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Old 05-04-2009, 03:38 PM   #1551
Ainex
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Here's a run down of Slink with no analysis:


#577 first post of the game

#603 posts his leans:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slink View Post
Hello again guys: Here's my idea on things so far after my first proper analysis. There is a lot of noise about ITT but my basic leanings are:

VILLAS

BEER, MDOM, STARK: Mostly because Kershardla went after them D1 and was a wolf.

NIGHTWOOD: Said dnky was a villa today when he was already dead. Would have to be a pretty good level if it came from a wolf who nkilled him.

LEAN VILLA

BITCHIE BEE: Tone only.

CORSARK: Good Helpful Villa Posts.



LEAN WOLF

WER: Defended by Kesh before his wolfy death. But otherwise posts are very helpful to the village so could be ok.

Bingo Bango: For voting Beer D1.

Malgin: For turning up very late D1 and voting with no real reason.

Djstu: All his accusations d1 were against villa like people (beer, stark, WU). fishy, but could just be confused d1 villa.

Mrs button: All over the place at the end of d1. Felt like he jumped on WU but jumped off quick when it looked like he was lynched to avoid looking suspicious.

NO IDEA: Everyone else.

I am looking forward to day 3 or 4 where we can really look closer at who goes and why.
#630 votes Malgin for being UTR

#654 by Bitchi

Quote:
Originally Posted by BitchiBee View Post
Should Clarify that I got killed that game early on, D4ish I believe, and stopped following the game to closely thus my read on slink is based mostly on those early days. So if Slink did heat up as the game progressed we have a definate 'betting" tell to work with on slink.
#777 Gtpitch analyzes Slink

#865 his method and clears Bitchi:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slink View Post
It is true Bitchie/ Iron Tamer, I gather a lot of info in the first few days and then once about 4-5 people are gone then I fire up a bit more. I really think days 1-2 are a crap shoot so dont say too much. But as I said yesterday I missed the whole first day by accident. For the record I have you down as full villa now too.
#898 says goofy's post is wolfy

#921 doesn't like the Brian/JFrost wagons says they feel v/v

#939
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slink View Post
Pile on Malgin and see what happens. Gotta be better than the other two.
#961 Doesn't like the UTR coming out to vote says he may change his vote

#970 Doesn't like Ilya's "utr" vote for malgin

#1014 Votes JD @5:58

#1026 votes Malgin @ 6:00 nothing has changed in the 2min that I can see and JFrost is mislynched in a tie with Brian.

#1102 asks for leans

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slink View Post
WOW. Nice result serial killer. We must buy you a beer.

I would like to ask again for the following guys to give me their thoughts on who is wolfy and villa like:

chaser
malgin
a.ertjberg
Illya

Whoever out of this quad contributes the least ITT will get my vote in 5 hours time and I will try to drum up other customers against them.

Can't remember what post # this is:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slink View Post
Here's how I feel about things at the moment. I realise I may be a bit hypocritical attacking those who dont post much but I like to do a lot of evidence gathering and then send it out in one big hit per day before I go to sleep. I dont like to do my thinking out loud and jam up the thread. And trying to get the UTR's to post cant be a bad thing however it happens. My thoughts:

VILLAS

- Both Brains are ok in my book for going after gtpitch before his demise.

- BitchieBee: Good as his analysis in the last 24 hours has been near spot on in my book.

- ILB: From being targeted by kersharlra early as everyone has stated.

- Nightwood: As gtpitch went after him yesterday: But seems to have a bit of an ego or something that he needs to lose for going after bitchie.

Lean Villa

- River: Defended JF and nightwood and attacked wolfy persons like aergberg and malgin. So ok in my book so far.
-
Not sure

-WER: Works well for the village and seems ok, but if you look at his history a) defended by kesh the wolf before his death b) pushing the WU vote c) pushing the JF vote makes me wonder. but the comment of GT's before he went "OK Ill vote for JF onyl because I trust you" makes me feel like gt was pushing blame onto him, so I think WER may have just been unlucky.

-Jumangi: Voted Brian, voted WU, voted nightwood are all bad items. But also defended JF and called gtpitch a wolf at times so his efforts blance out.

-Mrs Button: Dont trust him for jumping on bitchie, WU and nightwood early. But defended JD at times too. Posts and votes are all over the place which feels strange.

-Bingo: Lack of evidence but did say JF was villa before his death.

-Mdom: His confusing way of writing always throws me off, and his votes for brian make me doubt him, but the fact he defended beer hard makes him neutral in my book.

-JD: Immediately attacked beer when he joined. But lack of other info leans me neither way.

-Stark: His posts come out neutral with a lot against karak but then changes his mind completely. Dont know what to think .

-Corsark: Day 2 he talked about Gtpitch being a possible wolf. but his votes for nightwood and his general confusion of posts has him in the middle for me.

- Chaser: Defended Brain early, but his lack of posts early and a vote for JF makes him neutral in my book.

Leaning Wolf


- A.Ertbjerg: Attacked Frost post 345 with no evidence. Jummepd on the WU bandwagon (417) and general wolfy UTR behaviour.

- Card: Voted Brian, attacked JD at times, voted WU. All wolfy triats.

- Ilya: Very strange tag along vote for Malgin late. Just get a bad feeling about the way he tries to offload blame and not try to help the village at all.

-Mburke: Attacked Beer day 1, then caedus day 2 pushing a wagon against caedus hard before he died. Wolfy evidence.

-Djstu: Attacked JF d1, voted beer, and attacked Brian so hard that I doubt him a lot.

-Karak: Said Brain is wolfy day 1 and jumped on the JF vote late with no reason. Defended by Gtpitch day 2. Not good.

- Ainex/ Jobeen/ Malgin: Dont know fully through lack of info. Which in my mind puts them in the very wolfy category until proven otherwise.


I have only played one game before this, and in it many wolves where UTR so I mistrust them most of all. It may be bad but I am happy to vote for anyone who refuses to post until better evidence comes out.

An A.Ertbjerg, Ilya, mburke, karak wagon is good for me today. I'm off to sleep for 5 hours or so but for now I

vote A.Ertbjerg

#1113 points out Gtpitch defending Karak
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slink View Post
Karak getting defended by a wolf here looks bad for Karak.
#1199 votes A.Ertberger

#1313 Has had 'trouble' with Malgin and will switch to him to see either Malgin or Ertberg lynched

#1316 unvotes votes Malgin

#1396 Unvotes votes Ertberger because so many on Malgin makes him 'nervous'

#1413 decides his vote for ertberger is useless as he is only one voting for him so switches back to Malgin

#1517 feeling lost and paranoid promises future analysis.

I just found these posts interesting:

Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Like_Beer View Post
Here are your wolves:

Karak567
Wraths Unanimous
chaser1942
Slink
BitchiBee
WinEvryRacex
mdom88

and the Serial Killer is:

gtpitch

You can take it to the bank

BTW, I'm villager just like in every other game I've played *sigh*
Quote:
Originally Posted by gtpitch View Post
Caedus and WER (because I trust you both as villa)

Jack >>>> JD??? you're sure?
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Old 05-04-2009, 03:46 PM   #1552
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

If we're gonna keep misspelling A.E's name can we just start calling him "Ertburger"? That sounds way more fun.
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Old 05-04-2009, 03:47 PM   #1553
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

I actually feel that Slink is pretty villagery having re-read his posts and Nightwood sort of misrepresented him in #1521 where he analyzes the vote switches to malgin. I think Slink sort of realized that AE was a throw away vote so switched back...not really a great voting policy to change in the beginning but it seems he made his mind up in the end.

ILB's list is simply interesting to me but probably not that important as it was early in the game and likely just supposition.

The gtpitch comment is interesting though where he trusts Caedus and WER as villas. JD was facing some decent heat here and gt appeals to everyone's trust of Caedus as such an experienced player and then throw's in WER as well. Quite easy for a wolf to throw in one person no one's going to accuse of being a wolf for a while and then an actual wolf (WER) to build credit. GT also defended Karak which is interesting. Two players who are starting to become wolfy in my eyes also defended by the special wolf back in the early days.
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Old 05-04-2009, 03:52 PM   #1554
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
If we're gonna keep misspelling A.E's name can we just start calling him "Ertburger"? That sounds way more fun.
Ya I realized half-way through my post that I can't remember how his name is actually spelled but you know who I mean.
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Old 05-04-2009, 03:53 PM   #1555
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

I would also like to say that Jumanji is playing exactly as he did in the SSFR crossover game as other's have stated. He should be a consideration for a wagon as well.
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Old 05-04-2009, 03:55 PM   #1556
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Hrm before an hour ago I would have recommended turbolynching Ainex based on his play up to this point but that seems like pretty villagery analysis and I kinda wouldn't mind a JD wagon now. He already looked wagony to begin with based on the three green squares next to his name in the last post chart.
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Old 05-04-2009, 03:56 PM   #1557
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Er, sorry, one red and two green squares, but lol at saymond getting subbed out and replaced with someone who posts less than him.
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Old 05-04-2009, 03:57 PM   #1558
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Hey goofy are you the SK? You're pretty obviously villa after the two NKs. Is that why you wanted to play down Chasers peek on you and you're acting all confused about the SK?
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Old 05-04-2009, 04:01 PM   #1559
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

For reference this stuff.

Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
st4rk, I think cors4kh is th3 most lik3ly r34d th4t ch4s3r l3ft us
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
btw how lol would it b3 if th3 SK is th3 on3 who kill3d ch4s3r 4nd th3 wolv3s ar3 just t3rribl3
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
I don't know but h3 s33m3d sup3r unsuspicious in 4ny r3g4rd, I don't 3v3n know why th3 wolv3s would kill him wh3n th3 only sup3r solid clu3 h3 l3ft w4s cors4kh...m4k3s m3 wond3r if som3 of his oth3r r34ds w3r3 4lso on point 4nd th4t sc4r3d th3m?
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
If we're going under the assumption that the wolves might have killed card, doesn't that make corsakh the SK in this scenario?

The whole SK thing just explodes my head, I don't know how we're possibly supposed to figure out who he is. Seems like he could just play a normal villa game while killing someone off every night and the only way we could get him is to get lucky with a mislynch (or if the wolves get him).
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
Then why on earth would the SK kill chaser if the SK isn't corsakh? I think we have to assume he was the wolves' kill

Doesn't really matter anyway as corsakh doesn't have too long to live and we'll find out soon enough.
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Old 05-04-2009, 04:29 PM   #1560
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

lol, no, I was the first one who even brought up the word "SK" in relation to the night kills which is obv something I wouldn't draw attention to if I was the SK.

Not to mention that my play style this game (being pretty helpful to the village imo!) doesn't carry with it a long life expectancy and I expect to go pretty quickly once the wolves are done seerhunting. If I was the SK I'd be doing everything possible to stay off wolf radar.
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Old 05-04-2009, 04:38 PM   #1561
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Hey guys, I have a big exam today so I won't be here for EoD, nor be too active. But here are my thoughts for the day.

Corsahk for the reasons I have stated, he is a better wagon imo, as while his fate is set in stone, in some rare circumstances a nk or information coming from sakh's death might clear btns, so lets leave him until tommorrow.

@00brian, if you could write up an anaylisis of Jujami that would be fantastic, he is definately someone to look into.

@Nightwood, I hope after you've sobered up and come back itt you'll have learned your lesson not to post Drunk . But don't worry I won't hold it against you.

To clarify to goofy/nightwood et. al. both J.D/A.E are terrible wagons for today

J.D. is utr and the combo has wolfy posts yes. However when the wagons where tied on day 2. at 4Brian/3JF/3JD, GTpitch joined the J.D. Wagon at 8 minutes to go before EoD. it would be an extreme stretch to say that GT choose to bus his partner here when he could have easily joined the JF/Brian wagons. This makes J.D. very likely to be a villager, and should kept alive until he spews/is peeked wolf imo.

A.E. is a wagon I would agree with, however he hasn't posted today, and was inactive yesterday. Very likely he is going to get modkilled- so lets not waste a valuble lynch on him.
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Old 05-04-2009, 04:43 PM   #1562
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by BitchiBee View Post
J.D. is utr and the combo has wolfy posts yes. However when the wagons where tied on day 2. at 4Brian/3JF/3JD, GTpitch joined the J.D. Wagon at 8 minutes to go before EoD. it would be an extreme stretch to say that GT choose to bus his partner here when he could have easily joined the JF/Brian wagons. This makes J.D. very likely to be a villager, and should kept alive until he spews/is peeked wolf imo.

A.E. is a wagon I would agree with, however he hasn't posted today, and was inactive yesterday. Very likely he is going to get modkilled- so lets not waste a valuble lynch on him.
Both fair points, I agree.
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Old 05-04-2009, 04:48 PM   #1563
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Hmm I didn't notice that pitch vote on d2...very good point Bitchi.
Also Goofy...I know I have been afk alot (I work fri/sat/sun) but why would you want to turbo lynch anyone who is utr? Why not just wagon me and see how things go?
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Old 05-04-2009, 04:50 PM   #1564
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverFenix View Post
I need to run out, I dont like a nightwood vote at all. Brian im indifferent on, cant say much more on that due to other game. Karak I dont get. I like having JF around and he hasn't seemed wolfy. I think I gave enough reasons to go w/ JumBo if people want to do that and switch off of Nwood. The more I think about it I'm suspicious of Malgin. Some extra votes on JumBo would be nice to see how he squirms and others can decide on him.

Malgin
This is where the wagon started for Malgin. This was d2. He didn't get lynched that day but got a couple. There doesn't appear to be much reasoning behind this post. Can you explain why you voted Malgin on d2 and then stuck with him on d3? I couldn't find anything other than you agreeing with someone for voting him on d3. And post more. If you're a villa, we could use some input from an experienced player.

Ilya hopping on this wagon right away looks pretty bad as well. He also voted Malgin on d2 and d3.
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Old 05-04-2009, 04:52 PM   #1565
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by corsakh View Post
You mean that card was trying too hard to look like a seer and pups bought it? Maybe, but it I would think this mostly depends on who is on their roster.
Who is on their roster?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jobeen View Post
About the SK i have a theory... he knows all the roles of the players and is making his kills to keep the numbers balanced to give him the chance to be the last man standing.
SK = OTI?

Quote:
Originally Posted by djstu View Post
I really don't see how we can not vote corsakh today. He's jumping through hoops pretty well but that peek is damning and it's the only way to figure out if the wolves killed chaser or if it was the SK.

Sorry cors, but ya gotta die.
I dont see how cors = wolf would tell us that. Cors wagon has wheels and it is a solid one but I dont see how a potential seer peek coming back true/false tells us who determined what NK.
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Old 05-04-2009, 04:54 PM   #1566
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ainex View Post
Hmm I didn't notice that pitch vote on d2...very good point Bitchi.
Also Goofy...I know I have been afk alot (I work fri/sat/sun) but why would you want to turbo lynch anyone who is utr? Why not just wagon me and see how things go?
Wagoning utr players is obv a better idea. I think JD and Jumanji wagons would be good alternatives. Jumanji especially, his play is really starting to look like his wolf play in the ssfr game. He has a couple posts today so he isn't afk
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Old 05-04-2009, 04:58 PM   #1567
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

ugh, can we not wagon utrs yet? cors is a good wagon today, and if some of you have thoughts about someone else, please post them...I think there are like 1 or 2 votes on about 4 different people other than cors at the moment
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Old 05-04-2009, 05:09 PM   #1568
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Bingo I didn't like the nwood wagon and I was against JF being lynched. I did a reread of JumBo and thought he was wolfy but there was no smoking gun plus his wagon already had wheels. Malgin coming in right at eod d1 rubbed me the wrong way and with his tone I decided to start a wagon on him D2. On D3 I thought Bitchi had solid analysis of his recent posts and I liked the players on the wagon. With the mass vote changing at eod D2 and him escaping I thought it was possible we were wagoning a wolf on D3.
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Old 05-04-2009, 05:11 PM   #1569
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

yeah binogbango, i completely agree with Jumangi.

its weird, if he knows he played the last game the same, wouldnt he change it up whether he was wolf or villa? i mean, if hes wolf again, he wouldnt want to come across the same, and if hes villa, hed have more reason to come across diff, since hes actually villa. i think i might just be leveling myself here though...

i dunno if ill get to an analysis tho, i need to run to a doctors appt, might not get back with enough time b4 eod
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Old 05-04-2009, 05:11 PM   #1570
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by starkwired View Post
ugh, can we not wagon utrs yet? cors is a good wagon today, and if some of you have thoughts about someone else, please post them...I think there are like 1 or 2 votes on about 4 different people other than cors at the moment
i think we should be lynching UTR's what is the point of complaining about them if we just let them get deep into the game everytime i agree that cors is a good wagon but i think we need to lynch at least 1 of them soon to hopefully get the others out of hiding
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Old 05-04-2009, 05:43 PM   #1571
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

they are getting modkilled, so lynching them is a complete waste of time
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Old 05-04-2009, 05:47 PM   #1572
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

OTI, can you confirm plz that "I'm trying to play a UTR wolf, don't blow my cover" is not an acceptable excuse to avoid getting modkilled?
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Old 05-04-2009, 05:51 PM   #1573
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by O0Brian0O View Post
yeah binogbango, i completely agree with Jumangi.

its weird, if he knows he played the last game the same, wouldnt he change it up whether he was wolf or villa? i mean, if hes wolf again, he wouldnt want to come across the same, and if hes villa, hed have more reason to come across diff, since hes actually villa. i think i might just be leveling myself here though...

i dunno if ill get to an analysis tho, i need to run to a doctors appt, might not get back with enough time b4 eod
Yea playing wolf in such a similar way seems odd. He hasn't been active much the past 2 days. Reading through his posts again it seems that most of his reads have been pretty good. He said JF was a villa and was quite adamant about this. He called GTP a wolf. His 2 other biggest wolf leans seem to be nightwolf and brian. I don't know about Brian but nightwolf as a wolf is plausible imo. That wagon has been started a few times and never taken off.
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Old 05-04-2009, 06:16 PM   #1574
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by BingoBango View Post
Yea playing wolf in such a similar way seems odd. He hasn't been active much the past 2 days. Reading through his posts again it seems that most of his reads have been pretty good. He said JF was a villa and was quite adamant about this. He called GTP a wolf. His 2 other biggest wolf leans seem to be nightwolf and brian. I don't know about Brian but nightwolf as a wolf is plausible imo. That wagon has been started a few times and never taken off.
I don't think I made this many posts in the last game. I've called it like I see it, and for the most part I've been right. Far more, than most people that are here. No one wants to jump on my wagons and I'm tired of trying to start them over and over when no one listens. I'm a villa, and it's pathetic how the lynchings have gone. Like WER said I believe, all the wagons that end up going off are last minuet and horrible.
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Old 05-04-2009, 06:19 PM   #1575
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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Originally Posted by JumanjiBoard View Post
I don't think I made this many posts in the last game. I've called it like I see it, and for the most part I've been right. Far more, than most people that are here. No one wants to jump on my wagons and I'm tired of trying to start them over and over when no one listens. I'm a villa, and it's pathetic how the lynchings have gone. Like WER said I believe, all the wagons that end up going off are last minuet and horrible.
Yea but you had to defend yourself early. Since then you haven't posted that much.

Anyway, who is your leading wagon candidate right now?
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