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Originally Posted by DiggertheDog
So - in the threads opinion - has there been any developments in the Mueller investigation that has increased the chance of a Trump impeachment that we know of?
Given that impeachment is primarily a political issue, there are a couple of routes the Mueller investigation can lead to a Trump impeachment:
1.) Trump interferes in the investigation in a way that looks indefensible. Either he leans in on the Justice Department till they shut down the investigation or he pardons people who look extremely guilty. Mueller indicting the Kush or Don Jr might prompt Trump to action and the probability of that has in my estimate increased from the start of the investigation. If Flynn has flipped, as has been reported, there are relatively few higher-ups in the Trump universe who he can implicate.
2.) Mueller issues a report in which he finds that Trump has colluded with the Russians or obstructed justice. I think what we know about Trump's part in the firing of Comey would allow the Congress to impeach right now - if they were that way inclined, which they're not - but in practice we'll have to wait for Mueller to say something about it before the issue comes to a head.
At that time the vital question is whether Democrats have the votes to impeach. As long as Republicans control Congress, Trump is safe outside of a scenario in which he becomes unpopular with the Republican base. An economic downturn might do it, but evidence that Trump committed crimes probably won't, given the post-factual nature of American politics.