I did one yesterday, but there wasn't anything worth noting to quote.

My thoughts

DEF VILLAS: Goofy, Card, Bitchie. Word up villa bros.

Nightwood: I am unsure about the nightwood wagon simply because corsahk went after him at one point, and looking through corsahks posts he never seemed to attack anyone that wasnt confirmed villa. So this makes me uneasy.

00Brian00: Didn't 00Brian00 lead a big wagon against Gtpitch early on? He is cleared in my book.

Brian: He is all over the place lately and it seems every person he tries to wagon is a bad choice. He really confuses me and I am going to really look hard at him this morning. But I am leaning confused villa or SK.

My wolf choices atm:

I have always had a prob with Jobeen but I am resisiting the urge to vote for her for now as it could so easily be just noobish behaviour. But she is in my top 3.

Ilya is still very sketchy in my list after ILB reminded me about that post where he went along with the River vote. I agree this coud easily be a dumb mistake from a noob wolf.

Karak: If he is a "good" player from what people say, he has made no effort at all in the game so I would be happy to vote for him to knock off a wolf or possible seer.

Cliffnotes: Jobeen Karak or Ilya vote for me today so far. Brian needs to go at some point though.

Sorry I haven't been as active in this game guys. I have been reading everyone's analysis and trying to make good votes, though. And I think nightwood is a good vote today.

Also whoever the SK is is very good at this game. I am not very good at this game. That alone should DQ me from being a SK. I think it's very obv by this point that I am not a wolf. Keep me around and I'll help you guys finish this out strong.

Brian has SK potential. Goofy I think also has SK potential, unless he has been seer cleared and I missed it.

Slink just also posted that he'd be happy to knock off a possible seer. Huh?

I am going to

Vote Karak

for now for the reasons stated by me above, being:

" Karak: If he is a "good" player from what people say, he has made no effort at all in the game so I would be happy to vote for him to knock off a wolf or possible seer. "

The seers peek SK as a villa, so any seer-cleared villa can still be the SK.

Not sure what to think about him either way, but there's definitely a legit argument against him - oobrian did lead the gtpitch wagon early on, but his soulread was almost too good to come from someone that didn't already know gtpitch was a wolf. It's quite possible that, assuming oobrian is a wolf, they set up some kind of strategy where they tried to get gtpitch lynched early, only for him to survive unscathed (because he was the special wolf who could survive a lynching) and then chalk up his survival to the 3x villager being on the other side, but then be like "come on the wolves would never risk one of their own getting lynched so early come down to the 3x voter" and bam, gtpitch is "in" as a villa. Or if he gets caught eventually, bam, oobrian is "in" as a villa. The problem with oobrian imo is that he's pretty much quit posting, and if we're to assume he's villa, then it makes little sense to me that he would make such a sick read d1 and then completely stop helping the village after that. I mean, for me it's been the opposite, I was clueless early on and I've been getting much better reads as the game goes on, I think.

Pretty sure he meant SK considering both seers are dead

goofy: I'm not entirely sure how the wolf-who-survives-a-lynch ability works. I took it to mean that the village would wind up not lynching anyone that day, and so that wolf would pretty much be revealed as a wolf for the next day. If it works how you say it does though, and the person with the next highest amount of votes gets lynched, then yeah, the wolves definitely would have been pushing for a gtpitch lynch.

00brian00, care to comment on any of this? Or have you just AFKed?

Ok, oobrian re-read:

d1:

4 hours before EoD he makes his first post, soulreads gtpitch and makes a kind of funny point (looking back now considering he's made only 13 posts ITT) about how he was a UTR wolf last game so we should look at UTRs.........which he is

d2, morning:

If we're right about oobrian being a wolf and the wolves coming up w/ this plan of kinda sacrificing gtpitch to get oobrian "in", then saying that gtpitch/nightwood looks w/v with gtpitch being the wolf looks like an attempt to "clear" a fellow wolf early on. Remember, Brian thinks he has madddd street cred at this point. I think this is a post that nightwood later quoted to be like "see guys I'm not a woof!!!"

clears karak if oobrian is wolf

prob clears jumanji too

d4, his last two posts:

when he says he agrees w/ jumanji, he's saying he agrees w/ bingo approving of a jumanji wagon because jumanji's play looks similar to his wolf game (oobrian and jumanji were both utr wolves together in a previous game).


So, IF oobrian is a wolf:
- karak is not a wolf
- jumanji is not a wolf
- nightwood is a very possible last wolf




Brian - I assumed it was "village lynches dude with 2nd most votes", because of how OTI explained that he wouldn't elaborate on how lynches were arrived at at one point...he can clarify though.

That does make a difference I suppose - if one dude is ahead 9-8 but the dude w/ 8 gets lynched, village doesn't know if it's because the 8 had the 3x on his side or if it's because the 9 was the special wolf. If it's the same scenario but nobody gets lynched, villa knows that one of them is the special wolf, but not which one (cause the 8 could still have 3x on his side).

I also think that there is a slight possibility that Brian is the SK. (I have more suspicions on someone else though. I'll get to that in a later post)

Yesterday I made a point that the SK wants to peeked by a seer. Brian made a response saying that he thinks that the SK doesn't want to be peeked, and that it's impossible for SK to win if he is peeked. He has some valid points there, and I need to think about it a little more.

But if the SK is peeked along with a bunch of other villagers (to the point where there is a ratio of non-peeked villagers to peeked villagers of 2:1), then the village starts lynching non peeked villagers (To obviously find wolves), wolves NK peeked villagers, and the SK kills other non-peeked villagers (killing non-peeked villagers and wolves {preferably wolves} are good for the SK). He never has to worry about being lynched during the day, just has to dodge the wolves NKs to gain victory. And if all the other wolves are dead, then he can only be killed by lynches, which is easier for him to have control over (because he has no control over the wolves NKs).

So the SK is going to be looking at any and all "peeks" made by people. If he sees a "peek" of him, he is going to NK that person in hopes of killing a seer and validating that he is a peek villager.

What is possible in this game is that Brian saw that Chaser "peeked" him village (Chaser defends him on Day 1 mightly, so it is possible Brian could be Chasers N1 peek), so he NKed him. He in fact was seer, so now Brian can claim he is seer peeked. Of course, he wants the other seer to stay alive as long as possible so that there can be more seer cleared villas. Obviously this isn't the case, so the plan may have backfired. Now the SK wants to get rid of the wolves as quickly as possible so that he doesn't get NKed by them.

So there are two things we need to figure out. Do people think that Chasers N1 peek is Brian?

Also, the wolves know if they killed Chaser or not. If they did not NK him, and it was the SK, then the probability of Brian being the SK goes way up. Only the wolves know this for sure.

So if we believe that Brian was a Chaser peek, and if the wolves did not NK chaser, then Brian being the SK is very high.

We will probably find out the answer to these questions tonight.

The wolves want the SK dead more than we do. If Brian survives the night, then we can conclude that the wolves did the Chaser NK and the probability of Brian being the SK goes way down.

There are my thoughts on that. I think I just confused myself.

I don't neccessarily think that this is the case, but it is a possibility.

goofy/brian can you guys address karak?

Fair Enough. Didnt think of it this way. Nice one.

Doh. Yeah my bad. Sorry. Of course I meant SK.

Now lets talk about mdom:

************

GTPitch putting out the idea that if/when Mdom comes up wolf, that he should be cleared. GTPitch planning for the future in case his brother wolf gets lynched before him.


Lots of Mdoms Day1 posts are about the cereal killer. I think he is excited to be the cereal killer.

congratulates himself

Sees that Mburke is super wolfy. This wagon doesn't pick up, so he Night Kills him later on, and guess what? He was right

I then ask Mdom what he likes to eat for breakfast. I am implying that he likes to eat cereal. He obviously doesn't respond, and obviously won't NK me because people will see this post and he'll be dead meat.

Mdom is a smart guy. Hell, I thought he was a damn seer in our last game cause his reads were spot on. His reads in this game have been pretty spot on (see the mburke thing). The SK is finding wolves easily right now. The SK is staying a little bit under the radar. MDom is staying under the radar. Mdom fits the SK profile.

So, in conclusion, I think Mdom really likes to eat Cereal in the morning for breakfast. He eats lots of it. I mean, he just kills the boxes of cereal in the morning. He is a killer of cereal.

failboathasarrived.jpg

karak

[0] Cardassian(For A.Ertbjerg) -
[0] Ainex -
[0] BitchiBee -
[0] Brian -
[0] djstu -
[0] goofyballer -
[0] I_Like_Beer -
[0] DannyKGB(For IlyaMuromec) -
[0] jobeen-
[0] JumanjiBoard -
[0] Karak567 -
[0] mdom88 -
[0] nightwood -
[0] O0Brian0O -
[0] J.D.(For saymond) -
[0] Slink -
[0] starkwired -

Player list for my benififit

Votecount will be shortly

[0] Cardassian(For A.Ertbjerg) - nightwood
[0] Ainex - nightwood
[0] BitchiBee -
[0] Brian - o0brian
[0] djstu -
[0] goofyballer - nightwood
[0] I_Like_Beer -
[1] DannyKGB(For IlyaMuromec) -
[0] jobeen-
[0] JumanjiBoard -
[3] Karak567 -
[0] mdom88 - nightwood
[4] nightwood - karak
[1] O0Brian0O -
[0] J.D.(For saymond) - dannykgb
[0] Slink - karak
[0] starkwired - karak


As of #2467

ok i see where your coming from with this post and as you pointed out i did cry noob quite alot in the first day this however was because thats what i am and was afraid that if i didnt post i would be called utr and heat would come on me.
i jumped on your wagon beer because thats what i thought i should do at the time. then all of a sudden everyone thinks im a wolf. i freaked out and proberly didn't help myself in that respect.

i don't recall anything about your refference to me ripping slink for jumping on Malgin wagon

and i voted jumanji cos he wanted me off cos it was my first game i had a moment there and didn't think that was very cool so ultamately this was a spite vote so sorry about that.

tbh the seer clearing mburke thing was just a name mistake not any kind of level on my part.

If i was a wolf which i am not. why would i put my SK thoughts itt when it would make sense to just talk about theories in wolf chat and not open myself up to questions from the other players.Don't you think i would have been schooled in wolf chat on how to seem more villa.

i do recall not being the only one who thought mrs buttons was a bit suspect.

i unvoted corsahk because he claimed seer. i voted mrs buttons then because thats who i had voted earlier in the game. i realy didn't know what to do at that point because there were so many different players more experienced than me telling me to vote cors and others screaming that i shouldn't real confusing guys.

and i do realise that i should post my resoning behind my feels on people and i start to but always get side tracked. i would just like to point out im not the only one who has doubts about nightwood or brian and im defenately not the first person to voice these.

i can see how my game may seem wolfy but i think esspecialy when you look at how many wolves defended me in the begining. (wolves traping a noob using me for wolf cover imo) But there are others out there that have posted less than me and are just as new at this as i am. i think tht if i was a wolf i would be to scared to touch the keyboard in case i ****ed up. i on the other hand have been actively trying to help the village.

I am not a wolf.

ILB:

tl;dr your post about me.

mdom is high potential to be serial killer. Not sure if I listed him as my next suspect after you/Karak but yeah, he is 3rd on my list.

Wolves would discuss SK openly to try to get him lynched so they don't have to waste a NK on him. In fact, anyone who has talked about potential SK suspects and/or subtly pushed for an SK lynch is more likely to be wolf imo. Wolves want SK dead much more than village at this point, and would love nothing more than for him to be lynched.

FWIW though jobeen, I don't want to lynch you within the next few days.

J.D. really worries me. In the last game I played with him, he wasn't shy at all, and was usually the voice of village reason. I can understand his needing a few days to catch up after being subbed in, but I really expected more from him by now.

ILB, I cringed at all of your puns but I actually like both your posts about mdom/brian SK possibilities, very good research/thinking.

I'm not as big on jobeen being a wolf right now.

I'll try to re-read him later if I have some time (got some stuff to work on at work atm), in the meantime I think I've mentioned him in summaries before if you want to see my thoughts on his d1/d2 play.

*****************MOD NOTE*********************

BITCHIBEE HAS APPEALED HIS PUNISHMENT

I HAVE DECIDED TO OVERTURN MY RULING BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE PUNISHMENT DID NOT MEET THE CRIME

THEREFORE BITCHIBEE HAS RECEIVED BONUS POINTS FOR USE AT A LATER TIME

BITCHIBEE MAY NOW POST NORMALLY

...although to elaborate on specifics:

meh, I think mdom is slightly suspicious as a wolf because of how UTR he's been but I don't think this points to him highly, if anything I remember people saying that post made gtpitch look super wolfy (personally I don't know how the **** to interpret it, it's just a weird ass post to make).

btw, one other thing I remember about mdom: corsakh said on d1 something like "mdom was really helpful in another game we played" to defend him. mdom really hasn't done **** in this game.

Not bad

facepalm, I don't think asking people if they eat cereal is a reliable way to out them as the SK, and I don't think this post is making the SK quake in his boots if he NKs you

Not bad

SUPER FACEPALM CRINGE