I think our only two wolf-canidate paris are jumanji/jobeen or jumanji/stark (If goofy is a wolf than props to him, he wins, and I really doubt the possibility of a jobeen/stark wolf team based on their interactions together).

Take on O0brian nk: I'm not entirely sure it was as fpsy as you all believe. O0Brian did vote jumanji yesterday before switching to his god-awful goofy vote, and if jumanji is a wolf (something I think is very likely) the wolves would like to eliminate any people who have shown a tendency to vote for him in the past. O0Brian voting goofy for the day just gave them cover, making it look like some crazy FPS crap to try and frame goofy.

I have a couple reasons for suspecting jumanji atm, firstly he's been UTR and stayed that way the entire game, secondly he's been absolutely perfect in his reads so far and has attempted to use that has a defense. Imo it's not a defense as it's very easy to not get reads wrong when you have perfect information, and considering the success rate this village has had jumanji being so right and so quiet strike me as very wolfish. One would think that a villa with reads as good as he claims to have would actually help go after the last two wolves, he's just kinda sat there.

His partner is a harder pin, the two possibilites being stark and jobeen. Both have been outwardly helpful recently, jobeen in her own crazy dumb sort of way but she's making an effort, stark's doing decently with his analysis. Both of their behavior is very different from when they started out the game however, as both stayed UTR for quite a long time. I don't know which one I'd pick to be the 2nd wolf yet, as search as I might the closest to a smoking gun I've found was stark's offhand card=wolf nk comment and he didn't die immediately like I thought he would.

I think the easier route for me to express my opinions is first to deal with their obvious defenses, and then decided on which defense is more likely.

Jobeen's is gonna be that she constantly voted for jumanji early on in the game, asking the question "why the hell would a wolf vote for her own partner so often?" There are actually several good reasons why a wolf would do that: It gives him villa points if the wolf he's voting for ever goes down, it only puts the wolf in danger if he's being wagoned and simply saying "I don't like jumanji, I'm gonna vote him" does not a wagon make, and it sheilds the voting wolf from being looked at because he never votes for mislynched villagers. Now, I've always had the read that jobeen is a dumb villa, but it's entirely possible now that I think about it that she was told to play a dumb villa in the d1 wolfchat by her buddies. It's the only play for her that would have worked, and if she hadn't have gotten instructions from better wolves if she were a wolf I'll be amazed. Also notice how in these last few day's she's mostly abandoned the jumanji wagon entirely, has instead gone so far as to declared him cleared through bad logic, and has instead decided to focus her insanity on myself and stark. This, I believe, is significant. Her random voting for jumanji wouldn't have put him in any real siginificant danger when there were 7 villagers who would all just ignore her vote and opinions, now however it's a different story because we're down to 5 players and every single vote is critical.

Stark's defense is mostly that he's being a helpful villager, and imo he's playing that role pretty well. But the card= wolf nk possible slip continues to bug me; specifically, why didn't he die that night and what can we gain from it? It helps now they we know BB was the SK, and I've come up with two possible answers to the question. 1) Stark was wrong, card wasn't the wolf nk, and that's why neither camp killed him. 2) Stark was right and is a wolf, made a slip and revealed information he shouldn't have, and BB instead of killing him tried to FPS it and nail the 2nd wolf while keep stark (a confirmed wolf to her) alive for as long as she needed. The crucial piece of information here, who killed card v1, is missing and I'll be re-reading card up to the day he was killed to see if I can glean any possible reason the wolves might have thought he was a seer, but I think both of those possibilities are about equally likely right now.

Ok I've re-read d3, or whatever the day before card was killed, and looking at it from the perspective of a seerhunting wolf it's entirely possible that card was a seerhunt kill. He left one post with what looked like a fairly clear ainex peek here (notice how for all his other villa's he puts some reasoning behind his read, ainex is blank) and went after mburke very hard early in the day (he has a good arguement based off a very very subtle read) and never changed his vote at the EOD despite the fact that mburke wasn't a wagon and he was around to see the EOD action, as shown by a post asking about what were the arguements for the chaser/bingo wagons. The wolves might have taken this as card being a seer with Ainex=villa as his d1 peek and mburke=wolf as his d2 peek. Card also mentions mburke on d2 and says that he's suspicious of him but will look into it later (IE, the next day, after he could peek him). So yeah, Cardv1 could very well have been a seerhunt kill.

So that would mean BB killed chaser, one of our seers. Looking at this I think it's entirely possible as well. BB obviously was gunning for a wolf, judging by her targeting throughout the game, and chaser was one of the leading wagons that fell off by the EOD. BB could have read him as a wolf and nked him based on that suspicion, and it was just unlucky for us that chaser was a seer.

Still don't know which pair I like better atm, as jobeen's recent behavior has been twitchy, but the chances that stark made a slip just went up in my eyes. I was 65-35 that jobeen was the wolf and stark villa, but it's almost 50-50 right now. Either way I'm leaning toward a jumanji vote since he's present in both possibilties and reads very much like a wolf to me.

I feel like I'm talking to a void here, I don't even get zombies to talk too

well on that note, I think I need to do my djstu reread

ok analysis forthcoming

bah, I was typing something up but had an idea:

goofy, this is directed solely at you...

1. Assuming each of us is a villa (while I think there's a small chance you are a wolf, there's nothing I can do about it now), that leaves 2 wolves and 1 villa.

2. If we can lock up who the other villa is and get them on our side and to vote with us, we can win, no matter what happens. The only problem is jobeen is not going to side with me under any circumstances. So regardless of what jobeen is, we cannot get her on our side.

3. So how about trying to determine which of djstu/jumanji is more likely to be a villa and then moving forward in that manner? I see no real positive options here because of today's situation, but this might be easier than trying to figure out exact pairs. Let's take it one day at a time.

i await it eagerly.

ok re: djstu

1. His voting pattern sucks. Not that we have really done any better, but he has not voted for a wolf (that we know of) besides corsakh, unless I missed something.

2. HE was the first one to suggest card was the wolf NK, not me. Obv this makes his accusations towards me a huge wtf moment.

3. He is ardently defending jobeen for awhile. I was as well, FWIW, so I don't think this is particularly wolfy...in fact I think it gives him substantial villa points. However, he later proclaims that having jobeen around in any must-lynch scenario would be awful. This is definitely spot on given how jobeen is playing and seems ridiculous coming from a wolf, who would certainly want the confusion and idiocy.

4. His backtracking after attacking me earlier makes logical sense (when discussing BB and her not NKing me, despite having money reads), when as a wolf he could have just leaped to a conclusion.

5. His general tone seems to be one of indifference, except when he spots something that he thinks is true, and then he harps on that for a long time. This, to me, can be either super villa or super wolf...alas I do not know enough about his style to say one way or the other.

Feel free to add in here, but I'm reducing djstu's wolfiness potential down a bit.

As I stated above, I would rather we figure out who is more likely to be VILLA and persuade them to join our cause. It would be absolutely awful if we ended today with a 2/1/1 or even a 2/2/1 type thing where the wolves have an easy win because we are divided.

nope, I suggested that we look into the possibility that card was a wolf nk. You said unequivocally that card was the wolf nk, something at complete odds with what the rest of us had generally agreed on (that the SK killed card to protect himself).

There's a difference, one is somebody saying we should look at all the possibilties and not just focus only on the most likely one, and the other is expressing with no doubt whatsoever that the most unlikely possibility is what happened when you should have no reason to think so. Unless, of course, you know exactly who killed whom, which makes you a wolf.

I'm very tempted to vote the first person that tries to start a wagon on me. Djtsu you are very close to getting my vote. If it gets maj'ed and you're a villa, then its tough luck, but as the only person here im sure is a villa, I need to be aggressive on who I wish to vote for.

I can see how you interpreted what I said earlier to be like that, but I did use the words "come to a consensus" because I legitimately was not positive at the time (or now) that card was in fact the SK kill, I just thought that the group had determined that he was. Obviously I got it backwards because of my personal, original inclination, something which it appears you shared.

DO NOT VOTE YET!

also please offer some analysis, we desperately need it

gahhhhhhh seriously? you're gonna just spite-vote anybody who votes you? Do you even WANT to win?

jumanji, if you really are villa, please wait until goofy comes in so we can talk about things, if you lynch djstu and you are wrong, we are finished

According to your expert analysis, I'm a wolf though so what would it matter if I voted? Last game I played, the only reason the villa had a chance at end was because a villa came out and voted. I think the person with the first vote is the one that has the game in his hands and I'm not sure I'd rather give that ability to anyone else. I don't trust any of you really at this point.

I think you're the most likely wolf, but there's no need to test that theory right now ffs. If you are villa and vote me it's game over.

we have 6.5 hours till EOD, if you are villa you should start trying to convince me of that, rather than threatening to toss the game.

I don't threaten to toss the game, but to be frank I don't care enough about werewolf to even say I'll be here at a certain time. The NBA playoffs run during EOD, and that's more important to me. Sure I've been UTR, but I actually play a lot of poker on top of other things. I don't care about Werewolf as much as anyone else here I'd imagine. I just joined this game because Frost told me it would be fun this time.

this village drives me to drink heavily...

Ok, I should be around the rest of the day.

The weird thing for me about all this is that going into today I could have sworn stark/djstu/jobeen are all villas, and obviously I'm wrong about at least one of you all, as nice as it would be if we could lynch Jumanji and have OTI tell us that he was a special double wolf and we won the game. Even if Jumanji is a wolf and we lynch him today we still have to figure out who his partner is, and we might as well do that today before one of us gets whacked going into the f3 (if we even get that far).

jobeen reread that I did last night:

d1:

- 96: says she's not posting a lot yet b/c this is all kinda confusing and not her nature (see her post count), plays kinda dumb, but understandable as this game is confusing the first time you play it
- 99: says she's read other threads and noticed a lot of wolves just post lots of questions and not necessarily content
- 135: becoming a ww addict!
- 276: votes beer with the logic that he's not helping find wolves b/c he wants to get subbed out for a power role
- 282: says the votes on her seem like wolves picking on the lost noob (these votes were from WER and ILB)
- 331: defends self from jumanji by pointing out the fail in his logic that anyone who's new should be voted off
- 354: is a star trek nerd

d2:

- 617: reread the thread a bit, says jack frost's ****-slinging is a bit overaggressive, jumanji's vote for wraths looked suspicious (not much to read into here since the two biggest wagons were v/v)
- 634: reread jumanji, suspicious of his posts b/c he was mean, forgives him
- 648: points out slink calling out malgin for being UTR when slink was in fact UTR
- 657: votes jumanji (apparently is not forgiving him?)

d3: does not post

d4:

- 1489: sorry for being gone, had a huge weekend, reading up on what's happened
- 1522: wrt my vote on mburke (who she incorrectly refers to as mdom throughout the post), promotes the "mburke was a chaser pick" theory. she also thinks we should examine the gtpitch/karak relationship
- 1523: wonders whether card's NK was a seer hunt or the SK but doesn't really speculate
- 1531: karak, b/c of his relationship with gtpitch I'm assuming
- 1576: clarifies she meant mburke not mdom in 1522
- 1581: has gone over card's posts trying to see if he left hints about who the SK is, thinks he's saying it might be WER
- 1586: has a theory that the SK knows everyone's role, this is of course incorrect but prob just not understanding the roles properly
- 1590: thinks WER is either wolf/SK
- 1603: unvotes karak and votes mrsbutton to get another wagon going
- 1607: again thinks mburke was seer-cleared by chaser
- 1638: AGAIN posts logic for mburke being seer-cleared by chaser
- 1680: unvotes mrsbutton and switches to corsakh right before the seer claim
- 1718: quotes the same "if corsakh doesn't die tonight I quit"/"unvote corsakh, vote buttons" sequence from djstu that mdom brought up and calls him out on the flip flop
- 1735: switches to mrsbutton cause she doesn't know wtf to do

d5:

- 2072: probably the greatest post in this thread, quoted for hilarity:

votes corsakh next post.
- 2150: wants to maj corsakh
- 2162: won't post pics, super wolfy
- 2196: thinks brian is prob either wolf or SK

d6:

- 2412: hay guys I'm here, so what'd we learn yesterday, will go reread
- 2420: too tired to post anymore, will be back in morning, suspicious of nightwood
- 2469: responds to ILB's reread of jobeen. not really sure how to read it, someone else take a look and see what you think: link
- 2479: jumps on the nightwood train that I started

d7:

- 2603: responds to accusation from slink that corsakh has 100% been accusing villas and defending wolves (and corsakh defended jobeen) by saying that corsakh could have been trying to give himself villa points if jobeen got mislynched, or set up a noob for a mislynch if corsakh got lynched. doesn't post much at all today, says something about being pretty drunk before going to bed but doesn't return before EoD.

d8:

- 2827: started looking into jumanji and said he's been going after villas most of the game - nightwood/ainex/brian/jobeen. said there were only two occasions she remembers him talking about corsakh/gtpitch, and remembers him sticking up for mburke
- 2829: does a full reread of jumanji's posts, thinks he looks pretty wolfy
- 2832: going to bed, asks for thoughts on her jumanji summary
- 2861: wakes up, votes jumanji, doesn't like the way he/karak popped in to vote (for the card2.0 wagon I started)
- 2865: is convinced me and card2.0 are both villagers
- 2868: responding to slink saying "I don't like jumanji b/c cors got on him at one point", jobeen asks if it's unusual for wolves to vote for each other to try to get villa points later on

d9:

- 2991: getting frustrated, votes jumanji, points out he's only voted for a wolf once
- 2999: unvotes to avoid maj

d10:

- 3027: notes that oobrian and jumanji are refusing to defend themselves
- 3044: thinks we should look at bitchi's read on jumanji (which was that he's wolfy) since he had laser reads this game
- 3061: votes karak since jumanji wagon doesn't take off
- 3078: "I will be voting jumanji tomorrow without wavering he is a wolf"

d11: I assume yesterday's events are fresh enough in our minds.


1. I'm pretty willing to say at this point that jumanji and jobeen are not both wolves
2. For neither of them to be wolves, djstu/stark have to be the two wolves, which I feel is unlikely
3. Assuming, then, that one of jumanji/jobeen is a wolf, I think jumanji is the more likely of the two based on the above reread which I think makes jobeen look pretty villa


Of course, biggest downside to voting jumanji:
- if the wolves tried to guess what I'd do today given the remaining group, the #1 thing they would probably expect me to do is lead a wagon on jumanji, since I've repeatedly said the other 3 ppl left alive are the 3 ppl I think are the most villa. Obv I'm wrong on 1 of them, but the fact that all 3 are still alive and that me going after jumanji at this point is completely predictable (when they could have left oobrian alive for us to mislynch) makes me wonder if I'm wrong about two instead.

Unfortunately I'll have a hell of a time trying to lynch any wolf combo that doesn't have Jumanji in it seeing as how JUMANJI IS TOTALLY ****ING AFK THIS WHOLE GAME and all.

goofy, to be frank I think you are placing too much importance on yourself, they left me and someone else alive intentionally as well when we could have been binked

there are a few obvious other things:

1. I would 100% try and lynch 00brian today if he was alive.
2. Jobeen would 100% try and kill me.
3. Jumanji would be a non factor most likely.

djstu/you I don't know what they thought your plans were

aaaand last night's djstu reread:

d1:

- 164: early reads: WER villa, nightwood wolfy, jobeen is clueless noob, neutral on corsakh/card/karak who he's all played with before
- 201: thinks jack frost is wolfy for coming out with a ******ed reason to wagon a UTR on d1
- 202: asks WU if he promises to lynch himself if mdom comes up villa. easy statement for someone who knows they're v/v to make.
- 212: responds to keshaldra's "WU and mdom are wolves going back and forth together to put on a show" comment by saying he and holdme did something similar as wolves together once. trying to cast doubt on WU and mdom?
- 228: stark makes a wolf list, djstu is like wtfffff your list is ******edddd
- 237: researched stark's history to discover that posting ******o wolf lists is standard for him
- 241: still thinks stark is wolfy for the list but willing to give him some credit because of the ssnl game
- 256: now goes off an ILB for posting a wolf list
- 263: votes ILB b/c beer's been acting like an idiot
- 311: thinks nightwood is acting differently than he has as villa in past games
- 320: wtf's @ jack frost's throwaway vote
- 327: points out six UTRs who haven't posted yet, all of whom are now dead villas
- 368: beer and stark at the top of his list for the wolf lists, thinks odds of both being ******o villas are small
- 380: wtf??? thinks aloud wondering if we should keep our wagons close together so we figure out who the RR is. obviously the wolves would LOVE it if we cleared that up for them.
- 395: defends that point a little by saying that if the wolves have to NK him it's a night they can't be seer hunting, so I guess that has a little merit to it
- 439: still harping on beer hard for his wolf list
- 456: some back and forth with dnkyhunter who calls dj out on what he thinks is a terribad post (trying to get RR to come out). dnky DID get NKed that night...
- 483: says bingo's last minute beer vote is suspicious

d2:

- 530: beer/stark are prob villas now given how d1 voting went, says "I look dumb for leading v/v wagons, yay me"
- 729: karak is a terrible wagon (card wanted it). I think this is seer cover. note that even though he's right, he doesn't get NKed in a seer hunt.
- 734: re-reads kesh's d1 posts. thinks mdom is villa, stark is villa, ILB is villa
- 765: re-read brian as well, thinks brian is wolfy and corsakh is villa-ish, comes up with very thorough reasons why brian is super wolfy and votes him
- 785: wolf/villa list. wolves: brian, nightwood; villas: WER, stark, ILB, karak, mdom
- 799:

quoted for hilarity

- 858: responds to brian responding to dj's accusations in a long sequence.
- 864: quotes a gtpitch post where gtpitch was asked for his thoughts on brian and says he seems villa from a post he made. djstu quotes this and says he thinks a good wolf could easily have made that post.
- 876: going back and forth with brian more
- 884: asks brian if he stills thinks dj is a wolf. brian says yes.
- 956: likes brian/nightwood/JD wagons, doesn't know why ppl are jumping on malgin near EoD
- 968: asks caedus if he really has that much of a strong villa read on nightwood. I think this could easily be a wolf probing caedus (who had been dropping seer cover hints about me and now nightwood apparently) to see if he could be a seer. caedus did then get NKed that night.
- 1001, 1004: hates malgin's EoD vote, says malgin's making a case for him to be a wolf

d3:

- 1098: votes mburke for posting a seer list or w/e
- 1242: unvotes mburke after playing a turbo with mburke and seeing that mburke is in fact always a tard
- 1249: mrsbutton is like "wait so you unvote mburke but then post wagons that totally disagree with him", dj says "just cause I don't think he's a wolf doesn't mean I agree with his reads", not much to look into here I don't think (mdom quoted this as a major point of his)
- 1253: thinks mrsbutton is wolfy for some previous interaction with gtpitch
- 1261: does a complete reread of gtpitch. points out a post where gtpitch says WER/brian/nightwood suspicious and says that usually wolves include one wolf in these lists. of course, we now know that everyone in that list is villa. dj gives villa points to mdom, oobrian, thinks people looking wolfy (from gtpitch) are malgin, mrsbutton
- 1292: gtpitch d2 analysis: villa points to karak, nightwood, stark, brian, slink, corsakh, possible wolfy points to mburke, bingo (interestingly because he pointed out another gtpitch wolf list which DID have a wolf on it, corsakh, but dj thought corsakh was villa)
- 1300: likes mrsbutton/malgin wagons
- 1325: votes malgin
- 1354: switches to mrsbutton at last minute, v/v wagon though so doesn't really matter. his reason for switching is interesting though, he says it needs to be closer. curious if he's trying to sniff out the 3x villa. malgin was up like 7-3 before dj switched (and made it 6-4).
- 1391: calls out bingo on saying he doesn't like the button wagon, then switching to it
- 1417: switches back to malgin. between when he voted for mrsbutton and now, mrsbutton had taken the lead and was now up 6-4, so it seems like he's going back to even up the vote count. this seriously reeks of 3x hunting, esp coming from the guy who advocated that we intentionally rig out votes to figure out who the 3x is on d1.

d4:

- 1537: votes corsakh (obv)
- 1694: after the seer claim switches the #2 wagon, mrsbutton
- spends rest of the day trying to get ppl to switch to button (not implicating him or anything, I did the same thing)

d5:

- 1853: re-reads bingo looking for peeks. comes up with: 3 out of river=wolf, ilya=wolf, bitchi=villa, malgin=villa. suggests WER can be the SK.
- 1855: gets ilya wagon going with brian
- 1861: switches to WER wagon and tries to start advancing the "you mentioned both the seers and they got insta-whacked" theory of him being the SK.
- 2129: says that ilya is best wolf candidate, WER/brian best SK candidates, bitchi/goofy/ilb/mburke/stark are villas, says defense of karak was seer cover
- 2132: also advances "mburke might have been seer-cleared by chaser" theory
- 2141: says ilya is seer-peeked wolf and wants to kill him
- 2216: responds to a jumanji post where he says "does it bother you that I've been 100% right so far?" and dj says "that doesn't mean it clears you"

d6:

- 2432: likes ilya better than nightwood b/c of the seer peek thing
- 2433: confirms that his remark about karak on d2 was seer cover
- 2498: thinks we learn more from an ilya lynch than a nightwood lynch, v/v so doesn't mean much. he later helps get ilya into the 3-way v/v/v flip we had that night. god we fail so hard.

d7:

- 2566: doesn't understand the ainex NK, I don't either, since ainex was undoubtedly the SK's kill though I guess it doesn't matter
- 2568: tries to "out" stark as being the SK based on what he said about thinking card was a wolf kill and not an SK kill
- 2585: advances the stark=SK theory but also says stark shouldn't be a wagon
- 2645: wants village to get rid of the SK
- 2666: says we (villa) have much better leads on the SK than the wolves at this point. ok, that's just ******ed, because the villa has LESS information than the wolves. our read on anyone CAN'T be better than what the wolves know. this really sounds like a wolf trying to get villas to hunt the SK for them. although the last two times i've made that argument in favor of someone being a wolf I was wrong so w/e.
- 2717: votes beer, intensely hates a jobeen wagon.

d8:

- 2779: thinks mdom is prob villa after he got ILB mislynched
- 2845: casts suspicion on stark, asks why he's not dead yet
- 2894: votes oobrian in the oobrian vs JD v/v contest. gives his reads in case he dies. these reads are that karak and oobrian are both wolfy, me/card/mdom/slink/jobeen are villa, and he's unsure about stark/jumanji.
- 2899: is all for killing jobeen asap because having jobeen in a must-lynch scenario terrifies him. except for the fact that he thinks she's villa (which he acknowledges).
- 2927: responds to a card post where card points out that bitchi was prob just a seer peeked villa (which is why he got NKed) and says "that doesn't explain why stark wasn't killed last night." not sure I follow.
- 2933: wonders why bitchi killed ilya and not stark. seems obvious to me, maybe because bitchi was wolf hunting? this post just strikes me as very odd and we should revisit it later if djstu comes back wolf.
- 2935: expands and says that either bitchi was FPSing it up by not killing who looked like the more obvious wolf (stark) and went for the 2nd wolf (ilya), or bitchi didn't think stark was a wolf and he's actually just a dumb villa. again, this just feels weird to me.

d9: 0 posts

d10:

- 3099: sorry for afkness
- 3203: is back by EoD
- 3206: thoughts before defending himself from mdom: jobeen villa, goofy's still alive b/c his reads are terribad (lol that one's spot on), jumanji/oobrian are way too utr and could at least be helpful
- 3211: defends himself from mdom
- 3214: says jobeen needs to realize wolves are prob not acting in concert in an easily identifiable way at this point and are rather likely to be latching onto villagers
- 3225: says that if we lynch dj after mdom turns up wolf it would be gd tragic. not sure if he's trying to imply that he's 100% sure mdom is a wolf or if he's just saying that IF mdom was a wolf it obviously clears dj. prob not too important.
- 3229: doubts remaining two woofs are cooperating on an obvious level
- 3233: goes mdom



I think if djstu is a wolf jobeen/stark are his most likely partners. If you want the cliffs, I think posts 380, 968, 1261/1292, 1354, 1417, and 2666 are the most interesting, but I encourage you guys to read all of it and see if anything jumps out of you that didn't at me.

THIS IS WHY I DON'T GET IT AT ALL. I probably would have joined you!!

For reference, a jumanji reread I posted a couple days ago. My read on his was leaning villa at the time. He hasn't done much to upset that aside from stay completely UTR which is annoying as ****.