I like your reraise filthy, I think it's awesome to find good equity spots with marginal hands and you'll be flipping with dead money in the pot a huge % of the time.

Yeah filthy, like that is a duplicate of my earlier poast, where I put your equity if erryone folds at 40 rather than 33.5. Everything hinges on how often you think UTG+1 has a hand based on his early position raise. I still think this means your decision point is facing the drunk raise. If you consider UTG+1 loose enough that you reraise at that point, then you obv stack off vs the allin. Folding would be inconsistent.

the only way raise folding is bad is if you think people behind you are gonna raise or call more than like 30%. otherwise raise/folding is profitable.

i agree with you that normally the decision comes on your first action here, facing the shorty drunk jam, and thinking mostly about the utg+1 raise.

Yeah I think we agree. Point is after the reraise, either you're calling the shove or you already screwed up.

oh i just thought of another one. i had AJo in early position. i raised 20 and like 5 people called. sb jams for like 210. bb is from out of town and he's waiting for 5/10 game and says he plays higher than that too. he has like 3k in his stack(max buy in is 500). i have like 850 in mine. bb calls, but doesn't raise. wtf do i do with AJo? fold, right?

Fold yeah. Youre topping out at a super small edge.

i did fold, but it sucked when the shorty flipped over A9o and the bb flipped over 55. he said he would have felt real stupid if i raised. i thought about raising. but i thought the shorty was way better than A9, and i thought bb was even better than the shorty. his flat seemed stronger to me than a reraise.

wat

He just posted the math showing that this isn't true. The only mistake he made in the hand was raising more than the allowable minimum.

(44+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KQo) you're 50-50 against this range. I would think a drunk idiot could be shoving with a lot worse. In a loose wild game 88 is good enough to get it in preflop.

i didn't want to argue about it, but i think that drunk idiot's range was probably more like any PP, A5o, any suited ace, any broadway, plus some random crap like 97s lol. i'm serious. i've seen guys shove their last 65 in with all kinds of stuff, especially when they are drunk and giving up.

ajo is an easy min raise

i wanted to be able to fold. i would have folded if one of the blinds had shoved. one of the blinds had a big stack and was not a maniac. if he shoved then my 88 is crushed.

if bb has any two and will call a shove it's probably a shove!

but kidding ajo is an easy fold

I know. That's why you should have raised the absolute minimum.

It's actually not even bad to shove a lot of those hands (not A5). He's also getting a nice overlay on his money and won't be dominated too often.

oh i thought i was raising the minimum.

and i misread your post. i thought you were saying i should have raised bigger. i see.

His numbers are unrealistic though. Let's take his number of 33.5 EV if everyone folds and -130 if he 3bet/folds, assuming only UTG+1 ever shoves - forget about the blinds for a sec. The breakeven percentage here is UTG shoving 20.5% of his hands (.205 * 130 ~= .795 * 33.5) not 30% as he suggests.

Let's set up a situation where you want to fold after he shoves, which is actually pretty hard to do. You're not quite getting odds versus {99+, AQs+, AKo} so let's go with that. That's 4.2% of hands, so for UTG to be shoving only 20% of his opening range here he'd need to have opened 21% of hands. Here's one example of 21% of hands:

{ 22+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, T9s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+ }

See what I mean? If he opens that loose UTG+1 in a loose game and Filthy has seen him be willing to stack off pretty light then he's going to shove lighter than { 99+, AQs+, AKo }. Either he opens pretty tight, in which case you should fold at your first opportunity, or he opens loose, in which case you should 3bet/call. Raise/folding can only be right if he opens super loose and then turns into a huge pussy when shoving, which is not Filthy's read on this guy at all.

It was also unrealistic to assume that he only has 50% equity against the drunk shortstack. For example, we're about 57.7% against a range of any pair, any ace, any two broadways. And even if you don't think he's shoving any ace, etc, you can swap out some of those combos for low suited connectors which we also crush and which people definitely shove with sometimes in that type of spot.

You've also cherry-picked a range where UTG shoves exactly every better pair. Against a typical opponent at full ring this is absurd. When I played full ring online, it was basically lighting money on fire to stack off KK preflop in a pot that had been opened from early position (by anyone). Don't know what the dynamics are like in live games in California in 2014 but I really doubt that people are getting it in pre with 99 for full stacks like hardly ever. Even if someone correctly realizes that filthy is making an isolation play with a range that's much wider than a typical cold fourbet range, they still can't shove stuff like 99 because 88 has to be near the very bottom of our range in this spot, just due to math and the pot being protected by the all-in player. 99 is just going to be crushed regardless of what we do with the bottom of our range unless our isolation range includes tons of unpaired broadways. 99 is still slightly short of 50% equity against a range of {66+, AT+}. And isolating in filthy's spot with stuff as weak as 66 is pretty sketchy when considering that 88 is already a marginal situation. AT also looks to be worse than 88 against the range I suggested previously for the shortstack. I think a reasonable range for filthy would be like {88+, AJ+} and against that range a player could only profitably get it in with {JJ+, AK}. Getting it in with TT looks to be about breakeven after accounting for the small overlay. And those are best-case calculations since they assume filthy never finds a correct fold when faced with a shove. For a player who isn't sure if filthy is going to be isolating too lightly, their range should be even tighter.

So I think the raise/folding EV is much better than what you put it at, and we don't have odds to call a shove against reasonable ranges. It looks like calling against a range of {QQ+, AK} is a small losing play. And that range is the one that we have the best equity against, among reasonable options. (In other words, our equity is better against a range like {KK+, AK} but no one in the real world ever shoves AK 100% in a spot where they shove QQ 0%.)

In this case filthy did stack off against the guy so I've lost track of whether we're debating what to do vs him in specific or against a typical player.

If we decide that we're pot committed at the point of making our raise, when we have the very bottom of our range, then we might as well just put all of our money in the pot right then instead of raise/calling. This will take away the illusion of folding equity from hands that we really don't want to be in the pot with us. Really the only reason not to just shove when pot-committed with the bottom of our range like this would be if we think that the smaller raise looks stronger and will fold out even more hands. But this just brings us back full circle to the issue of whether we should actually call the shove.

it seems like 80-90% of my sessions i start of losing ~50-100bbs, then i win it back and more. up 2100 tonight

one of the dealers told me i should get a box at the casino so i don't have to carry cash around. i think i will next time i go. is there any downside to having a box at the casino?

Fun hand from last night


Playing 1-2 plo. Villain 1k. Hero covers. Dealt 56TT. Straddle and villain raises preflop in sb. Flop 889r (105 pot). Villain pots I flat. Turn 7o. Villain leads 105. (315 pot) I raise to 300 villain calls. River 9. Villain ships I call. [Spoiler] villain has a naked 8 [/spoiler]

Wat

I don't get PLO at all. That turn raise looks suicidal but I assume I don't understand the game.

This was 5 handed drunken shaningans game. Villain had been up for 3 days. His turn bet screamed weakness so I was raising to take it down. After he flatted I knew I just needed to fade the river. On most rivers Im folding to his donk bet. But he just mistaked the 9 for a bluff card.

probably just call turn call river

nice call tho!

I'd also just fold the flop sometimes, possibly even most times

http://existentialcomics.com/comic/55

philosophers are back at the poker table

That's some highbrow humor right there.

Epicurus got coolered