https://www.theguardian.com/politics...is-in-the-lead
Latest analysis from Claire Phipps
Tuesday 6 June
Monday’s Guardian/ICM poll was a flutter not a shift: Labour up one point to 34% since last week, but the Tories holding strong and stable (now they’ve awkwardly sidelined that slogan) on 45%. A Survation poll for ITV’s Good Morning Britain today has it at 42% v 40%, with the Tories down two points and Labour pepping up by three.
Another of those controversial YouGov modellings still has May short of the 326 seats she’d need for a majority: it pegs her on 305 MPs, with Corbyn garnering 268, the SNP 42 and Lib Dems 13.
So that’s clear.
My conclusions from what I read about the UK election:
1. Pro-brexit party - UKIP's collapse is the dominant feature of the swings in the polls. 18% support near the EU referendum is now less than 5%. Hence, the swing to both Labour and Tories in what appears to be 2:1 Labour's way. This appears to be a key reason for the closing in the gap.
2. How is it that Labour is not poised to take power? Contrary to what you might read elsewhere, I do not think it is a problem of Corbyn or his policies for Labour. I think that the key reason Labour will not sweep into power is a collapse in support in Scotland and to a lesser extent Wales. This process has been more than a decade in the making. Hypothetically, if you turned back the clock and added 30 of Labour's Scottish seats that the SNP has - even a socialist Corbyn would be running neck and neck with the Tories for Labour to hold the most seats in the Commons.
3. Recent election trends work on balance for the Tories. If you took a snapshot of Tory support amongst seniors (65+) it was at ~50% 20 years ago. Now, the Tories sit at 65% amongst seniors. As the most reliable voters, this is a key asset for the Tories. However, two things we ought to note about this fact. Whilst it is a strength it also illustrates how much harder it will be for the Tories to improve their election performance by appealing to this voter group given its very high starting point.
The other notable trend in UK elections has been the collapse of Labour in Scotland and a lesser extent Wales.
Taken together - this is why even with the collapse of UKIP neither Labour or the Tories appear poised to take power on Thursday. The Tories increasingly reliant upon older voters and some of the hardliner Brexiters that have abandoned UKIP have broad demographic problems of age and race. Labour appears to be increasingly an English party just like the Tories though they have less of a problem with age and ethnic diversity.
4. Turnout: So the strength of Tories is that the 'grey' vote is reliable and will turnout. This ultimately places a base under Tory support. There is one issue this campaign that has soften Tory support and that is the so-called dementia tax. This tax will disproportionately impact homeowners who, broadly support Tory more than Labour as the demographics suggest. Whilst the Tories have walked back from this policy, it is reasonable to think that this has added to uncertainty around the government and particularly May herself. With a collapse in English third parties - there appears to be two alternatives in this dynamic - a portion of those Tories stay at home or vote Labour. Hence, another reason why the Tory landslide predicted at the start has not transpired.
On the other side, Labour has the issue of getting younger voters to turn out. The open question is: were the young disappointed Remain voters dismayed or galvanized by the Brexit vote. Labour is counting on the latter and, interestingly, Corbyn's socialist policies may not have the same stigma with these voters as those that experienced 70s Britain.
Last edited by DiggertheDog; 06-06-2017 at 07:03 AM.