In theory I guess if he bluffs River it should be with kX hands and we block those so this may be our worst hand to call.


Actually given positions things could be looser. Probably still a bad candidate to call.

If you raise the river I think it needs to be a shove. Theory-wise, it's generally bad to make a pot-committing raise on the river for value with a non-nut hand because it results in this happening.

Are you talking about the final raise? If we call we're hoping he's a fish who thinks a queen is the nuts.

Nah our River raise has to be a click back pretty sure. Can't rip anything as a bluff here.

I guess our most likely check back value ax hand is aq so maybe him having a queen is the best bluff.

One more hand from yesterday, couple of hours after the last hand.

I have around $5,000 on the button. Same guy from hand 2 above opens to $40. Being this deep I 3 bet to $120. He calls.

Flop is K 9 4 with two spades. He leads, for $175, I call after some thought.

Turn is a Ten bringing a second flush draw. He bets $425, I call.

River is a K both flush draws brick, he checks. I bet $1,800. He tanks and talks to himself for a while then calls.

You didn't tell us your hand.

I know, I'm wondering what my range should look like in that spot.

It probably depends on what happened in the other hand. If you folded then that may lead him to believe that you'll float with garbage to make a move in threebet pots. And if you called then that would have some effect as well. His river check reps a bluff-catcher (or he's just giving up with air, which is sort of irrelevant for the analysis) so prior history is really important for determining your action. That said, he shouldn't have a reason to fear a boat, so I think your value range could be pretty wide here even with this sizing. If he check-calls with a straight then I'd shrug it off. Kinda hard to do an unbiased analysis when already knowing that he called.

I called in the previous hand and he turned over A8ss for quad Aces.

I didn't see his hand in the last one as I showed 99 and it was good. His body language and what he was saying under his breath made me think he turned a straight and I rivered him but I can't be sure. I don't see him checking a straight on the river though.

I raise his flop lead a ton on that k94 board

Coming back to this again -- I think that this advice is -EV unless we have a dead read on the player that he'll only ever shove with quads and that with a queen he'll call a small raise but not a large one. And we can't have that type of read on someone we're playing with for the first time.

This spot is analogous to in LHE where in order to raise a river bet for value you need to be good 2/3 of the time against your opponent's non-bluffs because you figure to win one extra bet when good but lose two extra bets when beaten. Here we lose an extra $1600 when we run into quads but we usually only win an extra $600 when we're good. We could try to improve our strategy by folding to a shove, but if there's any chance of us folding the winner in a huge pot then that's also an EV killer. Our opponent presumably has a few more Ax combos in his preflop range than Qx, so even after adjusting for card removal he's probably only about twice as likely to have a Q as an A (and I'd need some good evidence of him being a monkey before I'd expect to see him bomb the river and call a raise with JJ or worse). So I stand by my initial assessment: we should either shove or call, but not make a small raise.

We've also overlooked that he full-potted the river, which probably also reduces the likelihood of him having a second-best hand that can call a raise. Depending on how we weight that, we might have to consider that him having an A is nearly as likely has him having a Q, or maybe even more so. Given that we're too deep for a shove to lead to an automatic shrug-call, flatting his river bet could very well be the best option despite how nitty it feels.

The problem is it's easy to have ax and if either of us have ax then we know the other person doesn't have ax.

I had to play some 1/2 waiting for the real game. Straddle to 5 on the bottom two limps I make it 20 with qj off straddle and both limpers call. Floor ak6 rainbow small blind donks 45 fold I make it 110 fold he folds aq face up. Are holdem players always such nits?

5/10

utg opens 35. two callers. hj makes it 150. im co with QQ. i call. btn shoves 800. folds around to me. i fold face up. btn shows AA

boom!

good work

normally I wouldn't recommend folding face up, but in your case having them think you're a nit is probably great, so

i limped KTo $20 from sb. bb makes it $520. i call

I'm listening...

did they misclick a 500 chip instead of 100?

He had AKo?

sorry that was the only interesting part of the hand. we checked it to the river. he bet the river and i folded my K high

he didn't misclick. i didn't either.

a couple rounds earlier same situation i had J5o and limped to 20. he made it 400. i PAINFULLY folded and showed. he showed 52o. i would have called but J5 is a little weak and stacks were quite a bit shallower at that point

a little earlier i limped utg3. he made it 200. another guy made it 600. i shoved 2800 effective. he called with J7s

did you suck out?

Wouldn't it be easier to just buy a ruler if you wanted to have a pure dick-measuring contest?

Where’s the sweet taste of financial ruin in that?

no dick measuring contest at all. not even close. but i could see how you'd think that.

i had AKo and he binked a 7