im a villager. if i wasnt i'd be posting a lot more, haha. that said i think the best vote atm is jobeen

here's a D1 post by ILB:


I wanna go over why he made this post, because at first i was convinced he was a villager but now I'm thinking he's on a different level and hence that he would do this as a SK or wolf.


in the SSNL game, i started a weak wagon on ILB on D1. Note this was his first game. His response to the wagon starting to roll on him was very interesting. He said things like "anyone else who votes for me at this point is a WOLF." there's some other stuff he said too but i need to go back to that thread and find it.

after he said that stuff, people were all of a sudden VERY sure that he was a villager (he was a villager, btw) because it's the sorta thing that you would expect a newbie villager to kinda just be pissed off and say or something.

One of my reads is that ILB noticed that if he does something like that early, people automatically think he's just a pissed off villager. I can see a lot of similarities between what he said in the SSNL game and what he said d1 of this game.

The difference, of course, is that this time ILB knows (thinks) that people will respond to him saying stuff like that by assuming that he's vanillager. I think that if he were SK, he would be running through things in his head that would help clear him, and this would be one of them.

here are posts by ILB over time where he keeps awkwardly bringing up the SK and accusing people. again, I believe that with the level that I think he's on at this point, he would do this as a weird sorta reverse way of diverting attention from himself.

what the hell, at this point I dunno so I'll go with you mdom

unvote

ILB

The one thing I don't get about ILB is...do you really think he's capable of finding all those wolves??

I mean, you remember in the SSNL game he got seer-hunted because on d1/d2 he twice went after a UTR wolf who hadn't posted, the same way MoneyMatt1 did to Uck Box...and then he came back villa and we were like "wtf, he ACTUALLY tried to start wagons twice on someone with 0 posts as a VILLAGER?????"

And we expect THIS to be the guy who has eliminated like 4 wolves? I dunno, man.

I quoted the wrong post from brian

this is the proper quote.

also one other thing that goes along with my thinking that ILB is doing things that he did in the SSNL game to appear villa: he has been randomly voting jobeen all game every night basically.

do the right thing village.

i think whjoever the SK is, they have been running like electrical jesus anyway. what players currently alive do you think are smart enough to soul read wolves left and right like that?

also i don't think you're giving him enough credit. he does put a lot of time into his decisions and reads over this thread a lot even though it doesn't seem that way based on his posts. (read brian's summary after winning Rookie game Part 2 to confrim this, ILB was wolf there)

^^^ILB was a wolf with brian that game and brian said ILB was one of the 3 wolves who actually put a lot of time into wolf chat etc.

And the other thing I really don't like about this is that the 3 posts in a row you made on the subject involve about 4x as much effort as you've put into the rest of your posts this game combined. With the timing, I can't help but feel like you're making a really really hard push at shifting suspicion onto someone who might have outed you, since this only comes after ILB accused you of being the SK.

Not to mention that you completely ate up the d1 posts he made as being posts that ILB would totally make as a villager and defended him very hard early on for the same reasons you're now accusing him of being the SK.

...and lastly, we don't need an ILB wagon if he's the SK. We should make the wolves kill the SK for us.

1) i am putting so much effort into this wagon because i think there's a very good chance that ILB is SK and i feel like if I don't push this really hard then he will end up winning because no one else currently alive has him anywhere on their radar

2) You realy think that i would be so obvious as to respond to someone's accusal by all of a sudden coming out of the wood work and making my first substantial wagon against them? give me a littttttttttttttle bit of credit, goofball

3) he fooled me at first. after reading more of his posts in this game, and the conclusion of our other game, i am giving him more credit than before = i think he's on level x+1 rather than x = i have completely changed the way that i analyze his earlier posts.

and feel free to lynch me if i'm wrong about him. at that point i would feel ******ed anyway and wouldn't want to keep trying to read people at this game anymore anyway

Killing a potential SK is a much better result for the village than killing someone who is like 80% villa (jobeen).

one other thing about you thinking i'm just shifting suspicion: if I am SK and we mis lynch ILB based on my accusal of him being an impossible role, then you're obviously gonna end up gunning for me either tomorrow or later if i make it that far. so it would be a pretty craptastic job by me to cover myself

I feel pretty ******ed too but I'm not about to give up

fwiw I read ILB's early posts in that other game you mentioned and it's a total 180 from his posting style in this game + the SSNL game. I don't think you can give him credit for, in this game, being really good at "faking" his SSNL villa style when he failed utterly at it as a wolf in the other rookie game.

So let's not lynch jobeen. I like karak. And what % chance would you assign to ILB being the SK? I really doubt it's significantly higher than 20%.

also why do you want to trust the wolves to do our work? why do you think they would listen to me if villa wont? also, its better for us to lynch him because then we avoid one more villa NK.

if you have any other ideas on who to lynch i'm open to hearing them i guess, but i think my wagon is our only decent shot today

If we lynch ILB and he's villa I'd imagine the wolves will snap kill you tonight. They would be stupid not to unless they have some uber sick read on who the SK is.

personally i think it's like 95%, but to be objective i would say closer to 37.85% or so

fine with me bring it on pups

Getting rid of the SK appeals to me, we've got such a big advantage atm that stopping one of the nightkills is pretty attractive.

He's done a scary good job of killing wolves so far, but if we can't kill the last 2 with an 12/2 villa/wolf ratio then I'm just gonna quit ww entirely.

There are like 5 players left capable of being the SK, you, mdom, ILB, djstu, and BitchiBee. If it is anyone else I'll eat my hat.

I'd rate %s something like this:

you- 20%
mdom- 10%
ILB- 40%
djstu- 25%
BB- 5%

I don't think any of the other people left are capable of doing this. Karak is possible, but I'm going to rule him out because I think it's a gazillion times more likely he is a wolf than the SK.

FWIW djstu has been intriguing me for awhile now, especially after he came at me hard this morning about that card NK thing, which seemed really nitpicky, like he was trying to come up with a reason to get me lynched. He then backed off and said that I should not be lynched today with pretty poor logic supporting that. To me, that is really weird and reeks of him either being a wolf or SK.

Re: Karak

Part of me really wants to go with my gut from earlier in the game and kill him (as I have suggested over the past few days), but the fact that NO ONE is defending him at all scares me and makes me think he's just not paying close attention because he's disinterested because he's villa. I think he's a better kill than jobeen for sure and possibly 00brian (after him snap voting for me, that was a pretty noob villa move). Still, I like mdom's analysis and had been thinking in a similar vein for a few days, just wasn't ready to pull the trigger because I was afraid I'd get snap NK'd, which looks likely today anyway after the djstu crap, so I might as well say it now.

fwiw i'm like 99% that ILB is either a wolf or SK but my best guess out of that 99% is that he's a SK. win/win imo

doubt he's wolf, wasn't he peeked?

i didn't think he was? i could be wrong though

I posted this right after chaser got axed. We know that corsakh was like 99% one of the peeks and two of the other potential peeks were wrong, so his other peek was either goofy or ILB as villa. He had only two, right?