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02-13-2015 , 11:54 AM
#21526
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i overbet the other night. i had AhKh. flop was QhTh5c. i check/shoved overbet and he called me with 9d9c, and ldo i missed.
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02-13-2015 , 11:58 AM
#21527
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fnord_too
With all you guys folding to any sort of play back, how is bluffing not effective live? Or is it just a very small percentage of players who have a fold button live?
correct
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02-13-2015 , 11:59 AM
#21528
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Well you were a favorite and he will probably keep calling your overbets with weak hands, so I hope you are check shoving top pair against this guy some.
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02-13-2015 , 12:05 PM
#21529
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fnord,

the best live players are making 10bb/~20hands, and doing so by playing pretty tight and with very little bluffing
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02-13-2015 , 12:09 PM
#21530
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anarchist
fnord,

the best live players are making 10bb/~20hands, and doing so by playing pretty tight and with very little bluffing
50 bb / 100 ?

So about a buy in every 5 hours? At what levels are we talking here? At 1/2 meh. At 10 / 20 that's $400 / hour, which seems a bit high.
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02-13-2015 , 12:11 PM
#21531
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im taking about $5-$10. and you can only play like 20 hands an hour. these people are making ~$100-$105 per hour
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02-13-2015 , 12:14 PM
#21532
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Oh, I was thinking you could get in 40ish hands per hour live.

Still, 50 bb / 100? Wow.
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02-13-2015 , 12:16 PM
#21533
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yes, it depends on depth of games, location, and stakes, but a winrate of $60 for $2-$5, $110 for $5-$10, and $180 for $10-$20 are not unheard of. the decisions the bad players make in these games are often horrifyingly bad
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02-13-2015 , 12:22 PM
#21534
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Live, overbetting the river works with nits, especially old regs. They'll actually say things like "that's too much to call" while folding TPGK face up.

If the turn brings two flush draws and some kind of straight draw and the nit only calls your bet you can overbet the river and get him to fold nearly always.
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02-13-2015 , 12:24 PM
#21535
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correct, but those are unique scenarios. obv omc's can be bluffed. and live passive idiots who only call on wet boards have a draw because they would c/r a made hand
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02-13-2015 , 12:35 PM
#21536
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I see a lot more people call overbets on the river than fold. Unless they missed a draw.
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02-13-2015 , 12:40 PM
#21537
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also correct. and most people are "static" in that they won't fold 2pr+ no matter what the circumstance (excluding super obv stuff like 4 flushes on board)
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02-13-2015 , 12:54 PM
#21538
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I seem to bet big when I'm going for thin value for some reason
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02-13-2015 , 12:55 PM
#21539
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probably because once you've played a lot of live poker you can tell with like 95% accuracy if you're good so it's not even thin value it's just value
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02-13-2015 , 01:26 PM
#21540
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Just about the only spot that overbetting is a regular part of my game is if I'm the preflop raiser and my flop bet gets raised. If the board has some draws present then I'll just shove my very best hands and my good draws and fold most of the rest of my hands. I don't want to put half my stack in the pot on a draw-heavy board oop. And people won't fold anything that beats an overpair regardless of how much money it is.
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02-13-2015 , 01:53 PM
#21541
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Going with the theme of overbetting..

1/2/5 PLO, villain is a random. We are playing ~600 effective

I raise to 15 w/ JT87
Villain calls from BB

Flop (32)
K95

Villain checks
I bet 25
Villain calls

Turn (82)
A
Villain checks
I bet 55
Villain calls

River (192)
K giving me the BD 2nd NF

Villain leads for pot

me:?

Comments on any streets are welcome

Spoiler:

My thoughts:

I probably would've heard back from a flopped set by the turn. AA doesn't seem likely due to pre-flop and the perfect spot for him to c/r ott if he decided to play AA like this. AK I probably think he does the same and c/r. Flopped Kings up seems plausible, but to lead out full pot seems strange after he fills up. If he has the BD nut flush, leading out for full pot seems silly as well. For all he knows given my line (except maybe the turn sizing) I have Kings up/set and if he puts me on trips he'd probably bet less for value.

Which is to say all plausible hands were POEd away at one point or another in my thought process
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02-13-2015 , 01:56 PM
#21542
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why don't Kings up that filled lead pot when the flush hits?
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02-13-2015 , 01:58 PM
#21543
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I'd guess over betting should be a pretty limited part of a good plo strategy.
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02-13-2015 , 02:05 PM
#21544
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I mean I can see him thinking a bd flush or underboat might not bet if checked to, but might call if bet into. Seems like a natural spot to bet k9 k5 ak hands.
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02-13-2015 , 02:08 PM
#21545
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or he could have like 87ccXX or KQXX. I cawl
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02-13-2015 , 02:10 PM
#21546
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but it's close between call and fold
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02-13-2015 , 02:15 PM
#21547
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I fold against a random.

I think your turn bet is too small. I would bet pot.
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02-13-2015 , 02:16 PM
#21548
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I think a call there would be very optimistic. I fold.
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02-13-2015 , 02:18 PM
#21549
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maybe pot as a bluff!
Last edited by Anarchist; 02-13-2015 at 02:19 PM. Reason: this 4 card game is fun
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02-13-2015 , 03:01 PM
#21550
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pretty weird hand
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