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Old 05-07-2009, 07:48 PM   #2676
djstu
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by OnThInIcE911 View Post
[0] Cardassian(For A.Ertbjerg) - danny
[0] BitchiBee -
[0] djstu -
[0] goofyballer - ILB
[3] I_Like_Beer - unvote
[1] DannyKGB(For IlyaMuromec) - jobeen
[4] jobeen-
[0] JumanjiBoard - Jobeen
[0] Karak567 - jobeen
[0] mdom88 - ILB
[0] nightwood -
[0] O0Brian0O - stark
[0] J.D.(For saymond) -
[0] Slink - jobeen
[1] starkwired - ILB

as of #2669

Where is everyone?
nightwood is dead OTI, should probably take him off the list.
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Old 05-07-2009, 07:49 PM   #2677
mdom88
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Like_Beer View Post
QFT



You forgot one person on that list: You




QFT

BTW, lynching me is beyond dumb. Cause it's a given fact that I'll be NKed either tonight or tomorrow night. I will be really surprised if I make it any farther. why? because I am one of the only few people actually trying to find wolves here

Here are my percentages:

Mdom: 40% chance he is SK. 50% chance he is wolf. 10% chance he is villie
Goofy: 40% chance he is SK. 5% chance he is wolf. 55% chance he is villie.
Stark: 15% chance he is SK. 45% chance he is wolf. 40% chance he is villie. I base this off of his huge defense of jobeen. Either stark knows jobeen or is villie cause he is a wolf, or they both are wolves)
Slink: 5% of him being the SK. 20% chance for wolf, 75% chance for villie.

Beer: 100% chance he is plain old villiie.
mehhhhhh
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:01 PM   #2678
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

mdom, do you see all the ******ation in that post? You really think THIS guy is the SK?
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:01 PM   #2679
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

morning all

it's hangover time so don't expect me to be to quick today.

Agree with starkwired that jobeen is a really bad wagon.

I think she's spewed village in her recent posts.

@goofy the whole first strike because she didn't post pics is cringe material bro.

mdom brings up some interesting material, will have to reread it before making up my mind tho.

fwiw i don't think the sk is wolf hunting anymore as he'll want the wolves to be helping him out with killing off the village.

I also don't think the wolves are sk hunting as they NEED him to be killing villas.

I think brian was a confirmed villager kill.

The real question is does brian's death make karak more or less likely to be a bad guy?
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:02 PM   #2680
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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Originally Posted by mdom88 View Post
2. if i were a wolf, and i was so sure of my read on ILB, i would never EVER come out like this and draw so much attention to myself. the reward would be that we end up getting one more NK than normal. whoopty ****** doo. but of course me playing the way i have this game and going crazy on ilb today pretty much assures that i won't make it to the end of the game no matter what else happens. risk/reward imo
Dude, make up your mind, this logic is lol. You seem to be saying:
"- If I'm wrong about ILB I expect to get lynched tomorrow, even though
- I'm obviously not the SK if I'm drawing this much attention to the guy who thinks I'm the SK, and
- I'm obviously not a wolf if I'm drawing this much attention to myself"
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:03 PM   #2681
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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Originally Posted by cardassian View Post
@goofy the whole first strike because she didn't post pics is cringe material bro.
lol
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:04 PM   #2682
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

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Originally Posted by cardassian View Post
@goofy the whole first strike because she didn't post pics is cringe material bro.
sorry, I've been reading too many ILB posts

Quote:
Originally Posted by cardassian View Post
The real question is does brian's death make karak more or less likely to be a bad guy?
I think more likely, in my early analysis of the game I thought it looked like there was a w/v relationship between karak and brian, and now we know brian is villa. I can't remember if I also thought nightwood-karak was w-v as well, and again, we now know that nightwood is a villa.
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:06 PM   #2683
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdom88 View Post
2. if i were a wolf, and i was so sure of my read on ILB, i would never EVER come out like this and draw so much attention to myself. the reward would be that we end up getting one more NK than normal. whoopty ****** doo. but of course me playing the way i have this game and going crazy on ilb today pretty much assures that i won't make it to the end of the game no matter what else happens. risk/reward imo
You make some good points. BTW, if you are villager, I appologize in advance.

I'm downgrading your percentages to 25/30/45

BTW, no one yet has given a good reason as to why they think jobeen is a villager. All anyone can come up with is "She's a newb"
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:07 PM   #2684
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

I know I thought that if nw was a wolf karak was vill so I presume the logic probably works the other way around too.

Also thought nw = wolf meant jum = villa sowill have to have a wee looksie there too.
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:11 PM   #2685
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Karak

have thought he looked wolfie all game.

One thing my last game taught me was the people that looked like wolves right from the start turned out to be wolves. (ended up losing cos someone we thought was a woof all game then looked like they were seer peeked, they weren't and wolves won).
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:19 PM   #2686
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Like_Beer View Post
You make some good points. BTW, if you are villager, I appologize in advance.

I'm downgrading your percentages to 25/30/45

BTW, no one yet has given a good reason as to why they think jobeen is a villager. All anyone can come up with is "She's a newb"
dude read the post I quoted and look at everything she's posted today, that is so villa it isn't even funny
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:21 PM   #2687
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

ok karak now that we have some steam on him
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:25 PM   #2688
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
Dude, make up your mind, this logic is lol. You seem to be saying:
"- If I'm wrong about ILB I expect to get lynched tomorrow, even though
- I'm obviously not the SK if I'm drawing this much attention to the guy who thinks I'm the SK, and
- I'm obviously not a wolf if I'm drawing this much attention to myself"
well if i were a vilager thats what i would think of myself tomorrow if i end up being wrong. that doesnt mean that a band wagon wouldnt start on me tomorrow and that i wouldnt end up being lynched.
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:25 PM   #2689
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

unvote

sorry Im not trying to be UTR but ever since i subbed in Ive had to put my energy into defending myself because i started already under suspicion.

The only case anyone seems to be making with any reason is karak, and I tend to believe jobeen is innocent. with such a small number of wolves in a big player pool, it will be hard to nab one and they could easily be UTR in a game with few recent posts other than ones by the same players (card, goofy, mdom, dj, stark, beer). everyone else is UTR so i would suspect the wolves and sk to be utr as it would be quite easy for them to blend in.
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:28 PM   #2690
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

mdom- I like your beer idea, but I'd much prefer killing karak to jobeen tonight so...

unvote

karak
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:28 PM   #2691
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

bitchi, jumanji, karak, brian are my immediate guesses for UTR's that list could contain 1-3 of the remaining baddies
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:30 PM   #2692
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Ok, I'm gonna give a pass to jobeen for now.

vote karak
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:30 PM   #2693
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

id be very surprised if bitchi was not a villa
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:37 PM   #2694
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

God at this point I'm surprised if anyone we wagon turns up wolf. Day after day now we keep throwing people up there, they get no resistance, and they turn up as dead villas.

I don't really know what the solution to this problem is though, other than throwing up completely reckless wagon candidates and seeing what happens.
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:40 PM   #2695
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

goofy keep in mind that the villa:wolf ratio is huge
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:41 PM   #2696
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

and a lot of ppl are uTR
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:41 PM   #2697
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

and besides that, it loks like my ilb wagon met some resistance
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:44 PM   #2698
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

get your votes off me this is terrible

how am i wolfy? just like jobeen you are going after me for being utr even though ive done nothing wolfy, and by my count jobeen has done some wolfy things!

the fact that cardassian just comes out of no where and tries to shift a wagon on me makes me think he could be a wolf partner with jobeen or a sk

seriously find a better lynch im 100 % villa
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:44 PM   #2699
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Yeah, but we wagoned 3 ppl yesterday who all seemed suspicious and the total lack of reaction from anyone really makes me think they're all villas. With 3 baddies in a list of 17 players, there's only a 53% of picking 3 of them at random and having none of them be a wolf/SK. That really makes me feel like our reads are just terrible right now.
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Old 05-07-2009, 08:52 PM   #2700
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Re: ROOKIE GAME THREAD!!! (9:30 pm EOD)

Whats the count?
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