I did a read-back of brian since he's going after karak who I have a strong villa read on, and apparently is easy to lynch if I'm remembering somebody saying that earlier, plus his post-EOD list of leans had some glaring inconsistancies in it. But I'll get to those in a bit, to start off:
page 1:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian
Does the serial killer have to kill people at night? Or is it an option? I can see him not wanting to narrow down for the wolves who he is later on in the game. It seems like a virtually impossible role to win with, but can really fark the village up if he gets a seer. And I think he will be seerhunting every night. He wants there to be as much confusion about the roles as possible, and doesn't want the village to ever lock things up. He also doesn't want to be peeked villager, because the wolves will kill him after the seer dies. So leaving seer cover will be extra important this game.
Seers: I strongly advise reading this strategy guide. Cliff's notes is that good peeks are players who are likely to live a long time, and not necessarily whomever you think is most wolfy. In fact a seer who gets to the end game with all villager peeks is about the best thing possible.
Why is he advising the SK to seerhunt? He doesn't come out and tell the SK to do it directly, but he sure as hell says that it's the best way for him to play the game. I'm having a hard time seeing a villager why a villager would make this post, if the SK follows the advice it helps the wolves immensely. Cors is the only one to ask him wtf he's doing, and his excuse is rather weak
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian
I think it's best if we get possible motives for roles out in the open - serial killer is something we'll be discussing all game.
I think cors definitely gets villa points from this, wolf points for brian.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian
BTW tri wagons are the way to go. If I could have my wish the 3 wagons today would be:
Karak567
WinEvryRaceX
[TBD]
posted pretty early in day one. He started off wanting to lynch karak pretty quickly it seems, also the presence of WER on this list is a serious wtf. Brian 1st post also was a vote for WER, though I'm pretty sure that was a joke since the reasoning was so bad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian
WinEvry is screaming wolf to me. Karak popped in with a wolfy first post, and is a person I think I will learn a lot from wagoning based on previous games. Also, he's not AFK, and as we all know lynching AFK Day 1 = bad.
posted after he was questioned about his list. I don't see how WER could scream wolf to anybody that early on. Karak's 1st post was a bit wolfy, but karak apparently is always somewhat wolfy, so thats a weak foundation to go on. He does say later that most of his reads are tone reads on d1.
Page 2:
Not much comes out of brian here. Mostly the posts that showed up when I page searched his name were a bunch of people wondering why he would put some of the most experianced players on his list for such bad reasons, stuff like that. Nightwood however continues to defend brian's SK strat guide post and attack cors as being wolfy for saying that the post was aweful and would make the SK seer hunt.
Page 3:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian
unvote
vote mdom
Only played 1 game with him and he was a villager who didn't post much.
again another vote from brian based on almost nothing. mdom is apparently like karak in that he tweaks people's wolfdar alot. The majority of the people brian votes for seem to be the easiest lynches in the game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian
I'm seeing wolves everywhere tbh, but in every rookie game I've played, at least half of the wolves were afraid to post and remained UTR all game. We've probably only got 2, max 3, wolves posting right now.
Pretty innocent, but it does put more suspicion on UTR people rather than the active people. It's not out of the realm of possiblity that an active wolf would make this post, especially if the wolves are actually being very active so far.
Quote:
Originally Posted by keshaldra
Also this.
This is my 3rd long game, but wolves always seem UTR to me. Plz to be watching people that haven't posted yet, or haven't posted much in terms of content (though this IS d1)
Keshaldra quoted Brian's post when he said this. Did not expect to find anything like this, but it definitely looks like brain could be a leveling wolf in his earlier post now.
Page 4:
Brian has started to get a little bit of a wagon at this point with 2 votes, behind Beer and jobeen, but it never gains steam. No posts from brian here.
Page 5:
Brian doesn't show up for the EOD, and doesn't vote at all. Odd behavior for a villager, not so odd for a wolf who knows the wagons are v-v?
Page 6:
Nothing about him here.
Page 7:
Here we have a huge post from brian;
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian
First, gj getting Keshaldra, serial killer. Kesh comes across as wolfy mcwolfenstein and I actually was planning on not voting him for a while just bc he's always going to look wolf to me. But Serial Killer definitely either:
1) Went for whom he thought was a lilkely wolf, or,
2) Killed at random.
No offense to Kesh but I doubt he was killed because SK thought he was a strong player.
My guess would be that SK's plan is to stay somewhat UTR, but not so much so that he becomes the target of wagons. His game plan is probably to get peeked, judging by how he went for a wolf, and try to maintain equilibrium during the game. We'll have to see who he kills tomorrow to confirm though, but my guess is he goes for a strong, vocal villie tonight.
Soulread: WinEvryRacex is villager. Win wears his soul on his sleeve though.
Villa lean: cardassian - tho I've never seen card be this vocal; his wolf game was pretty transparent.
Wolf lean: BitchiBee, JumanjiBoard, A.Ertbjerg, BingoBango. I'd say 2/4 of these are wolves.
Wolfie: djstu - went along with Kesh's ILB wagon suggestion. Both of them suggesting it was a good wagon but not voting till after starkwired started the wagon. He also suggests a wolfy strat that would help expose RedRanger.
Wolfie: Karak567 - lynch this man at some point pls.
corsakh probably has to go at some point; guarantee you'll all think he's a wolf at one time or another, but in general he spreads mass confusion and bad ideas. He's already started in this game by suggesting we lynch an AFK Day 1. I have a villa lean on him for now but dude, pls not be tarding up this game.
Cleared from NK's: I_Like_Beer. And trust me he's not a wolf this game.
Really sucks we didn't get tri-wagons going yesterday. Sucks even more that we had v-v wagons, so we aren't gonna learn much. Wolves prob didn't push either wagon yesterday, and maybe a few tossed in a vote so they look like they are participating, but I'd be willing to bet that half of them had random votes or no vote at all. Also, since it seems that the wagons were v/v, a good wolf strategy would have been to push leave their vote on random wagons, as this would help to out the Red Ranger.
There are a few things that struck me as inconsistant with brians d1 behavior and his reasoning is off several times as well.
First, he said Kesh came across as a wolf to him, but looking at his post history this is never mentioned and in fact we have a tenuous kesh-brian link between the two.
Second, he immediately starts off by saying WER is his top villager now. Except on d1 he was saying WER was screaming wolf and he was one of his top 3 wagons. This reeks of trying to not go against the grain and make waves, something a wolf would do.
He then names myself and Karak as wolfs. His still has no evidence for karak beyond a tone read, or at least doesn't volunteer any at this point. He offers some reasons for me, saying I went along with keshes ILB suggestion (wrong, I pounced in ILB for calling people with 0 posts wolf, the exact same thing stark did. I just agreed with kesh that ILB and stark would be good wagons), he also makes it sound like we waited for somebody else to lead the wagon (stark) but it was clearly obvious I was the one pushing the hardest for a beer lynch d1, and he then says I proposed a plan for the red ranger to expose himself which would hurt the village (Which is hilariously untrue, it was an obvious joke, nevermind the fact that the RR doesn't know who he is, to it's an unclaimable role. In fact I think if anybody did pop up and say they were the RR they would rocket straight to the top of my wolf list since it makes no sense a villager or seer would do that). So his evidence for me is pretty weak.
More intresting is that later in the post is this gem:
Quote:
Sucks even more that we had v-v wagons, so we aren't gonna learn much. Wolves prob didn't push either wagon yesterday, and maybe a few tossed in a vote so they look like they are participating, but I'd be willing to bet that half of them had random votes or no vote at all.
He makes the point that wolves probably weren't pushing wagons yesterday, but somehow thinks I'm a wolf when I led the beer wagon. Also he makes a point of saying that the wolves probably made random votes or made
no vote at all due to the confusion. Who didn't make a vote at EOD yesterday? Brain
I'll continue my analysis of brian's posts after this, but obv he's still been pushing for a karak wagon which is an aweful lynch. But right now I feel pretty confident in doing this,
vote brian
