Post Crazy Poker Happenings to Share with Poggers here - Page 668

It seems to me that we're in a bad position with very little information, and any decision to roll with our holding is at the best of times a thin value proposition. We are in no way committed to this hand and the turn is not going to further illuminate things for us (except for where we're really awful cards come out), and the majority of the time this player who was described as "snug" with the capacity for somewhat odd holdings seems to like his hand. I doubt that's AT. It's not time to be taking really marginal stands.

But maybe I'm a huge pussy.

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07-02-2012 , 01:44 PM

#16677

CPHoya

Warden of Taipan Island

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73,265

Don't agree that there are a lot of hands that Gad was beating.

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07-02-2012 , 01:46 PM

#16678

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,008

Quote:

Originally Posted by CPHoya

Honestly it sounds like you did a pretty good job of maximizing your fate given some runbad. loldonkaments and all that.

Yeah (and thanks), tho I was mad at myself about the second tourney ($1.5k).

Just past dinner break; I'd recently chipped up to 35 BB and finally had a stack I could do something with beyond push/fold. Super active/splashy-in-a-good-way/thinking guy opens to 2.5 BB from HJ with heaps and heaps behind, bad CO flats, I have 99 in the SB and decide to 3bet to like 7.5 BB for some reason. Original raiser 4bets to 18 BB, flatter folds, and I decide that I have an image where he can be doing this really wide (which, in retrospect, was wrong, I think) so I adjlkdjhedfs decide to jam with no real fold equity because I hate chips, I guess.

oh well

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07-02-2012 , 01:47 PM

#16679

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,008

Quote:

Originally Posted by CPHoya

Don't agree that there are a lot of hands that Gad was beating.

+1

absolutely best case scenario is JJ, obv, and I think he flats that so often there

I don't even think he has a toooooon of nfd combos

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07-02-2012 , 01:48 PM

#16680

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anarchist

where do you get that from

okay so you have ~12 combos of J8

9 combos total of 77, 99, TT

Those are the hands we are afraid of right? Thats 21 combos

We have ~ 8 combos of AT, ~25 combos of suited spades that might be in his PF calling range (including AK based on him flat calling with it earlier), 6 combos of JJ, and possibly even 8 or so combos of T+gutshots.

Its easy to estimate 47 combos of cards we ARENT afraid of compared to the 21 in which we are behind.

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07-02-2012 , 01:50 PM

#16681

Willi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 41,541

Quote:

Originally Posted by Systolic

He does not flat so loose in EP.

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07-02-2012 , 01:51 PM

#16682

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,008

Systo, I think he can easily show up with AA/KK

But i don't think he ever has J8, which balances that out

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07-02-2012 , 01:51 PM

#16683

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Oh, forgot to add in 2 pair possibilites

Add about 6 combos to the 27... so 27bad combos vs 47 good combos

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07-02-2012 , 01:51 PM

#16684

derwipok

Power Ranger

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 54,334

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadarene

Also, is there a good online equity calculator that doesn't require download? I can't download apps to my work computer, and my phone with PokerCruncher is at home

http://www.holdemrangetool.com/

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07-02-2012 , 01:52 PM

#16685

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willi

He does not flat so loose in EP.

Unless he sees hero as tight/weak and wants to make a play

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07-02-2012 , 01:53 PM

#16686

Anarchist

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 75,871

Quote:

Originally Posted by Systolic

Oh, forgot to add in 2 pair possibilites

Add about 6 combos to the 27... so 27bad combos vs 47 good combos

even with this generous calculation your shove is still bad because you lose 5x as much when he has you beat

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07-02-2012 , 01:53 PM

#16687

ibavly

2010 PSOP Champion

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 24,513

systo you can't just list every hand that could possibly make sense and call that his range

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07-02-2012 , 01:53 PM

#16688

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Not saying Gad WAS tight weak, but to an erratic player, tight = tight. I think based on villains line he caught a reasonable hand, but with his propensity to underplay stronger holdings I think his donk bet actually represents a marginally WEAKER hand than a standard donk raise might

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07-02-2012 , 01:54 PM

#16689

Willi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 41,541

Quote:

Originally Posted by Systolic

Unless he sees hero as tight/weak and wants to make a play

I think you are in too much love with just an overpair and want to find reasons not to fold.

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07-02-2012 , 01:56 PM

#16690

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Maybe theres some secret live MTT strategy Im not getting here, but this seems like a clear ship to me the more I think about it

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07-02-2012 , 01:58 PM

#16691

Anarchist

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 75,871

Quote:

Originally Posted by Systolic

Maybe theres some secret live MTT strategy Im not getting here, but this seems like a clear ship to me the more I think about it

villain is bladed. a lot

Quote

07-02-2012 , 01:59 PM

#16692

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,008

Quote:

Originally Posted by Systolic

Maybe theres some secret live MTT strategy Im not getting here, but this seems like a clear ship to me the more I think about it

Do you think we have any fold equity vs. hands with reasonable equity against us?

Like, if he calls the ship, what's the best-case scenario to you for the range he turns over? Do you think he folds AA/KK to a jam?

Also take into account the fact that this is a fairly slow structure (60 min levels, lots of levels) and a pretty soft field, and we have a good amount of chips. Jamming just seems super high-variance and I'm not sure what we accomplish.

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07-02-2012 , 02:00 PM

#16693

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,008

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anarchist

villain is bladed. a lot

not bladed (he never has J8), but we have ~9 percent equity a lot, I think, yeah

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07-02-2012 , 02:00 PM

#16694

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

I mean if you just look at the stack sizes

Its not like villain 'trapped' hero here. Hes not making a play that leaves hero committed even if hero calls.

The play just seems weak to me because on a turn card villain has GOT to be in a weird position if any kind of spade comes, and he isnt concerned with that apparently.

Its a play to push hero off of a reasonable pot based on fold equity

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07-02-2012 , 02:01 PM

#16695

derwipok

Power Ranger

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 54,334

Quote:

Originally Posted by Systolic

I think a lot depends on how the table was going. If the table played fairly loose he could show up with a suited connector (QJs-87s) here because he expected to get some overcallers pre.

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:02 PM

#16696

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadarene

Do you think we have any fold equity vs. hands with reasonable equity against us?

Like, if he calls the ship, what's the best-case scenario to you for the range he turns over? Do you think he folds AA/KK to a jam?

Also take into account the fact that this is a fairly slow structure (60 min levels, lots of levels) and we have a good amount of chips. Jamming just seems super high-variance and I'm not sure what we accomplish.

I dont think he calls a ship here

But if he does call a ship we are probably beat

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:02 PM

#16697

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,008

The funny thing is that Systo is both very right and very wrong here, based on results

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:03 PM

#16698

Gadarene

bussing tammates

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 83,008

Quote:

Originally Posted by Systolic

I dont think he calls a ship here

But if he does call a ship we are probably beat

So why are we shipping?

Quote

07-02-2012 , 02:06 PM

#16699

filthyvermin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 60,779

man, i am terrible at normal poker. before reading your thoughts i would have 3bet shoved.

effective stacks are 40bbs, right? i guess 40bbs is not shallow enough to get it in on this flop with an overpair vs an early position preflop caller who raises your flop bet?

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07-02-2012 , 02:06 PM

#16700

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadarene

So why are we shipping?

Because its the best way to win the hand. If we three bet and he ships we are in a much more difficult predicament because as stated before we cant really fold, and in the case that he is on a draw we dont want him see any more cards on his own terms so we put the decision to him

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