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Pokercast WSOP Fantasy Pool 2019 Pokercast WSOP Fantasy Pool 2019

05-12-2019 , 10:09 AM
Random.org also thinks I should check out Palm Harbor Florida.
Palm Harbor is along the Gulf Of Mexico coastline in the Tampa/St Pete area.
They have a team of 4 players and one of them is quite interesting.
Kristan Lord has one cash in FLO8 (lifetime) but every other cash has been in Triple Draw or HORSE. Last year his 2 cashes were a 13th (Triple Draw) and a 19th (HORSE).
The other 3 players are longshots.
Current payout if Palm Harbor wins: $500.
Four of my homegame players couldn't afford $20 for a entry in this pool so they each threw in $5 to get a entry. They have Palm Harbor.
My 2 cents: I'd probably make Palm Harbor one of my 20 picks but just because Kristan Lord is such an interesting player. Even if he had a deep run in HORSE or Triple Draw would he even use 10K of that to enter the Main Event? Probably not because it looks like he doesn't even play NLH. Avoid.
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05-13-2019 , 09:56 AM
15 days to WSOP 2019.
I was kinda expecting some entries to come in on the weekend. Because, the early entries do have an advantage. The perfect example of that is Victoria Canada which Random.org has suggested I look at.
Victoria has 12 players and there are a total of just over 10,000 in this pool. If they are average players then their odds should be just under 1000 to 1.
Xander biscuits was the first 2+2er to get his entry in. He picked Victoria and that caused Victoria to drop from a $1000 payout to a $500 payout. That will discourage anyone else from taking Victoria. And if it does then it's likely that Victoria will float back up to $1000.
And most of Victoria's player are of the common garden variety type. Their best player is Calen McNeil who is a bracelet winner and cashed 4 times last year.
My 2 cents worth: No way! If I pick Victoria, the payout will drop to $333. Way too low for a team with 12 garden variety players. I'll leave these guys to xander biscuits who has them at $500.
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05-13-2019 , 10:17 AM
I didn't want to give away anyone's secret pick that they found and don't want anyone else to take so they can get it at a big price. Random.org is doing it's bit to help out. It's suggesting just mediocre teams for me to look at. And now it says look at Las Vegas Nevada.
Hahaha. Las Vegas currently has a payout of $15. $15 when it costs $20 to enter.
Sure they have a lot of good players but $20 TO WIN $15!!!!
You had better use more than 1 of your 20 entries for Las Vegas because otherwise you could end up losing if you win.
My 2 cents worth: Always check the payout price before selecting. Avoid like the plague.
One of Las Vegas' many decent players: JJ Liu.
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05-13-2019 , 11:08 PM
Know what I didn't get right about this year's pool? The quickpicks! I figured we'd get about 100 entries this year and at least half would be quickpicks.
How could it miss? Send in $20 and in return get a big bag of players that you could cheer for during the WSOP. At worst: get 6 weeks of entertainment for $20. At best: 6 weeks of entertainment plus a big stack of cash!
So far, only 4 quickpicks have sold (and I bought one of them). Sunday was Mother's Day and nobody bought a quickpick for their mother!!!
Still lots of interest in the regular entries as we're up to 6700 views for this thread. However, it looks like the quickpicks were a bust.
We still have the $1000 (50 entry) guarantee. Any extra entries (to make up 50) go to charity (Doctors Without Borders). I may end up making a big donation to charity this year.
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05-14-2019 , 12:09 PM
And then there were 2 (weeks until the WSOP starts).
Random.org thinks I should look at Studio City California. Studio City is a suburb of Hollywood which in turn is a suburb of Los Angeles.
Probably nobody is a native of Studio City - people move there because they're in show biz.
Studio City has 8 players. #1 on the list is an actress from Amarillo Texas. #2 is a producer from Montreal Quebec.
The actress (Arden Cho (pictured)) cashed in the Main Event last year but that was only her 2nd lifetime cash. The producer (Matt Salsberg) has a long resume of poker cashes so does have a shot at winning this.
My 2 cents: Studio City is currently set to pay $500 per entry. That sounds about right. You could do worse.
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05-15-2019 , 11:50 AM
With just 13 days remaining, Random.org thinks I should have a look at Canyon Country.
Canyon Country is one of the endless suburbs of Los Angeles.
They have 4 players of which only one is a contender: Casey Stewart.
Casey has cashed in the Main Event twice. In 2014 he was 108th and in 2016 he was 290th.
Nobody has selected Canyon Country yet. That means that if you select Canyon Country you will get it at a $1000 payout. A good bet? No.
There are a little over 10,000 players in the pool so that for $1000/1 you should get about 10 average players. Four just isn't enough.
This also illustrates the importance of the PPC. If Casey Stewart should win this and nobody selected him: the winner will be the last longer in the PPC.
My 2 cents: If you like Canyon Country then load up on mixed game players who might play the PPC. Why? There are about 3000 Canyon Countrys out there. One might get lucky.
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05-15-2019 , 07:18 PM
Does it have to be one of the players from the list you gave, can we get tickets from anyone from the town who qualifies? (I think you answered this earlier, but I don't want to search 9 pages to search)

How deep does one have to go in the ME for it to count, does it have to be the FT or could it be 268th?

If I pick a city 3 times and it is picked once by someone else, do I get $750 or $500?

And the rules say if a player gets more than 1 entry, it would go to another member of that city. But why does that matter if you are picking the city and not the players, 1 is all you need, correct?
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05-15-2019 , 07:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ByeByeJoe
Does it have to be one of the players from the list you gave, can we get tickets from anyone from the town who qualifies? (I think you answered this earlier, but I don't want to search 9 pages to search)

How deep does one have to go in the ME for it to count, does it have to be the FT or could it be 268th?

If I pick a city 3 times and it is picked once by someone else, do I get $750 or $500?

And the rules say if a player gets more than 1 entry, it would go to another member of that city. But why does that matter if you are picking the city and not the players, 1 is all you need, correct?
Lots of good questions....and easy ones too.

The player/team list I posted is rock solid. Those 10,000+ players are the only players who are playing in this pool. And the teams are rock solid too. Only the players listed for that team are on that team. No player will be added. No player will be deleted. No player will change teams.

For your 2nd question, I'm assuming you're talking about the "last longer". It's the last player standing. Might not happen til the final table. Might be with 268 still left. Every player who gets a ticket to the last longer is in contention. As soon as there is only one left, we have a winner.

If there are 4 entries for team X and you have 3 of them, you get $750 if team X wins. It's $250 per entry, so $250 X 3 = $750

One is all you need but more is better!
Example: Benny Glaser gets multiple tickets to the last longer. That means that his teammate Toby Lewis gets one of his extra tickets. Then, what if Toby Lewis wins the last longer? Southampton wins with Toby Lewis even though Toby Lewis never earned a ticket. He got into the last longer because his teammate had an extra to give him. Better to have Toby and Benny going for you rather than Benny by himself.

Any other questions anyone?
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05-15-2019 , 08:00 PM
BTW, one of the fellows who was in the pool last year just won a SCOOP event.
That should cover his $20 entry fee this year!
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05-16-2019 , 10:34 AM
<In response to "The Vig" who is looking for old Pokercast pool to join.>

Same here. I'd love to join a pool playing the old format (any buy-in level up to $300).

I appreciate what FerencL tried to do, but just can't with this one -- way too confusing.
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05-16-2019 , 12:04 PM
Now just 12 days til WSOP 2019.
I'm confused by the folks who think this pool is confusing!
It's been set up to be confusing only if you want it to be confusing. There are 3 ways to enter: from amazingly simple to as confusing as you like.
The simplest way is you send in $20 and if you win, we send you back your winnings. You don't even have to cheer on your players. You don't have to do anything except send in $20. I don't believe there has ever been a pool that was simpler than that. It's like buying a lottery ticket.
Anyway.... back to another example for those who like things a bit more confusing. Random.org says I should check out Rancho Santa Fe.
Rancho Santa Fe is a suburb of San Diego. They have 4 players on their team.
An easy one! These 4 players are pretty much no-hopers and the payout price is $500. Julie Polatchek (pictured) cashed the most times in 2018: twice.
My 2 cents: avoid like the plague
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05-16-2019 , 03:19 PM
I think most of us here play poker because we believe/hope that we have a skill edge. We generally DON'T play slot machines, table games or buy lottery tickets because we know that it's either random luck (or totally rigged against us).

So for me, I want to choose players in the pool who I feel are priced right, and who might really break out at this year's WSOP. What I don't want to do is just pick cities, and then have to factor in pari-mutuel (?) considerations.

Anyways, more power to those of you who understand the rules, and who don't mind wading through all of the players in each city. Good luck, and I hope you get a lot of runners. (I just won't be one of 'em.)
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05-16-2019 , 08:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by monsterwongpoker
I think most of us here play poker because we believe/hope that we have a skill edge. We generally DON'T play slot machines, table games or buy lottery tickets because we know that it's either random luck (or totally rigged against us).

So for me, I want to choose players in the pool who I feel are priced right, and who might really break out at this year's WSOP. What I don't want to do is just pick cities, and then have to factor in pari-mutuel (?) considerations.

Anyways, more power to those of you who understand the rules, and who don't mind wading through all of the players in each city. Good luck, and I hope you get a lot of runners. (I just won't be one of 'em.)
Yes, what you say makes perfect sense. I tried to make this pool for everyone but trying to master the rules and then spend all that time or research for just $20 wouldn't make any sense for you. This pool is not for everyone! Good luck with your other endeavors monterwongpoker.

However, I play poker just for fun. And a pool based on poker is the same for me: just for fun.
For example I tried the $109 Stud8 Scoop today. They sat me next to Benny Glaser. Luckily I survived that. Then they moved me to another table and sat me next to Shaun Deeb! And then I knocked him out! I ended up using two bullets and cashing in 73rd for a loss of about $50. So, as I left I looked at how Benny and Shaun were doing. Benny now had over 1M chips in 3rd place. Shaun was on his 3rd bullet but had 700K in chips so was looking good too. I lost money but it was certainly worth it. A lot of fun playing today. Hopefully a lot of fun when the pool starts on the 29th.
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05-17-2019 , 09:55 AM
Just 11 days left til WSOP 2019.
Today Random.org thinks I should look at Toronto.
Another lesson here: enter early. Both Rdsxfan and xander biscuits picked Toronto. The price has been driven down to just $58 thus discouraging other from picking Toronto.
Toronto has 3 players with 10+ cashes last year. Plus Daniel Negreanu, Ari Engel, Greenwood brothers, Sorel Mizzi, Griffin Benger and Shyam Srinivasan. Plus a full cast of regular players.
My 2 cents: One of the best teams out there but one of the lowest prices at $58. It may be too late if you select them late. Grab them now or look elsewhere for value.
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05-18-2019 , 11:12 AM
Only 2 weekends til WSOP 2019.
So far, not too many taking my advice to get their entries in early.
Today, Random.org says I should look at Houston Texas.
Houston is one of the original hotbeds of poker. Before the shift to Las Vegas, Houston would have been one of the best places to find high stakes poker.
They have 101 players but no big stars. Melanie Weisner would be the most recognizable name. Nobody had more than 4 cashes last year.
But they have a secret weapon: Michael Dyer. Michael finished third in the Main Event last year (his only cash). However, since then he's been using those $3M+ for lots of buyins. He won a PCA tournament for 336K. He's also cashed in Australia and Spain. Expect more than 1 cash from Michael this year.
My 2 cents: Random.org finally gave me a contender to look into. At $142 Houston doesn't look too bad at all. I'd grab them fast. I can't see $142 holding up.
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05-19-2019 , 10:06 AM
Everyone still ignoring my advice: get your entries in early. Just 9 days til WSOP 2019. Remember, there will be a news blackout on the last 2 days (27th and 28th) about the odds. This is to stop people waiting til the very last second and possibly missing the deadline.
Random.org says I should check out Lakewood Colorado. Another good choice here from Random.
Lakewood is a suburb of Denver.
Lakewood is one of those teams that nobody has. Should they win, the money goes to those who have the last longer in the PPC. That's why I tried to get as many good mixed game players as I could on my entry. I'm hoping for a big upset in the Main Event. An upset like Lakewood Colorado.
They have 7 players. All cashed in at least a $1000 tournament. No sub-$1000s.
Nicholas Derke finished 5th in HORSE and 6th in 8-Game.
Krzysztof Stybaniewicz (pictured) has a couple of good cashes in 2019 so he should have plenty of confidence.
My 2 cents: Lakewood is definitely worth a look. First entry to pick Lakewood gets them at $1000. If nobody picks them, I might end up cheering for them.
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05-20-2019 , 12:45 PM
And now....8 more days til WSOP 2019.
It looks like the prizepool will be $1000. I know there'll be a flurry of activity near the 28th but I can't see it being enough to get us above 50 entries. I know I always entered this pool right at the last minute but I don't really remember if there were others who entered early.
For those waiting right to the last minute, you do have one thing going for you: Daniel Negreanu's 25K fantasy pool which goes on the 27th this year. You can get a lot of inside information by watching the webcast of that event. What people are willing to pay for Ivey will tell you a lot.
Random.org gave me another interesting team to check out today: Omaha.
So the question is: are players from Omaha good at Omaha? NO!!
I looked at the main players on team Omaha and I didn't see a single cash in Omaha!
Omaha has 20 players but 8 of those were single cashes in sub $1000 tourneys. The only contender appears to be Ryan Phan. He finished 11th in the Main Event last year and continued doing well this year. He had a $47K cash just 4 days ago.
My 2 cents: Omaha is currently listed at $200. But with only 1 bona fide contender this is just too low. And they can't play Omaha! Pass.
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05-20-2019 , 07:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FerencL
For those waiting right to the last minute, you do have one thing going for you: Daniel Negreanu's 25K fantasy pool which goes on the 27th this year. You can get a lot of inside information by watching the webcast of that event. What people are willing to pay for Ivey will tell you a lot.
Yeah.... ok. Ivey went for $50 in Negreanus draft last year and played less than 5 events
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05-21-2019 , 11:08 AM
The final week.
Random.org says check out Adelaide Australia.
An easy one. A team with 4 solid players and one superstar.
James Obst says he's gonna tear the Rio apart this summer. Disclaimer: may include some cash games.
Adelaide is listed as $200 to win.
My 2 cents: What are you waiting for? Pick Adelaide. Maybe put 2 of your 20 on Adelaide. 3? Only if you enter early.
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05-21-2019 , 02:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabble303
Yeah.... ok. Ivey went for $50 in Negreanus draft last year and played less than 5 events
Right. $50 would indicate that nobody knew what his plans were.
If he goes > $100 this year then someone knows he's taking bracelet bets. If he's much below $50 then he must have told somebody that he's not interested in the WSOP this year.
Last year he played a bunch early and then quit until the Main Event. Must of been willing to play a full schedule if his early results warranted it. Or he just got bored. I think only bracelet bets will keep him going.
Riverside is currently at $200. I wouldn't take them unless Ivey goes for around $100 or better. Of course, if a lot of late money goes on Ivey it might ruin the price.

Last edited by FerencL; 05-21-2019 at 02:55 PM.
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05-22-2019 , 09:16 AM
Quick pick me up - 20 sent by PP
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05-22-2019 , 09:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eleanor60
Quick pick me up - 20 sent by PP

An Der Nybro - Germany
Auckland - New Zealand
Austin TXUnited States
Austin TXUnited States
Badajoz - Spain
Bastrop TXUnited States
Belmont CAUnited States
Boynton Beach FLUnited States
Caballito - Argentina
Canton TXUnited States
Cathedral City CAUnited States
Chicago ILUnited States
Crestwood ILUnited States
Geneva NYUnited States
Highland Village TXUnited States
Indian Wells CAUnited States
Maple Glen PAUnited States
Marson - France
Memphis TNUnited States
Miami FLUnited States
Oceanside CAUnited States
Palm Desert CAUnited States
Phoenix AZUnited States
Pyrmont - Australia
Rindge NHUnited States
Rio De Janeiro - Brazil
Schlieren - Switzerland
Seattle WAUnited States
Surrey - Canada
Tianjin - China
Tokyo - Japan
Toledo - Brazil
Torrance CAUnited States
Traverse City MIUnited States
Varna - Bulgaria
Vilnius - Lithuania
Warsaw - Poland
West Hartford CTUnited States
Westchester ILUnited States
Ypsilanti MIUnited States
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05-22-2019 , 09:52 AM
Yesssss = No Las Vegas
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05-22-2019 , 10:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eleanor60
Yesssss = No Las Vegas
That's the good news.
The bad news is that Random.org gave you Toledo Brazil instead of Toledo Ohio.
Toledo Ohio (Ben Yu, David Peters etc) now listed as a $333 payout!

The new odds.

List of selected teams (excluding placeholders for charity).

Thanks for the entry eleanor60.
Here's one of the players on your team this year:
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05-22-2019 , 11:03 AM
Mr Strelitz, come on down!

Don't worry I'll get some more in, may opt for one quick pick with only 5 teams
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