villagers and 1 wolf? Villagers lynch a villager, wolf NK's a villager, and then theres 1 villager and 1 wolf left - does that mean it's a tie?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian View Post
I think it's best if we get possible motives for roles out in the open - serial killer is something we'll be discussing all game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian View Post
Wow SK, lol.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian View Post
Feel free to expand upon them if you actually have reasons to think I'm a wolf or SK, instead of just echoing someone else.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian View Post
Your thoughts were I posted majority night when it looked like night had been reached because I'm a wolf or SK?

jumanji makes no sense either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian View Post
I'd say it's about 33/33/33 on WER being villa/SK/wolf. 33% is hudge for overall percent chance he's SK though. I think it's very likely that at this point SK starts collaborating with wolves so that villa doesn't pull too far ahead, assuming we've got 2 wolves out of Ilya/corsakh/jumanji. So we've got to stop the bleeding before it starts. That said, SK seems perfectly content to wolfhunt atm, and only strayed when cardassian threatened to out him.

I say we give WER another night and see what he does - if we lynch for an SK and wind up being wrong, we could really fux ourselves.

I'm not really sure how to SK hunt either. I think WER has a good strategy for SK - with his high post count, he isn't likely to peeked, which AFAIK SK doesn't want to be peeked. I think there's virtually no way that an SK wins if he is peeked. Either wolves will kill him off before finals, or all wolves will be dead so villagers will lynch confirmed peeks.

I also don't think he's made any effort to leave fake peeks, which an SK wouldn't want to leave obviously. WER, pls link to your fakepeeks if you've left them. IIRC there was something about cardassian but that's it.

I def think WER should be a wagon today regardless though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian View Post
I disagree. See my posts about SK throughout the thread (one earlier today RE:WER being SK) for my take on SK strategy.

Cliff's notes: I think there is virtually no way for SK to win if he is seer-peeked.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian View Post
Tri wagons have never taken off and I see no reason to start now with how few players are left.

BTW, perhaps we can negotiate a truce with the SK? He seems perfectly content to wolfhunt, so I say we let him. He seems to think his best shot at winning this thing is to have it out with an all villager finals, with no wolves to potentially NK him.
I went through Brian since he's very active and I want to make sure we know he's villa before we start letting him essentially run the game (also wary because of what happened in the other game). He mentions the SK in a ton of posts, by far more than anyone else. This leads me to think he is trying a simple leveling strategy to get us to believe that he cannot be the SK because he brings it up so much. I really don't understand why he would bring up being the SK all the freaking time if he wasn't in fact the SK. The kills also make sense as he is taking out players that seemed active and decent in the last game that we played. There are a few others who could possibly be the SK IMO (keeping quiet for now), but I think Brian is my best SK read and I really think this sticks out. I'm not quite ready to vote him though because tbh I'm not sure if we should want to kill the SK just yet. It might be better to let him keep doing our job for us. What do you guys think? Is it worth it to take a stab at someone like Brian or to kill some seemingly less experienced UTRs in the hopes that they are wolves?
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Old 05-06-2009, 01:56 AM   #2384
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

I'm going afk to eat.
Be back in about an hour (give or take).

Yeah brian your villa list looks like mine (didn't have goofy on it yesterday but the mburke = wolf really makes me think goofy's clear).
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Old 05-06-2009, 01:57 AM   #2385
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

its late and I need to finish this paper real quick, might check back in before I go to bed but I'm going to probably just return in the morning with more stuff, sorry this is a ***** week because of finals and ****
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Old 05-06-2009, 01:59 AM   #2386
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian View Post
Also IIRC starkwired is a somewhat cleared villa, but I can't recall why atm.
Stark was cleared when Kesh (wolf) went after him 3 times on day 1 or 2.
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Old 05-06-2009, 02:00 AM   #2387
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

WER talked about SK about as much as I have. I was his top suspicion for SK before he died though, iirc.

SK has played a huge role in this game (obviously). And will continue to do so. I think, if anything, there hasn't been enough discussion of him itt.

But yeah, if I were SK, I would prob do the exact same thing and talk about him nonstop - probably to try to see what other people think SK should do, and if that person is WER, do the opposite.

I have no desire to run the game though.

goofy is the one who outed mburke as wolf, right? The way he outed mburke is also totally different than the way 00brian00 outed gtpitch. goofy used some deductive reasoning and made a sick wolf read, whereas 00brian00 just called gtpitch out for fluff posting on a D1.
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Old 05-06-2009, 02:01 AM   #2388
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

The fact that the SK is playing such an excellent game should disqualify me from being SK. I am not nearly that talented at this game.

I think Brian definitely has SK potential. I do not think he is a wolf.
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Old 05-06-2009, 02:04 AM   #2389
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by cardassian View Post
@Slink problem with your arguement there is you presume we KNOW you are villa.

We don't.

@brian I'm all for leaving the SK til last the way he's wolf hunting.
Still doesnt change the fact that a known wolf is pushing in different directions. Well anyway, I believe you are a villager now so I am not going to argue with you.
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Old 05-06-2009, 02:07 AM   #2390
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

fwiw I'm working on epic mburke re-read, about halfway done
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Old 05-06-2009, 02:42 AM   #2391
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slink View Post
Still doesnt change the fact that a known wolf is pushing in different directions. Well anyway, I believe you are a villager now so I am not going to argue with you.
For sure. Fwiw I'm not calling you a wolf, have heaps better suspects for now imo, just saying while I lean villa on you I'm not ready to confirm it yet.
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Old 05-06-2009, 02:44 AM   #2392
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Rereading mburke05, he definitely didn't spew anyone other than goofyballer=villa, and possibly ilya(DannyKGB)=villa. He defended his wolfbuddies, but also defended villagers, throughout. He flipflops on Corsakh, saying Cors is most likely wolf along with jobeen, to villa on Cors within a few posts. Then he and cors put on a wolf-wolf show. He also flipflops on Jobeen: defends him as villa, then puts him in wolf list. Ilya(DannyKGB) he's all around the place on; given that that's what he's done with Cors, I'm not sure what to make of it.

He also has an interesting relationship with nightwood that I am too tired to explore in depth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
this is super sketchy imo. but i don't think ilb is a wolf b/c he genuinely runs bad in these games lol.

i kinda wanna vote goofy again b/c he hasn't posted yet, and that was exactly the way he played in teh ssnl game.
Spews goofy villa here and throughout; I think his ILB read is a genuine, "forced" read when he knows ILB isn't a wolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
either we look into somebody who hasn't contributed at all, or one of the more experience players. i'd lean towards the former given that we don't have seers reads yet and therefore it won't make a huge difference if we vote off an inexperienced person who wasn't contributing anyway.

i agree w/ the verdict on jobeen not being a wofl aorn tho.

why did mdom vote for goofy?
Wants to lynch off AFK's/UTR's - not sure who those were at this time, but there were def a few. And he sticks on a lot of them for the rest of the game, specifically A. Eertjberg, Ilya, Malgin, etc.

Says jobeen is villa.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
goofyballer


i'm b/t him and corsakh but i'm not sure on either yet. goofy is more utr and this is exactly how he played wolf last game, which i think makes him extremely villagey or extremely wolfy.
Starts with cors=wolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
not only this, but gtpitch and beer both contribute decent amounts. gt in particular. i think gt villa helps us more than the scenario where hes a wolf for one day.

what is the case for jumanji?

i like brians analysis of karak, but i sense they have some history i dont know about for some reason that is like warping brians analysis of karaks actions. i'm leaning villa on nightwood though, and i don't see how him "latching on" a d1 vote is convincing evidence. i'm supcious of goofy, and i'm suspicious of jobeen/corsakh. i would DEF not vote beer out tonihgt b/c i think he has good information, WU was a mistake but w/e lets reconcile it by not voting beer out tonight and getting good reads for the next few hrs.

also, has 00brian00 played before? b/c if he hasn't i would lean wolf immediately just b/c of how stnd a play as a wolf that would be.
Defends gtpitch; confirms for me that Karak isn't a wolf now. Changes his read of jobeen to wolf, and stays on cors as wolf.

Attacks 00Brian00, but never mentions him again in the thread.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
cadeus just came out of left field with no posting history to defend goofy (who myself, gtpitch, bitchibii, and two others think looks wolfish) without any logic behind it. then he gives a terrible jusitifcation for voting brian.

i think this is super super worthy of more investigation before voting. we have 2 more hours ppl come on. brian is really good and would help a **** load as a villager, and i dont think he can do much more harm if he is a wolf given the wagons we have set up anyway.

also, corsakh as a train? really? maybe the most villa player so far besides stark or WiR.

cadeus9

will be looking back at the thread as updates go on tho
Now changes his mind on corsakh when corsakh is actually getting some heat. Also, he starts buddying up to me and telling others not to lynch me; I think at this point, wolves wanted to keep me alive and hope that I get lots of players mislynched as Karak wasn't a wolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
WiR i was looking back but couldn't find it, could you help me out. (no tone, just curious)

i'm planning a trip to vegas atm so kinda busy sry.

and i think other people to consider are:

ilya
malgrin

ilya basically hasnt done anything but post once to wagon JF (w/ neither vote in the end). so he's either an insanely utg SK/wolf or a terrible villager. either the way he's not helping at all and at this pt i'd rather keep the good players that are contributing seeing as the SK will mathematically be more likely hitting a villa next.

malgrin didn't post a single helpful thing, in fact, his only insightful post was to defend himself against an accusation that he wasn't posting by slink who was in fact totally right. it was the right pick yest b/c the worst case scenario would be that we have one less person that contributes nothing per day/make it more likely SK hits another wolf. after the wagon got started on jack frost by wir, malgrin jumped on immediately w/ no reasoning at all (literally go back and look at his post. it was "ya he seems really wolfish" without explaining anything).

my villas:
ilb (ldo)
nw
mdom
slink

seers:
car
djstu


wolfs:
cors
ilya
malg

unknowns:
chaser (lean villa)
goofy (lean villa)
I think he puts 1 wolf and 2 villas in his wolf list here. So I think Ilya(DannyKGB) is prob villager.

I can't shake the feeling that he prob has 1 wolf in his list of 4 villagers. Don't know which it is though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
agree w/ nightwood on the strong player hunt, i dont think caedus was active enough / gave peeks to be warranted a seer. he joined the 2nd day too as a replacement didnt' he?
Part of his weird interaction with nightwood. This basically confirms that Caedus was NK'ed as a seerhunt, either for Cors=wolf or goofyballer=villa.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
and i think in hindsight based on ilya's last 2 posts he looks more like an ignorant villa than an utr wolf.
I think he's prob just trying to get villa points here if Ilya is lynched wolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
somebody please read goofy's posts and tell me they aren't tantamount to a 1st grader throwing a temper tantrum and i'll shut up on that subject.

until then look at stu dismissing me lightly, look at cors wagoning, and more importantly look at the inactives that have voted v-v two days in a row, ie. malgin/ilya.

bbl
Still comes after Ilya again, lol.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
pls to not be mislynching me, im watching the heat game but ill be in here in a bit.

ask me questions you may have and i'll answer them gladly.

until then the only wagon that makes any sense right now that i think is legitimate is a.ertjberg for the utr sketch behavior and non-conrtribution.

hypothetically if i was a seer and was nked/lynched, goofy and job would be villas.
I know he is willing to wagon/cast doubt on wolves, but I don't think he puts heat on a wolf that is already struggling and in the spotlight. But we already knew that Cardassian v. 2.0 was villager.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
this is BBango's info on ilya, which i think makes you right that ilya prob isnt wolfish. which leaves active players

card
wir
mdom
nightwood
corsakh
So he's now wolfy on mdom/nightwood, who he had listed as villager earlier, along with ILB and slink. So I think slink is the suspicious one in his 4 villager list.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
mrs buttons you must be reading somebnody elses posts b/c i posted the exact same reads about ae/malg/ilya last night.

though today i recanted on ilya, as im pretty sure anybody would, b/c of his ignorant post about not knowing how to play or w/e plus his registration date. unless its a sick angleshoot, hes def a villa.
Def trying to gain villa points when Ilya is mislynched.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
where is brian when we need good advice?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05 View Post
i'm sorry but killing brian today might be the worst vote ever.
I'm taking these two comments as snarky jabs based on wolves lol'ing at me in wolfchat.

Cliff's notes:

A. Ertjberg (cardassian) = villa.
Ilya (DannyKGB) = villa.
Goofyballer = villa.
Karak567 = villa (still my best guess for SK tho)

Slink is suspicious.
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Old 05-06-2009, 02:46 AM   #2393
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Last 2 wolves = Jumanji, 00Brian00, possibly slink.

SK = Karak or ILB.

Ship it.
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Old 05-06-2009, 02:47 AM   #2394
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Ainex is unknown entity so he could be wolf or SK also.
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Old 05-06-2009, 02:48 AM   #2395
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

mburke reread:

DAY 1:

280: quotes beer voting jobeen on d1 and says it's super suspicious although he doesn't think ILB is a wolf because "he runs bad in these games". I think ILB is mostly cleared at this point (this point as in now, not when this post was made) so I'm curious what this says about jobeen - cardassian, you said you'd be able to get a read on jobeen since you know each other IRL, what are your thoughts now on her now that the game's been going awhile?

289: reiterates that he doesn't think jobeen is a woof

482: meaningless vote for me EoD d1, says it was between me and corsakh (prob won't be the only place he provides cover for other wolves)

DAY 2:

615: agrees w/ a nightwood posts where nightwood says beer doesn't look wolfy

627: asks brian to elaborate on why he's voting karak

731: interesting post. he quotes karak saying that gtpitch is villa and mburke agrees, saying gtpitch and beer both contribute a lot. he then tries to discredit brian putting heat on karak somewhat by saying "I think brian has some history w/ karak he's not telling us about" or something, which was weird as hell I thought even on d3:

Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
Mburke - I think gtpitch's comment that the pissing match between me and him was probably v/v actually makes it likely that it's w/v, and the wolf in that relationship is definitely more likely to be mburke. He also defended gtpitch as being helpful at a point when one of the biggest knocks on gtpitch's credibility was that he was just posting fluff all the time. One last thing to keep in mind if mburke turns up wolf at any point is that he tried to discredit Brian's accusations of Karak.
Karak looking like a good wagon candidate right now imo.

Still on post 731, mburke says:
- what's the case for jumanji?
- leaning villa on nightwood
- "i'm suspicious of goofy, and i'm suspicious of jobeen/corsakh." Here he flip-flops on jobeen - he offered no reason for all of a sudden thinking he was suspicious when twice before he'd said he thought jobeen was villa, and he mentions jobeen in exactly the same manner as a fellow wolf.
- reiterates that he hates voting beer. don't think he'd be so blatant about covering a fellow wolf.

902: votes caedus because "he came out of nowhere to defend goofy who me, gtpitch, bitchi, and two others think are wolfish, and gives terrible justification for voting brian". this would be providing cover for brian, but I think it's legit because if brian is a wolf, then discrediting what brian said about karak in such a subtle manner makes no sense. in a lol flip-flop he then says "corsakh as a train? really? he's the most villa player so far besides stark/WER" giving no reason for suddenly not suspecting a player who he twice pushed as being suspicious before (remember, he flip flopped on jobeen the same way!)

904: agrees w/ riverfenix that jack frost is prob a bad lynch, so he'll cover villas when he feels it's convenient

DAY 3:

1050: says brian "looks good" (given context I'm guessing that means he thinks brian looks villa?) but WER looks insanely wolfish for hopping on board with gtpitch twice, don't think this tells us much

1060: says we need to look into/start wagons on ilya and malgin. this actually clears ilya a little imo, as mburke goes after him more aggressively here than he has any of the other wolves he's cast suspicion on. he also posts a villa/wolf list:
villa: beer, nightwood, mdom, slink
seers: card, djstu
wolfs: cors (super LOL flip flop again), ilya, malgin
unknowns: chaser, goofy (lean villa on both)

1067: agrees with nightwood that caedus was probably just hunting strong players and not necessarily a seer hunt. this probably means caedus was a seer hunt and mburke's trying to deflect attention from people looking at his "peeks" too closely.

1075: likes A.E and karak (flip flop on karak?) because of karak's history with beer who looks very very villa. wants brian to explain the wagon karak started on him. "for now, leaning ilya/malgin" still.

1151 (mdom): mdom jumps on my mburke bandwagon, villa points to mdom for that I suppose although COME ON MDOM I WANT TO SEE YOU POST MORE

1160: now corsakh is either a bad seer or a good wolf (make up your mind dood), tries to deflect a little attention back on him by saying he's not helping us get anything done.

1161: says to look at djstu dismissing him lightly (wtf does that mean??), look at corsakh wagoning (like, starting one? I don't get it), and again mentions ilya/malgin. ilya is getting a lot of villa points here.

1166: another interesting post. goes after corsakh pretty hard here, points to gtpitch giving corsakh support. also quotes a corsakh post in which corsakh said "voting mdom is bad." not sure what it means that mburke is quoting that in an effort to cast suspicion on corsakh, help reading that plz?

1167: going hard after corsakh again.

1169 (corsakh): just kind of an lol post as corsakh is now the second wolf to tell mburke in the thread to cool it with me

1176:quotes nightwood pointing out how bad mburke played in a turbo as an excuse for him playing weird/inexperienced. i'm a little worried that he's quoting nightwood so much but it's possible that nightwood is just a villa that mburke's latched onto to try to add credibility to what he says.

1216: uh oh, flip flopping on ilya: "based on his last 2 posts he looks more like an ignorant villa than a utr wolf." ilya losing some of the villa points he was accumulating. possible that mburke was giving himself cover if ilya got modkilled/voted off and was willing to risk putting heat on him since ilya wasn't helping the wolves anyway, with the payoff that if ilya was a wolf and got discovered it would make mburke look clear, but now that ilya made a few posts in a row, mburke maybe started thinking he should take the heat off of him since ilya might contribute to the wolves? just a scenario.

1228: votes A.E, small villa points to card2.0 I guess. also leaves goofy=villa and jobeen=villa as fake peeks for seer cover, or something. I think the last time he mentioned jobeen he was a possible wolf so more flip-flopping on jobeen = wolfy for jobeen.

1237: responding to chaser being like "why are ppl voting A.E and ilya", says they're the most UTR players...doesn't mean a lot though

1241: help me decipher this post, I don't know what the **** it means. quotes bingobango's post about ilya in which BB calls ilya wolfy (this is before BB was killed and outed as seer) and says "this means ilya isn't wolfish" (wat?). indicates possible wolves are: card (no), WER (no), mdom (flip-flop), nightwood (flip-flop), corsakh

1250: complete 180 on ilya, says that it's obvious based on his reg date/noob posts that he's a noob villa. the analysis I gave in 1216 about ilya possibly being a wolf is now looking way more likely.

1266: says that the malgin vote out of nowhere for nightwood is super suspicious and casts suspicion on malgin. this is kind of implying that nightwood is villagery, which is another flip-flop because the last time mburke mentioned nightwood it was in a "he's a wolf" context. actually yeah, 2 posts later he says the nightwood train is terribly bad, even though it was all of 23 posts ago that he thought nightwood was wolfy? wtf

1431: nothing much, votes malgin, claims he never liked the mrsbutton wagon

DAY 4:

1698: in yesterday's EoD cluster****, his only post (he doesn't even vote) is "where's brian when we need good advice?" weird, not sure what to think about that.

DAY 5:

2158: talking about ilya but no idea what he's trying to say, someone help plz

2164: quotes posts in which a.) I accuse card2.0, b.) card2.0 accuses brian of being most likely SK, c.) brian says it's 33/33/33 that WER is villa/wolf/SK, and says they're the best posts of today. major villa points to card2.0 obv, not sure what we're supposed to think about brian based on this.

2176: agrees w/ brian that maj'ing corsakh is bad

2205: when I start casting suspicion on brian yesterday says "killing brian today might be the worst vote ever." RED SIRENS, esp because I think mburke was feeling very comfortable with his position the last couple days (after the corsakh/buttons cluster**** at EoD which was the last time I suggested an mburke wagon, he'd been very much off everyone's radar and probably did not expect to get killed and thus outed as a wolf anytime soon).



I'd love to hear anyone and everyone's thoughts on this. I think today's an important day as we have lots of good new information to go over and we can get a lot of good work done.

Last edited by goofyballer; 05-06-2009 at 02:58 AM. Reason: fixing broken url, that's all, I promise!
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Old 05-06-2009, 02:59 AM   #2396
Slink
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

QUOTE FROM BRIAN: it didnt go blue for some reason but cant be arsed fixing it.
"
I can't shake the feeling that he prob has 1 wolf in his list of 4 villagers. Don't know which it is though.



So he's now wolfy on mdom/nightwood, who he had listed as villager earlier, along with ILB and slink. So I think slink is the suspicious one in his 4 villager list.
"


Got to be the most flawed logic I have ever heard. You put me under suspicion due to a "feeling" you have that he might put a wolf in his villa list?
And then GUESS that that person you had a feeling about is me? Give me a break.

Brian you are really starting to worry me. Guys I think we should be taking all his arguments with a grain of salt as I dont trust him at the moment. I dont believe you are a wolf so maybe this is a SK level or something but I have now got my eye on you.
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Old 05-06-2009, 03:14 AM   #2397
goofyballer
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Cliffs of my analysis:

- beer = villa (or SK I guess, I have no idea how to SK-hunt so I guess I'm more just trying to clear non-wolves)
- jobeen = suspicious, because of the way mburke repeatedly flip-flops on him which is the same thing he did with corsakh (a known wolf)
- karak = suspicious, as mburke tried to discredit brian's accusations of him in a subtle manner, mburke also flip-flopped on him later
- nightwood = suspicious, mburke did a lot of flip-flopping on him, see summaries of posts 1060/1241/1266 in which he changes sides on nightwood multiple times in the same day
- mdom - mburke mentions him a few times with a little flip-flopping but I think we need to look at this a little closer, not sure what to think about him (actually now that I think about it, what do you guys think about 1166 if we assume mdom = wolf?)
- ilya/dannykgb = suspicious, mburke throws him under the bus at first perhaps to gain bonus points if he gets lynched/modkilled as a UTR wolf, but once ilya makes a few posts in a row, I think it's possible that mburke decided his lifespan might be extended and thus changed his tune to try to give him more support
- card2.0 is looking pretty clear I think
- brian looks...I have no idea, I need help interpreting this
- I think we can read into mburke's d5 posts a lot as there was no heat on him all day so he probably thought he was going to live a bit longer

Differences w/ Brian's analysis of mburke:

- Disagree that mburke cleared ilya
- Disagree that he casts any doubt at all on slink
- Disagree that we already knew card2.0 was villa
- Disagree that karak is cleared, but Brian thinks he can be the SK (and I think he can be a wolf) so **** it let's wagon him.

I think I like Brian as a wagon candidate as well. Who do you guys like?
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Old 05-06-2009, 03:17 AM   #2398
cardassian
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Guys go read nightwood defending mburke over making the seer list a few days ago.

Even going to the extent of linking to a turbo just played.

Here's our wolves village.
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Old 05-06-2009, 03:20 AM   #2399
cardassian
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by nightwood View Post
mburke just a played a turbo (here , btw it's also a funny read about how clueless "experienced players" can be, wolves won with a sweep) in which he got lynched d1 as the seer. even when the wagon was already rollin fast, mburke still didn't claim seer.

so stupid mistakes != wolfy per se
I reckon it's wolf wolf here for sure.
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Old 05-06-2009, 03:20 AM   #2400
cardassian
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Goofy you're a fracking genius!
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