Because. it's more important for the wolves to play their anti-village game and only worry about the sk once they get a grasp on his motivations. Btw a dead wolf on d1 is pretty huge so I doubt the wolves could assume the SK would "rebalance" by wolfhunting again tomorrow.

Agree. Seerhunt is very likely since their NK is partially "covered" from analysis by the SK. Goofy seemed slightly villagery to me before, and with this, i will def. not be voting him.

Wow so v/v wagons again yesterday. I ought to be able to piece together a huge piece of this puzzle given that I am the only one who can confirm that - unfortunately I'm still drunkie atm. But wow - can't believe I wound up flipping, I would def had Caedus read as super wolfy mcwolfenstein for letting that happen. 3/6 (1/2) of wolves are definitely UTR; I'm going to halt my Karak wolfhunt to go after them next. I hate UTR players so much that at this point I'll lynch all non-contributors before a contributor.

I really can't believe you guys let it come down to a flip yesterday, so vry srsly disappointed with this village.

Yep, 00Brian00 is pretty much cleared.

haha, detective brian ITT.

o**** i didnt cap. all the letters!

I'm very confused as the Mrs.Buttons motivations. Heavily leaning village idiot .

Yeah I agree.

Also anyone else think mburke is looking wolfie today?

i read his first post as wolfie d1. yesterday i thought maybe not maybe he's just a villa who has a personal thing with goofy, however when i mentioned that he got very defnesive about it.

Also looking back at gtpitch's posts i see
Talking about goofy and mburke. This is exactly the kind of thing I'd expect a wolf to say if goofy/mburke was w-v.

the reason being a wolf isn't going to be defending another wolf hard and this is nice and subtle. it could also be a way of quietly telling another wolf that they're not going to get anywhere with that one, kinda a focus you're attention elsewhere as you're gonna bring heat on yourself playing like this.

Now as Caedus's most likely peek was goofy then the chances of goofy being vill are greater than normal (as the chance that caedus was a seerhunt is >0%) therefore mburke05 is the likely wolf in this pissing match.

Now if we look at mBurke's last villa game he kept on at goofy and around this stage of the game started to build a case against him.

Here (after the nk which if it was a seerhunt clears goofy) he comes in and all of a sudden drops the goofy case and tries talking about how win looks wolfy because gtpitch was a wolf. his reasoning here is lolbad considering win clearly thougth gtpitch was wolfie yesterday and voiced it. I don't think he'd do that as a level as a wolf as it'd mean busing an experienced player that was his buddy later on. (would make heaps more sense to be doing this move with a less experienced player).

Oh i nearly forgot then he goes and posts a seer list!

WTF!!!!

not a vill move to be sure.

Think i'd lynch him for that alone.

mBurke05

You bring up an interesting case vs. karak Card.

This part though would only make Karak wolf if karak/brian were ww. But that is extremely unlikely as pushing a wagon on a wolf then snap changing last minute to someone else when the wolf you were wagoning is about to get killed is super fpsy (and bad).

Thus if karak were wolf, brian is likely villager. But then why would Karak spazz change if the wagons were VV?

yeah. that was GTP's fake peek of karak, which he then used to construct cases against other players. overacted imo.

Very nice anaylisis Cardassian, your case vs. Mburke is very strong. Alot of it comes from this assumption though, (and that implicitly goofy is very likely to be villa due to the nk, which I agree with) please explain it.

Would only make sense if JD was a wolf imo.

he was the third wagon and by changing his vote it meant that even if there was a late ovte for JD he was protected from the red ranger. Otherwise it could be a level considering he knows we'll think it wouldn't make sense to do a v-v jump there.

i'll respond to car's stuff more thoroughly tomorrow b/c its 2:30 am here but in quick reply

a) it's my second game and i did that last game i was in and wasn't chastized for it, i really don't see how it's out of line given the mass chaos that the 3-4 wagons we have is unraveling

b) your reasoning on d1 for me being a wolf when i posted "its 2:30am est ill BB tom" was ridiculous as well. it was 2:30 am then, it is 2:30 am now est. sorry you're in NZ or wherever you reside.

c) i dropped wolf d1 b/c he acted the EXACT same way he acted in our first game(posting with fluff first day, posting band 2nd day, and then simply defending himself/creating wagons 3-5) as wolf. i'm sorry but i don't buy that he would simply level this group that way. in addition i ruled this game he wasn't villa 1) b/c of the defensive nature he took this game vs the other game i was in w/ him when he attempted to UTR when i attempted to give him flak, and 2) b/c if he had a power role id expect him to take a more active role which he hasnt

cya in morning (est time)

My assumption is that the chances of caedus nk being a seerhunt is >0%.

caedus "peeked" goofy therefore the chances of goofy being a villa are greater than average.

mBurke I understand that we live in different time zones.

I don't unnderstand however why a villager would feel the need to come in and make that post d1 and then leave again. Looks like a wolf trying not to be seen as utr to me.

I agree with that, I want you to explain this.

And also, refering to Mburke's last post, he spewed hun .

oh can anyone confirm if there is night tonight or if we have the long day weekend thingy?

Well when i was a wolf (2nd long game i played) the wolves in general didn't defend each other a lot as we didn't want to create solid links between ourselves.

however small off the cuff remarks that we thought wouldn't be looked into too much (like gtpitch's post) we used hoping that either

a) the other wolf would get our message to calm down
b) hoping to divert attention elsewhere
c) give out the general impression that the players were village without really saying too much ourselves

I think theres a long weekend. I'll be on a plane almost all day today but I should be back in time for EOD assuming that is on sunday night. I'll try to post some thoughts before I leave though

pretty sure there is no night tonight

yeah there won't be night until sunday night

vote mburke for being a raging moron and posting seers.

Seriously wtf?

alright guys what do we think of this sequence from yesterday.

seems like he quickly went to defend brian, then backed off and kinda was trying to not commit to anything maybe, while still defending brian

gonan keep my vote on brian for now, he just keeps getting wolfier and wolfier as the days go on

brian