mdom fake peeked gtpitch villa. would a wolf be so stupid to fake peek another wolf?

The wolves NK is like never a level here because they had no way of knowing that we'd know which of the NK was theirs.

Caedus didn't look that seery to me but I'll re-read him.

I remember he talked about hunting the SK so I'm actually surprised the wolves chose to NK him as I'd assume that the sk would be gunning for him.....

Did the SK try to kill off another wolf or did he want to kill a strong villa to balance?

LOL i soulread GTP as wolf. pls re-read my posts.

I'm pretty sure a lot of info can be gained from GTP's death as the chances of him dying were very low (only the sk could kill him), so he likely had a long-term game plan in motion. Will take me reading him then going to bed/waking up tomorrow to get ideas.

I'm pretty sure the sk was wolf hunting, I think he read gtpitch as wolf and killed him to maintain balance. I'm hoping he sticks with this line as it'll help us out. I also think I know who he is but I'll keep those suspicions to myself at the moment as

a) he's helping us out
b) I'm not 100% on it yet and would like a few more days to confirm.

Also please mr SK don't kill me tonight if you think I might be right on this, if I am it'll be our little secret as long as you're on our side

lalalalalaa

One thing: corsa is just as cleared as beer through the NK's.

caedus was also pushing corsa hard IIRC, and so was GTP. If caedus's nk was to be interpreted as seerhunt corsa=wolf would be one of the likely conclusions.

But gtp was also pushing him hard. and the blame wouldn't go squarely on gtp. This means gtp was ready for corsa to be lynched and would walk away w/ out much blame.

Therefore corsa is very likely villa.



----
Could of thought it through and phrased things better, but i dont feel like it.

win is wolf here like never, ever, ever imo.

Of course I can't clear him 100% as only a seer can do that but I can be 99.9% sure he's not a wolf.

Looks like I have quite a bit of re-reading to do...

WiR i was looking back but couldn't find it, could you help me out. (no tone, just curious)

i'm planning a trip to vegas atm so kinda busy sry.

and i think other people to consider are:

ilya
malgrin

ilya basically hasnt done anything but post once to wagon JF (w/ neither vote in the end). so he's either an insanely utg SK/wolf or a terrible villager. either the way he's not helping at all and at this pt i'd rather keep the good players that are contributing seeing as the SK will mathematically be more likely hitting a villa next.

malgrin didn't post a single helpful thing, in fact, his only insightful post was to defend himself against an accusation that he wasn't posting by slink who was in fact totally right. it was the right pick yest b/c the worst case scenario would be that we have one less person that contributes nothing per day/make it more likely SK hits another wolf. after the wagon got started on jack frost by wir, malgrin jumped on immediately w/ no reasoning at all (literally go back and look at his post. it was "ya he seems really wolfish" without explaining anything).

my villas:
ilb (ldo)
nw
mdom
slink

seers:
car
djstu


wolfs:
cors
ilya
malg

unknowns:
chaser (lean villa)
goofy (lean villa)

wtf? dont make a seers list idiot

blah, sorry man, but that was pretty fail.

after losing a wolf on the first night you really think they're just trying to take out the strongest villa? i highly doubt it. this was either a SK hunt or a seer hunt. my money is on SK hunt.

Posts you asked for:
I call him a wolf here.

And here.

After the post from quote #1, i tried getting info about others from gtp, and info about gtp from others, in preperation for him being a wolf.

Ship the soulread.

doubt what you like, caedus is a very strong player and thats why he was killed

Why would the wolves SK hunt when, for all they know, the SK could think that he has to balance by taking out a villa or seerhunting?

agree w/ nightwood on the strong player hunt, i dont think caedus was active enough / gave peeks to be warranted a seer. he joined the 2nd day too as a replacement didnt' he?

btw, glad we kept you around nightwood.

@WiR, that's fine, but then why didn't you look for more axn on putting gtp on the chopping block? gtp was way more active and therefore would have been a much better wolf no?

I suspect that the wolves would have NKed me but GTP quoting my gogogo JF post and being all "whoa, really? ok i'll trust you!" made me look bad enough to keep around.

why would this matter? if the wolves think that the SK will kill a villa/seer tonight then by your logic they should go for the SK kill so that way a villa/seer dies last night AND the SK dies before he's able to "rebalance" the game tomorrow night

whatever that means.

fwiw .. i think a good wagon would be me vs jumanji/msbutton. other good ideas a.ertjberg/karak.

i won't be around for a while now

Because the last game we played together is ongoing.
And even if i could discuss it i'm pretty sure i couldn't lynch him, so why try when i can instead observe?

I don't always give out my reads on everybody. If i did that i'd give others a basis of how to react and i want to see how others react to things on their own.

My money is on a seerhunt, which means we should be keeping votes off of goofy. Its a stretch to think that the wolves will be hunting the SK, as they had no idea the SK's strategy on n2, as the n1 kill could of been something random. Now that 2 wolves have been killed, the wolves are likely more inclined to SK hunt and their NK's for future nights will likely reveal less information.

As for the strong player argument, that is pretty ******ed. As strong as caedus is getting the seer is far more important. Caedus can guess at a wolf, while the seer knows DUCY?

i like the aertjberg/karak, given karak's hist w/ beer who looks very very villa. also curious as to what brian has to say on the matter today b/c of the wagon on him that was started by karak(i think?s omebody correct me). i'll re-eval after they get on prob. but for now leaning malgin/ilya for sheer lack of contribution and strange erratic behavior.