And about mdom - think for a moment about what yesterday's lynch accomplished for the wolves - we lynched one one of the villas who was least likely to be a wolf out of anyone. Having people like that gone is huge for the wolves once they nail the SK. Of course he would (and did) argue that it would be ******ed for him to put his ass on the line like that if he was a wolf, and yet here we are 2 hours before EoD and nobody's even talking about him at all.

We're not gonna catch the remaining wolves with level 0 thinking. I don't think it would have been difficult for mdom to have predicted things would turn out this way.

OK, seeming as this could be my last day I'm going to get some reads out there and explain things to the village that I want to make sure they know.

So i'll start with my reads at this stage.

Villagers:

100% - cardassian ldo

99% Goofy. I say 99% here because I think he's most likely a seer peeked villa, the 1% is that i could of read the peek wrong again (been known to happen not only in this game).

98% Slink. Honestly slink's just so villa it isn't funny. If he's woof he deserves to win, but he's not woof he's villa here like always.

96% Jobeen. The more you've posted the more I read you villa, especially in the last few days.

96% Starkwired. Have done a total reread of stark and I can't see anything wolf in his posts, I could be wrong as beer was so sure on him but I really can't see it.

96% DJstu. Re-reading his posts he spews villa all over the place.

91% Jumunji. Note this is a neutral lean as there are 11 players so 91% was people's starting point. Jumunji played really weird the only time i've played with him before. I think a lot of what his said makes me think villager, but I also think he's good enough to play this good as a wolf.

87% mdom. I really expected a lot more from a villager mdom tbh. I've seen mdom make plays I only dream about and pull them off perfectly. The fact he's been so quiet worries me, but he reads as quite villa.

86% 0ObrianO0. Seems almost too utr to be a wolf. Played exactly the same in the last game I played where he was a wolf. Would he really play exactly the same way as wolf again is the question. Also don't like the way he trys to clear himself by pointing out he didn't try and save himself, very weird.

85% Karak. Every time I read his posts I think it's a wolf talking. Have never felt this before when playing with karak. This really raises my suspicion. Notice a lot of the players that have been suspicious of him have played with him before as well. However he did leave a village tell in the early voting. Could that of been on purpose is the question.

85% J.D. If it wasn't for gtpitch spewing him wolf and J.D. spewing himself wolf yesterday I'd think he was a villager.


Interesting situation to be in where I think one person reads wolf but spewed villa and one person looks village but spewed wolf. The question is are my reads (on tone) or my reads (on tells) better?

Link? All I remember about the gtpitch-JD relationship is that gtpitch very nearly got JD lynched on d2 by jumping on his wagon when the votes were pretty close.

tbh I don't think that's where the serial killer goes when he dies

Here gtpitch transfers the blame so jack's mislynch doesn't bring heat on him.

Here I think he sets up to receive future credit when J.D. turns up wolf.

I think it was part of his long term game plan as he was the unlynchable wolf.

I never really thought hard enough about how the wolves would try to use gtpitch's power to their advantage, but it probably makes sense to try to position him to make it as far as possible so that if/when he finally gets lynched, it's so late in the game that when he winds up NOT getting lynched, it cripples the village.

Does anyone have any better ideas?

The one problem I see with this is just that gtpitch was like a terribad wolf. He spewed so hard on d1 that even oobrian could see it, and the above reason for switching from JD->jack frost is like sososo obvious "ONLY BECAUSE I TRUST YOU! WINK WINK!"

...but if that was in fact the plan, then JD could indeed be a wolf.

Yeah I actually think it's fairly important that we try to figure out what the wolves' plan for gtpitch's power was. For example, if my above theory is correct, that pretty much completely clears oobrian because outing gtpitch on d1 is a major blow to his chances of making it deep. It helps oobrian's chances of going deep, of course, but if the plan was for gtpitch to be the one to do that cause of his power, then oobrian wouldn't have done that as a wolf.

I also think this backs it up.

It was an earlier post where not only does he get to quote mrsbuttons saying get off JD (to reinforce that people should get off JD) but he gets to put heat onto a villager. When JD came up wolf he would of been able to point to earlier posts to give himself villa points and give mrsbuttons wolf points (of course this wouldn't work if J.D. was village).

And for now (although I'm welcome to hear differing views depending on what you guys think), I think I like JD more than card.

JD

Goofy I am happy to keep mdom on the radar. I could vote for him if everyone is happy to switch.

I really cant see a wolf posting a list like Card just did. Especially when I agree with most of it.

But after losing beer last night I am not happy with losing Card. He is a least a high posting useful guy who I have always had down as a villa. We can always reanalyse his posts later with a bit more info. The way we are going you or me are going to be stuck at the end with 3 UTR guesses going into the final few. If things dont turn out good, we can look at it again. Would OTI seriously replace a wolf with a previously killed villa? That would just confuse the cra p out of everybody. If it is true then that is a pretty bad mod play if you ask me.

I do have a fear of being mutil levelled here but that can wait.

But unless Brain wants to participate i say get rid of him. The fact he and mdom have left their vote till the end says a lot imo.

Vote 00Brian

i agree on keeping card alive for now, even though i still really think he can be a wolf. need to take a look at him tomorrow big time.

JD seems the most logical choice after him

I really really don't think I have to explain myself yet again. At first I thought you were a bad wolf, then I thought I made a mistake, and now I just think you are a bad player. Talk about no substance posting.

You don't see me posting vote jobeen because she's a girl. Your reasonings for me are just awful lol.

@ slink I disagree on your final few senario.

I think as the most cleared villas the wolves are going to nk you and goofy pretty soon. They'll leave the most suspicious characters til last as it'll be harder for the village to clear them.

i wasnt around at end of day, im usually not

True. Flip a coin tonight goofy. GG!

R u going to be around at the EOD today?

If not you should vote first.

What are your thoughts on todays vote mate. At the moment I am going to vote you unless you can convince me you are villa. And if you are a villa please try to do that.

O0Brian is better than JD imo.

We have 2 mislynches before we get into a mustlynch scenerio. It's important we don't FPS ourselves trying to guess wolfy strategy, we should be lynching the people we're most conflicted on/suspicious of so the situation becomes less of a cluster****.

If we get a wolf than awesome, but if we don't and we get no real concrete evidence pointing to someone I think we should seriously considering lynching one of the 3 UTR players atm (karak, jumanji, jobeen). It's gonna be hard as hell to get reads on them and having to rely on them to make good choices in possible f5/f3 mustlynches scares the **** out of me.

My reads in case I die tonight:
-Goofy=villa, practically certain
-Card=villa, pretty sure
-mdom=villa, pretty sure
-Slink=villa, moderately sure
-Jobeen=villa, moderately sure, strikes me as an extremely bad player more than anything else.

Possible Wolves:
O0Brian= his d1 home run on gtpitch could be wolf on wolf violence, the wolves didn't have a night chat before d1 so they couldn't plan anything really complex and he could have just been trying to set up cover for himself.
Karak= he's been amazingly unhelpful so far, and pretty UTR, I would think as a villa he'd make more of an effort.

Neutrals:
Starkwired= He's been acting pretty villa, but that comment yesterday just sets off alarms in my head, plus the fact that he didn't die last night... I don't know what to make of it, but I can't clear him atm.
Jumanji= He's been pretty UTR, and frequently points out that he shouldn't be lynched because he's been constantly right. It strikes me as a likely defense a wolf would take late-game, saying he's too valuable to be lynched because he's the only one with a clue. It's easy to never lynch a villa when you have perfect info. But other than a gut read I don't have anything else on him, so, eh.

If you guys don't like JD then fwiw I like karak as a wagon way more than oobrian

Totally agree that this is a scary senario.

Imageine a f5 of

Jumunji
Karak
Jobeen
0ObrianO0
J.D.

how the hell would anyone be able to work out who the wolves are?
then one villa makes a mistake and votes a villa, both wolves jump on it, maj night gg.

We can't let this happen.

can i ask where I did this? I would like a chance to explain/defend myself as to why you think that way.

That said, I have zero problem with someone NOT clearing me simply because a wolf decided to vote me, it is a tactic I could see a wolf using to get to end game.

Haha, I think it would be hilarious in this situation if the villas all agree to not vote anyone - then the wolves either expose themselves by voting last minute, or we force the wolves to FLIP FOR THE LYNCH

But yeah I think we should lynch karak over oobrian today if that's the route you guys want to go.

I'd be all for killing jobeen asap, her in any must-lynch scenerio would just be aweful.

Except I think if she's a wolf than I'm the Cat in the Hat, and intentionally lynching somebody we don't think is a likely wolf would be so so bad right now.

Here J.D. have already talked about it in my case for you and why I think it's a wolf tell, especially when read in conjunction with gtpitch.