Prediction: The GOP in 2016 will hardly resemble the GOP of the last 16 years, largely due to a rise in popularity by the libertarian wing and a decline in the religious right, pro-business, and pro-defense wings. They won't quite resemble the Libertarian Party, but won't be too far off.

with the events and transformations that are taking place and will be taking place in the next 8 years, I wouldn't even want to venture any sort of speculation about what the GOP will look like, if it should even exist



http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalra...meets-wit.html

Article from ABC about Biden meeting with Georgian president Saakashvili- remember that the entire media establishment is lying about what happened with Georgia and Russia

counterprediction: The repubs in 2016 after 4 years of Ron Paul's presidency are already swinging back towards religion, mercantilism and militarization.

Amp,

Quick first impression: I think the idea that gold production will keep up with population/production is unrealistic. If it could (or more likely we could develop a system that more mirrored actual production) that would be great. Also, to clarify, I agree that deflation is not a bad thing in and of itself. In fact, most products deflate naturally.

I had a thought just now that I am sure has been thought a million times before, but here it is before I have to play a tournament:
1. Necessary consumable (e.g. food and energy, but less so on the energy) are greatly limited in production increases. (That is, even though say farmers are more efficient both in terms of production per farmer and to a lesser extent production per acre, there learning curves are seriously restricted by biological processes. There is only so much you can squeeze out of an acre in a year).
2. Demand for items in one grows exponentially, along with people. (These two sort of result in the tradition view that economics is the dismal science; that is that population expands to the point where there is just enough food to make minimum sustenance, or it oscillates about this point).
3. Production of other goods rises both with population and (comparatively) unfettered increases in efficiency.

So where the hell was I going before I started organizing my thoughts in bullet form? I think it was somewhere along the lines of food and other constricted consumables are always going to inflate because their production rises slower that production of goods and their demand rises faster than production of goods.
edit: inflate relative to other produced goods.

Bleh, Razz tournie has started and I have to pay attention since dead cards matter a lot. Will reread the article more thoroughly and try to clean up my thoughts later.

Re: S&L: That was just another case of a financial industry getting into deep **** when they shouldn't and the government spending a ton of taxpayer dollars to bail them out (with some conflicts of interest along the way.) I don't recall all the details, but I would guess there was a pretty healthy helping of reckless money chasing in a relatively unregulated arena there, too. (I think it all started when S&L's were afforded a status change that opened up a lot of new options for them, but I don't really recall much other than the big bail out.)

I think you're both wrong

Madtown- If Libertarianism/populism is going to rise then its going to result in a 3rd party, and not a different GOP

Amp- .............................

im not actually sure what to say. I have a hard time imagining the circumstances that would lead to a Ron Paul presidency without some major alterations to the system

from what I understand McCain was pretty heavily involved in the S&L bailout.

It will exist. We're entirely too locked into a two-party system, and each party has reformed itself several times. I would be shocked if we saw the death of either party or the emergence of a legitimate third party in my lifetime, barring the implementation of run-off voting (which will never happen).

I doubt it'd be Ron Paul, he'd be pretty old by the wouldn't he? But I could definitely see someone in his mold running as soon as 2012. Whether the GOP reforms itself that quickly, and whether that hypothetical candidate won or not would heavily depend on the success or failure of Obama's first hypothetical term, obviously.

I can't see Obama getting an additional four years, not when the economy under him is going to be in the ****ter (regardless of whether he has any blame or not).

I do think there's some movement toward Libertarian ideas in this country. Whether it will be enough to either make the party prominent enough to actually win the presidency and/or large numbers of seats in Congress, or make the Republican Party turn more Libertarian, I'm pretty skeptical. But maybe.

Honestly, I think Ron Paul's worst nightmare would be to actually win the presidency. Imagine him trying to push his legislation through Congress. That'd be like having a root canal each weekday.

I don't know if there's a movement or not. Ron Paul certainly galvanized what support there is for libertarian ideas.

Didn't Ron Paul get something on the order of 3% of the vote in the Primaries?

if there is going to be a libertarian/populist type movement in this country- and I think there is and that its happening- then it absolutely has to result in a third party

because there are tons of people on the left who are seeing whats really behind the Democratic party who certainly aren't going to be voting Republican even if its for a populist type candidate

Exactly.

Amp,

I don't really base my belief that Libertarian ideas are gaining some traction just because of Paul, I've talked to a surprising number of people (maybe a dozen or so) in the last couple months who have shared with me that they, too, are starting to find some credence in those ideas. More and more people are fed up with Government getting larger and larger and spending more and more.

There's a big difference with being fed up with the government, and doing something about it, especially when the "something" is one of

- Forcing a major change in a behemoth like a modern political party
- Starting a new party and getting an acceptable level of attention for it to field a valid candidate for leadership

qft. The economy is going to define whomever wins this presidency

Prediction: In 2 years, nobody will remember all the doom & gloom that's floating around right now

Obama getting so much support speaks directly in opposition with people being fed up with larger government and more spending.

Everything burns.

-The Joker

I'd bet you on this but it would have to be in gold

strongly disagree

I think it speaks to Obama's slick image, his campaign skills, media fauning, etc

I don't disagree thats all a part of it.

I just don't think the average Joe cares about government size or spending.

Read the Sci Am article I linked above.

Media was MORE critical of Obama than McCain.

Maybe I should reprhase it to say..

The Average Joe cares more about a slick image, campaign skills, media fawning than they care about increased government size or increased spending.

Perhaps there is more to be critical of

It's a process. More people these days are fed up with it than perhaps at any point in our country's history. But you're talking a jump from maybe 1% of the voters to 3-5% ... not nearly enough to make a massive change yet. So the "change" possible right now is from Republican to Democrat, and people are jumping at that.