POG Politics Thread Version 3 - Page 21 - Puzzles and Other Games Forum

maybe i’m wrong and the GOP will manage to fill it but i would be surprised

what matters is if it can get filled before the election

as long as it isn’t it’s a boon for the democrats

I think you have this totally backwards

If it gets filled before the election it’s a boon for Biden, if it doesn’t it’s a boon for Trump

Which is why Trump will nominate someone before the election and the lame duck Republican senate will confirm him at some point depending on the exact results of the election and the mechanics involved. If Biden wins and Dems retake the senate they will confirm her (ACB most likely) in the lame duck session

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09-18-2020 , 08:42 PM

#502

Birdman10687

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Quote:

Originally Posted by HerbieGRD

democrats will likely filibuster if biden wins though

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09-18-2020 , 08:43 PM

#503

HerbieGRD

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Basically - if Trump is re-elected and republicans hold the senate then they can wait and pretend to honor process etc

But if they get to a point where they have to fill it or lose the chance they will fill it

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09-18-2020 , 08:43 PM

#504

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 58,801

Quote:

Originally Posted by Birdman10687

democrats will likely filibuster if biden wins though

They nuked the filibuster for SC appointees.

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09-18-2020 , 08:43 PM

#505

HerbieGRD

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Birdman10687

democrats will likely filibuster if biden wins though

They can break the filibuster with a majority vote on SC nominees - had to do it on Gorsuch and Kavanaugh

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09-18-2020 , 08:45 PM

#506

HerbieGRD

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Only way it doesn’t get filled is if enough defeated Republican senators actually care enough to stop it

Which given the last 4 years feels like an idealistic pipe dream although it’s not technically impossible

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09-18-2020 , 08:48 PM

#507

HerbieGRD

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You would need 4 Republican Senators and/or Pence to say no

Name me 4 who would actually stop it?

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09-18-2020 , 08:50 PM

#508

Birdman10687

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Quote:

Originally Posted by HerbieGRD

ok but in this situation it plays out the way i am describing

if the seat is open during the election it will help Biden

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09-18-2020 , 08:51 PM

#509

Booker Wolfbox

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Originally Posted by filthyvermin

trump could appoint two rapists to the supreme court

Just think if he nominates a woman.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HerbieGRD

You would need 4 Republican Senators and/or Pence to say no

Name me 4 who would actually stop it?

Murkowski and Collins have suggested they wouldn't support a pre-election confirmation. Not exactly what you're asking for, but they're possibles.

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09-18-2020 , 08:52 PM

#510

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 58,801

https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/...19229750173696

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09-18-2020 , 08:52 PM

#511

pwnsall

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More motivation to vote with seat open for Biden.

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09-18-2020 , 08:52 PM

#512

UncleDynamite

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Lisa Murkowski has announced she will not vote on scotus nominee before election. So 3 more are needed, but these 3 names will not be easy to find. Collins has pretended to consider the right thing and disappointed many times before. Romney voted for Kavanaugh. I can’t even think of another R senator that can even be seriously considered a no. But I don’t follow US politics as closely as many others in this thread do.

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09-18-2020 , 08:53 PM

#513

HerbieGRD

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Birdman10687

ok but in this situation it plays out the way i am describing

if the seat is open during the election it will help Biden

Whether having it open during the election helps Biden or Trump is a subjective question open to interpretation, but I think it helps Trump, because if it didn’t then they would confirm a new justice before the election and I don’t think they will. We will know by Election Day which scenario McConnell thinks is most helpful just based on whether a new justice is confirmed or not by Election Day

But I will be pee my pants stunned if President Biden is sworn in and this seat is still open

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09-18-2020 , 08:54 PM

#514

chim17

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If anyone really believes it won’t be filled and wants to bet I’ll take some action on that.

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09-18-2020 , 08:54 PM

#515

filthyvermin

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i'd guess biden's war chest increases more than trump's over rbg's passing

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09-18-2020 , 08:56 PM

#516

Birdman10687

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pwnsall

More motivation to vote with seat open for Biden.

yep

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09-18-2020 , 08:56 PM

#517

HerbieGRD

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Originally Posted by chim17

If anyone really believes it won’t be filled and wants to bet I’ll take some action on that.

I already claimed dibs on this action lol

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09-18-2020 , 08:57 PM

#518

Birdman10687

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Quote:

Originally Posted by HerbieGRD

Whether having it open during the election helps Biden or Trump is a subjective question open to interpretation

Maybe

but my interpretation is this is a massive boon for Biden

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09-18-2020 , 08:57 PM

#519

Birdman10687

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“won’t be filled”

before the election or the inauguration?

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09-18-2020 , 09:01 PM

#520

HerbieGRD

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Originally Posted by Birdman10687

Maybe

but my interpretation is this is a massive boon for Biden

Here’s the thing though, if the election had been held today Biden would be a prohibitive favorite

Most of Trump’s win equity is based on the race tightening or even reversing between now and Election Day. So on a very basic mathematical level it’s better for Trump than Biden simply due to the fact that “nothing changes” results in President Biden far more often than not

But on a more subjective level I think Republicans vote on “judges” more than democrats do when it comes to marginal turnout votes and swing votes, which is why I think having the seat technically open during the election helps trump

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09-18-2020 , 09:01 PM

#521

fanmail

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its gonna fill asap b/c they're psychos and have been waiting for this moment

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09-18-2020 , 09:01 PM

#522

pwnsall

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It's a tough one to quantify. I'd bet a woman getting it a pretty big favorite.

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09-18-2020 , 09:02 PM

#523

HerbieGRD

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Birdman10687

“won’t be filled”

before the election or the inauguration?

The bet I am willing to make is that I believe it will be filled before the first official day that the democrats next control either the presidency or the senate