I don't feel too bad about the NKs, I think there's a strong chance we were going to mislynch Brian soon anyway if he didn't go some other way.

I think you're reading a little too much into it, tbh I felt stronger about nightwood than I did about oobrian but I voted oobrian to keep it to a flip.

I kinda wish oobrian had lost the flip though, cause then it really WOULD have been his fault he got lynched (all he had to do to save himself was vote for either of the other two wagons but he couldn't even pull that much together).

Good point there.

If I was sk killed (because he bought that i knew who he was) why didn't i get fried as soon as i subbed back in.

Whereas the wolves could have bought my 'win peeks' and killed me in a seer hunt.

probably because Card has already said that he, like most of us, thought it was WER and was wrong.

And killing card twice in a row would have been blatant as all hell.

OK, other wagon suggestions for today? Want to do a read through of Slink?

I suppose, but Brian was my best guess as to who the SK could be. I have absolutely no idea now and if Card got killed tonight I still would have no idea, lol.

btw, with respect to the flip - do you guys think that was a good/bad idea? If you guys like it, we could keep flipping our wagons until the wolves show themselves, and if they don't and we still lose we can chalk it up to running bad and make a BBV thread. It sounds game theory optimal.

I'll read some stuff and come up with some thoughts, just got home from work/softball so gonna eat and unwind for a little.

Goofy neither did nightwood and he was here at eod

fyp I think, you still had nightwood on the player list

karak for now (I think I had maybe detected a little bit of a w/v relationship between him and nightwood, or maybe it was him and brian, either way we know they're both villas now, I'll go reread some stuff later though)

*****DEAD*******

Doh! My first WW death. Good luck Villas!

Thoughts before I go to sleep:

1) I don't think ainex was killed because of his O0Brian vote, that strikes me as too obvious a conclusion to make, and if our SK has proven anything by this point it's that he's smart. I'm assuming Brian was the wolf nk here, but I think that's a pretty safe assumption to make given the general suspicion that he was the SK.

2) I think stark may have just outed himself. The card being a wolf nk comment is just way too matter of fact, and since we all assumed card had been killed by the SK and not the wolves I don't see how stark could be so sure about card being the wolf kill unless he knew exactly who killed whom, which means he's either the SK or a wolf.

3) Stark shouldn't be a wagon. If he's the SK the wolves are probably gonna eat him to protect themselves, if he's a wolf the SK is probably gonna kill him to get rid of another wolf, and if he's a villa chances are one or both will try to kill him. So pretty much no matter what happens we learn his role and there's really no point in wasting time on him. Village caught a lucky break ldo

OK so I went through all the comments about J.D. in the thread and while he gets heat from a lot of people at different stages including Bitchie, Card, ILB, Caedus, ErtBurger (pre card v2.0) and MrsButton, (who are a mostly villagery bunch), I couldnt find any wolves defending him at any stage either.

Bitchie also turns around on him in a positive way in the end with the most significant moment being when Gtpitch votes J.D at the end of one of the days which actually looks ok for J.D. Then nightwood replies:

So anyway lots of villas on his back but no wolves defending didn't tell me much so he escapes my suspicion for now.

I didnt have any "interaction" with him. I was merely pointing out to J.D. the summary Ainex had made of me to speed up his research on me and realise I am a villa.

This is really really reaching at very bad logic. Just mentioning someones name does not mean anything.

Sort your head out Stark! Lets find some evidence on some wolves.

Maybe it is a level so Stark can use it to try to draw flimsy arguments against me. Looks like I am going to have to do a Stark review now..

wowow.

I didn't really feel strongly enough about this before to mention it but in the context of stark maybe being the SK...after playing w/ stark in the SSNL game, I feel like he was much more helpful as a villa there than he was here. He has a similar posting styles in both games for sure, so I'm inclined to think he's not a wolf, but it's like he's toned down his villa game a little to be a little less in the spotlight. Like, in the SSNL game his villa game was very aggressive and abrasive; he threw a lot of **** at people to see what stuck, to the point where he would pick up votes quite often and nobody knew what side he was on. He's been doing a lot less of that in this game, and it fits in with the profile of the SK who wants to avoid getting too much heat from both the village and the wolves.

I guess my feeling is just that since stark was "cleared" on the early days, he's been doing a lot less to help the village than I've seen him do as a vanillager.

I agree with dj though...if stark's the SK, then the wolves have to get him out of self-preservation (since stark likewise has to go after the wolves now that he's been "outed" in the interest of his own self-preservation).

I never really thought about this before but hell, everyone who we thought was a good SK candidate is dead now, so we do have to go outside the box. beer's post about mdom is the only other real "lead" we have.

so i guess all the wagons were villas? well that accomplished a lot, lets do better next times

i figured info could have been gotten if i died, since we had sooooo many villas, how can we lose, but i guess it doesnt work if you guys just wagon all villas, anyway, stark still wants me dead, so ill go him

vote starkwired

Brian wtf, how do you go from soulreading gtpitch to being dog**** for the village?

Slink reread:

First I went through and checked out some of his posts from the SSNL game we played where he was villa, but fairly UTR (34 posts all game). The Slink from that game was confident and assertive with his reads, did lots of analysis, and was borderline reckless with his voting (he voted for lots of villas but never second-guessed himself). Examples:

722: thorough analysis on another villa who was up for lynching, correctly defends him

1072: tons of analysis on large # of players

1079: calls out a villa for disagreeing with his logic

1090: one of the few posts where he asks questions, but he only does so in an accusatory manner in making a case against someone (i.e. "why would you do this if you weren't a wolf?")

1102, 1257, 1349, 1354 - just examples of posts displaying his confident attitude where he doesn't really rely on others


In this game:

603: lots of early analysis, villa list includes corsakh/nightwood/unknowns, wolf list includes bingobango/WER/malgin/djstu/mrsbutton. hard to gain info on d2, don't think we should read too much into his reads being bad. style is similar to ssnl game.

Later makes these two posts:

I don't think I ever saw him ask other people for their reads in the SSNL game. I feel like asking others for wolf lists is something I see wolves do a lot.

Again, this is something I NEVER saw him do as a villa in the SSNL game. This change of strategies (going from largely making his own reads to asking other people for his, shifting attention onto others all the time) is super suspicious.

1199: lots of analysis, tries to start A.E wagon, similar posting style as SSNL game. Leaned villa on RF but had ok reason for doing so, leaned villa on nightwood, leaned wolfy on mburke, good reads (which is unusual for him early on but I won't fault him for that)

1605: identifies cardassian putting heat on mburke as a possible reason for wolves NKing him, says that mburke wagon isn't bad - big villa points imo (with the one exception that this post is a lot easier to make if you know mburke is a wolf, but I don't think it's likely slink would go out on a limb like this as a wolf just b/c he has mostly distanced himself from other wolves throughout the game so far)

1620: again pushes the idea that card was the wolves' NK and that it was because of mburke.

Lots of posts between then and the corsakh cluster**** that I'm having a hard time reading but am getting a villa-ish lean from.

2237: Thinks corsakh cleared nightwood as villa, ++villa points, points out jobeen is looking wolfy from corsakh posts.

2428: defends nightwood again. leaning villa here since after the nightwood lynching, a bad wolf would be like "look guys I defended the guy we lynched!!!", but slink hasn't brought it up, which I think is very villa of him. if he's a wolf, I think he's playing a pretty ****ing good one.

I think I've mostly seen enough so I'll just skip to the important-ish posts that are left:

This feels like something he would have posted in the SSNL game

These two posts worry me a little, as like I've said, the "ask other ppl for their wolf lists" is not a move that was in his arsenal during the SSNL game. But, the weight of the evidence still points villa.

And now that I've gone and done all this research...

Can you explain this, since I'm not seeing it? To be fair though you prob have a different perspective on it than I do since you were on his team in that game and I, well, wasn't

slink made this post which got me thinking about jobeen and whether she might be a wolf:

Strike 1: won't post pics

Strike 2: Piled on Brian w/ me and jumanji - obv we were both wrong as well, but the people who jump on wagons are always more suspicious than those who create them, especially when...

...you have a pattern of doing so, as jobeen now is happy to call nightwood wolfy after I did my reread of him.

To jobeen's credit though, this post seems villager-y.

So, ultimately the question is: did corsakh spew jobeen as a wolf?

3rd wagon? He agreed in advance.

Meh I really have no idea how much I want to stray from yesterday's wagons...Ilya is still a good choice I think as there's still the possibility chaser peeked him, I feel like mdom is maybe a little suspicious though I can't really decide if it's in an sk type way or a wolf type way, I still don't quite feel 100% about card2.0 although he def leans villa, karak and oobrian have been lolbad if they're villagers to the point where I don't know if that makes them wolves or if they're just terribly unhelpful teammates...SO MANY QUESTIONS

You guys had it so easy in the SSNL game with two seers getting an average of like 6 peeks each into the open...christ

Anyway, I'm tired as **** from staying up way too late last night posting in this thread, I'll try to get some sleep and maybe stay away from this thread while I do a meeting at work tomorrow and maybe you guys can give everything a fresh pair of eyes in the meantime

Hey, I have to leave early for work today, but wanted to just address this. I knew NOTHING about anyones role in this game, and would NEVER have played if I did. I have quoted it so if/when OTI sees it he will confirm.

As for me being villa, well, I am and I believe that at least one of the people who were on my wagon early turned around after GTP voted me when the votes were tied like 4-4-4 or something, with a wolf as one of the other wagons.

Slink, I think last nights lynch helps clear you FYI.

Also, for the rest of the village, I think we should abandon the 3 person wagons, as there are only 2 wolves left to find, and our odds of V-V-V or at best W-V-V wagons will occur. The wolves will then spread out and vote safely. If we happen to get a W-V wagon setup, we can be pretty certain the wolves will have to jump the villie.

My .02 FWIW, off to shower/work.

********************MOD NOTE*******************

I NEVER TOLD J.D. ANYONES ROLE BECAUSE I MIGHT HAVE NEEDED HIM FOR A SUB.

HAD I NOT NEEDED HIM TO SUB IN I WOULD HAVE TOLD HIM.

WHY WOULD ANYONE THINK EVER THAT I OR ANY OTHER MOD WOULD DO SOMETHING SO ******ED.

******** LOLZ & GO VILLAGE & HAVE FUN *********

Goofy, the reason I am calling guys out in this game more is that there are so many AFK'ers that are really getting to me.

Also, I am playing different to the style in my last game because my last game was my first, while this is my second. I am getting a better idea of the game and I am realising that the best way for a wolf to stay under cover is to never give an opinion. This "calling out" style is something I am trying, though isn't really working this game so maybe next game I will try something else. And maybe the game after that I will try something different again until I have the metagame sorted out. Anyway, as I get more confident I am getting more vocal so you will probably have worse to come from me

And if anyone tries to throw some mud at me in this game I will get pissed off and attack back. I cant help it. Its the first time it has really happened to me as in the first game I played I was nightkilled for fake seering before anyone had a go at me.

I do stick by reads from Corsahk. So far everything I read from him has him pushing against confirmed villas and defending confirmed wolves. He didnt seem to balance this with level reads in a single post. The nightwood kill confirmed this again. So yes I still think Jobeen is still a good choice. I cant do links so go back to my post that Goofy linked if you want to see my previous reasoning.

Yesterday? Prob 3 villas. But it seems very strange that 00Brian00 seems keen to vote today when yesterday he was happy to kill himself. I wont ask 00Brian to explain himself though because that would be "wolfy".

Anyway, lets get this behind us and find some wolves. I am happy to do a Jobeen vote today for now. As I am going to bed I may as well put it out there now and think about it again in the morning.

Vote Jobeen