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Old 05-02-2009, 02:05 AM   #1076
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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Originally Posted by mdom88 View Post
why would this matter? if the wolves think that the SK will kill a villa/seer tonight then by your logic they should go for the SK kill so that way a villa/seer dies last night AND the SK dies before he's able to "rebalance" the game tomorrow night
Because. it's more important for the wolves to play their anti-village game and only worry about the sk once they get a grasp on his motivations. Btw a dead wolf on d1 is pretty huge so I doubt the wolves could assume the SK would "rebalance" by wolfhunting again tomorrow.
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:10 AM   #1077
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9pm EOD)

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Originally Posted by BitchiBee View Post
My money is on a seerhunt, which means we should be keeping votes off of goofy. Its a stretch to think that the wolves will be hunting the SK, as they had no idea the SK's strategy on n2, as the n1 kill could of been something random. Now that 2 wolves have been killed, the wolves are likely more inclined to SK hunt and their NK's for future nights will likely reveal less information.

As for the strong player argument, that is pretty ******ed. As strong as caedus is getting the seer is far more important. Caedus can guess at a wolf, while the seer knows DUCY?
Agree. Seerhunt is very likely since their NK is partially "covered" from analysis by the SK. Goofy seemed slightly villagery to me before, and with this, i will def. not be voting him.
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:15 AM   #1078
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Wow so v/v wagons again yesterday. I ought to be able to piece together a huge piece of this puzzle given that I am the only one who can confirm that - unfortunately I'm still drunkie atm. But wow - can't believe I wound up flipping, I would def had Caedus read as super wolfy mcwolfenstein for letting that happen. 3/6 (1/2) of wolves are definitely UTR; I'm going to halt my Karak wolfhunt to go after them next. I hate UTR players so much that at this point I'll lynch all non-contributors before a contributor.
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:16 AM   #1079
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

I really can't believe you guys let it come down to a flip yesterday, so vry srsly disappointed with this village.
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:17 AM   #1080
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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fwiw on d1, 00brian00 pretty much tried to lead a crusade on gtpitch
Yep, 00Brian00 is pretty much cleared.
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:17 AM   #1081
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

haha, detective brian ITT.

o**** i didnt cap. all the letters!
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:18 AM   #1082
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

I'm very confused as the Mrs.Buttons motivations. Heavily leaning village idiot .
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:23 AM   #1083
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9pm EOD)

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Originally Posted by BitchiBee View Post

As for the strong player argument, that is pretty ******ed. As strong as caedus is getting the seer is far more important. Caedus can guess at a wolf, while the seer knows DUCY?
Yeah I agree.

Also anyone else think mburke is looking wolfie today?

i read his first post as wolfie d1. yesterday i thought maybe not maybe he's just a villa who has a personal thing with goofy, however when i mentioned that he got very defnesive about it.

Also looking back at gtpitch's posts i see
Quote:
Originally Posted by gtpitch View Post
Ok fine. Lets stop this pissing match. Its probably v\v anyway and not helping anyone.

Please to find some wolves now?
Talking about goofy and mburke. This is exactly the kind of thing I'd expect a wolf to say if goofy/mburke was w-v.

the reason being a wolf isn't going to be defending another wolf hard and this is nice and subtle. it could also be a way of quietly telling another wolf that they're not going to get anywhere with that one, kinda a focus you're attention elsewhere as you're gonna bring heat on yourself playing like this.

Now as Caedus's most likely peek was goofy then the chances of goofy being vill are greater than normal (as the chance that caedus was a seerhunt is >0%) therefore mburke05 is the likely wolf in this pissing match.

Now if we look at mBurke's last villa game he kept on at goofy and around this stage of the game started to build a case against him.

Here (after the nk which if it was a seerhunt clears goofy) he comes in and all of a sudden drops the goofy case and tries talking about how win looks wolfy because gtpitch was a wolf. his reasoning here is lolbad considering win clearly thougth gtpitch was wolfie yesterday and voiced it. I don't think he'd do that as a level as a wolf as it'd mean busing an experienced player that was his buddy later on. (would make heaps more sense to be doing this move with a less experienced player).
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:26 AM   #1084
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Oh i nearly forgot then he goes and posts a seer list!

WTF!!!!

not a vill move to be sure.

Think i'd lynch him for that alone.

mBurke05
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:30 AM   #1085
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

You bring up an interesting case vs. karak Card.

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Originally Posted by cardassian View Post
Also i find it strange that he had agreed with the case against brian, pushed the brian wagon, voted brian and then changed last minute to jack with no reasoning and what looks to me to be an excuse.
This part though would only make Karak wolf if karak/brian were ww. But that is extremely unlikely as pushing a wagon on a wolf then snap changing last minute to someone else when the wolf you were wagoning is about to get killed is super fpsy (and bad).

Thus if karak were wolf, brian is likely villager. But then why would Karak spazz change if the wagons were VV?
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:33 AM   #1086
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9pm EOD)

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Originally Posted by nightwood View Post
lalalalalaa
yeah. that was GTP's fake peek of karak, which he then used to construct cases against other players. overacted imo.
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:34 AM   #1087
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Talking about goofy and mburke. This is exactly the kind of thing I'd expect a wolf to say if goofy/mburke was w-v.
Very nice anaylisis Cardassian, your case vs. Mburke is very strong. Alot of it comes from this assumption though, (and that implicitly goofy is very likely to be villa due to the nk, which I agree with) please explain it.
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:35 AM   #1088
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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Originally Posted by BitchiBee View Post

Thus if karak were wolf, brian is likely villager. But then why would Karak spazz change if the wagons were VV?
Would only make sense if JD was a wolf imo.

he was the third wagon and by changing his vote it meant that even if there was a late ovte for JD he was protected from the red ranger. Otherwise it could be a level considering he knows we'll think it wouldn't make sense to do a v-v jump there.
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:37 AM   #1089
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

i'll respond to car's stuff more thoroughly tomorrow b/c its 2:30 am here but in quick reply

a) it's my second game and i did that last game i was in and wasn't chastized for it, i really don't see how it's out of line given the mass chaos that the 3-4 wagons we have is unraveling

b) your reasoning on d1 for me being a wolf when i posted "its 2:30am est ill BB tom" was ridiculous as well. it was 2:30 am then, it is 2:30 am now est. sorry you're in NZ or wherever you reside.

c) i dropped wolf d1 b/c he acted the EXACT same way he acted in our first game(posting with fluff first day, posting band 2nd day, and then simply defending himself/creating wagons 3-5) as wolf. i'm sorry but i don't buy that he would simply level this group that way. in addition i ruled this game he wasn't villa 1) b/c of the defensive nature he took this game vs the other game i was in w/ him when he attempted to UTR when i attempted to give him flak, and 2) b/c if he had a power role id expect him to take a more active role which he hasnt

cya in morning (est time)
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:38 AM   #1090
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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Originally Posted by BitchiBee View Post
Very nice anaylisis Cardassian, your case vs. Mburke is very strong. Alot of it comes from this assumption though, (and that implicitly goofy is very likely to be villa due to the nk, which I agree with) please explain it.
My assumption is that the chances of caedus nk being a seerhunt is >0%.

caedus "peeked" goofy therefore the chances of goofy being a villa are greater than average.
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:40 AM   #1091
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

mBurke I understand that we live in different time zones.

I don't unnderstand however why a villager would feel the need to come in and make that post d1 and then leave again. Looks like a wolf trying not to be seen as utr to me.
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:41 AM   #1092
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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My assumption is that the chances of caedus nk being a seerhunt is >0%.

caedus "peeked" goofy therefore the chances of goofy being a villa are greater than average.
I agree with that, I want you to explain this.

Quote:
Talking about goofy and mburke. This is exactly the kind of thing I'd expect a wolf to say if goofy/mburke was w-v.
And also, refering to Mburke's last post, he spewed hun .
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:41 AM   #1093
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

oh can anyone confirm if there is night tonight or if we have the long day weekend thingy?
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:46 AM   #1094
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Well when i was a wolf (2nd long game i played) the wolves in general didn't defend each other a lot as we didn't want to create solid links between ourselves.

however small off the cuff remarks that we thought wouldn't be looked into too much (like gtpitch's post) we used hoping that either

a) the other wolf would get our message to calm down
b) hoping to divert attention elsewhere
c) give out the general impression that the players were village without really saying too much ourselves
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Old 05-02-2009, 02:58 AM   #1095
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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Originally Posted by cardassian View Post
oh can anyone confirm if there is night tonight or if we have the long day weekend thingy?
I think theres a long weekend. I'll be on a plane almost all day today but I should be back in time for EOD assuming that is on sunday night. I'll try to post some thoughts before I leave though
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Old 05-02-2009, 03:13 AM   #1096
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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oh can anyone confirm if there is night tonight or if we have the long day weekend thingy?
pretty sure there is no night tonight
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Old 05-02-2009, 03:14 AM   #1097
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

yeah there won't be night until sunday night
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Old 05-02-2009, 03:22 AM   #1098
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

vote mburke for being a raging moron and posting seers.

Seriously wtf?
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Old 05-02-2009, 03:29 AM   #1099
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by gtpitch View Post
This is basically 100% villager, IMO.

Anyone voting for Brian needs to gtfo off now

Quote:
Originally Posted by gtpitch View Post
I don't have anything real strong. But I will say the post that I quoted above seems 100% genuine villager to me. A wolf doesn't call someone out like he did, analyze the posts, and then offer to be lynched the next day if he is wrong on D2. If this were D6 or 7 I'd think differently. I just can't see wolf Brian sacrificing himself this early.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gtpitch View Post
Answered anyway. I'm really AFK for now but I'll say again... lynching Brian today is fail

alright guys what do we think of this sequence from yesterday.

seems like he quickly went to defend brian, then backed off and kinda was trying to not commit to anything maybe, while still defending brian
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Old 05-02-2009, 03:29 AM   #1100
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

gonan keep my vote on brian for now, he just keeps getting wolfier and wolfier as the days go on

brian
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