at what point do you deem it safe to open up?

i've seen a lot of "if it saves even one life, it's worth it", which is completely false, because you're obviously potentially financially ruining thousands-to-millions of lives by staying locked down

do we need 0 cases before we stop wearing face masks? if not, what's the magic number? and if it's more than 0, you have a grain of sand conundrum. if its ok with 1, then 2? 3? etc.

i mean personally, idk.... im not that fussed if all humans die.

but if i were elected leader and had a responsibility to try to run human society.... we'd eventually have to sacrifice a HUGE number of people to continue society or an even huger number would die, if it came down to that. but the thing is, right now we don't know how contagious or how deadly this disease is. so it makes sense to hunker down til we get more info or are forced to start sacrificing people so society can function.

Sup DMK!

The question should essentially be - how much death are we good with? That will determine how early we go back to "normal".

Herd immunity (if possible) results in a few million US deaths most likely (based on current IFR/CFR and R0 rates). Downside is we don't know yet if its possible, how long it lasts, and what the long term consequence of not dying but becoming infected is. (Reasonable data shows concern of lung damage, heart damage, Kawasaki-like disease in children).

We can pretty well model what it looks like based on the assumptions one uses for numbers.

The thing is, we've never actually locked down so you could argue we might as well open and eat the millions of deaths. It's always been a half ass measure that slows infection, but never really deals with the problem. If we would have truly locked down for a month and implemented track and trace we'd be open by now. Since we didn't, and with our current plan, we won't get to a "safe" place until we have good therapeutics or a vaccine.

I actually am sympathetic to everyone who says just open it and up eat the deaths. Really crappy so many would die, but our country is not one that is going to be very excited about track and trace, shut down, etc. The only other real out is medical intervention, but that's likely a year or so away. So if we can't lock down, if we can't install apps to track and trace everyone, we are sort of stuck on what we can even do.

My personal view (informed from the knowledge I have from some colleagues who are researching this now) - within a month we should have answers to the hard questions (immunity, more data on long term problems), so we should keep these orders in place until we know that. Then we can make real policy around what makes the most sense. There's also some remarkable vaccine trials that are close to have real good data. I'm not good with the potential of death or long term damage so my family will be staying in for quite some time. I've already moved all the courses I teach online for the Fall, and my daughter is due in 6 weeks, and we won't leave the house much until we have answers. I recognize that's a very lucky place to be in, but it's clearly the optimal line at this point if it is possible.

It could also be one big one.

Good thing we had a very stable genius in charge to unilaterally override expert advice on how and when to do travel bans.

Shocking

The hypocrisy is overwhelming

I went to my sister in law yesterday

First time being around people in 10 weeks

8 people
We swam
Ate pizza outside.

Distanced to a point
Didn't wear masks

..

It kind of felt weird. But about 30 minutes in it felt kind of normal

if you can avoid it, i highly recommend NOT looking at the pic of the white cop killing the black guy in minnesota

it was just on my twitter feed. but seeing it has really upset me

In the midst of a pandemic that has killed more Americans than 30 9/11s thus far, this morning the President of the United States has thought it important to tweet:

• The fact that he doesn't understand the first amendment by threatening Twitter
• Complained that mail-in ballots would guarantee cheating
• Whined about OBAMAGATE in ALL CAPS
• Said we're leaving Afghanistan, but will be ready to "strike with a thunder like never before"
• Suggested that Joe Scarborough killed a girl

Thanks Trump supporters. Hope it was worth it.

Didn't he also vote by mail?

-

Also, man, the current cop kills black dude was especially hard for me to stomach. Upsetting more than most.

Yeah, but that's different because reasons.

to be fair, yesterday he said regulated normal absentee ballots are fine, if you are out of town, sick, etc but he said if we went to a mass mail in ballot there would be fraud

so he did say absentee ballots are fine

him and McAney spreading the Scarborough story is pretty ridiculous

but if im being honest, i do enjoy seeing everyone being so uptight about it

the RNC convention is probably going to be in Georgia -- I think the dem governor of North Carolina is in a very tough political spot in an election year -- but i think he is going to keep it closed and Carolina is going to lose all that money

The republicans WILL have a live convention

the dems will still have their convention in Milwaukee, a northern state with a dem governor, because -- well because it is the dem convention

Yeah, it's hilarious how the family of the dead woman is so upset about it.

Ha ha ha. Jesus ****ing Christ.

its in bad taste, and completely trolly - similar to many posts made about me itt

Dude.

What the hell.

the thing that got me about this recent white cops kill black man... i mean i always avoid though cuz they really upset me. i have a little ptsd from being abused by police myself. but you can see the look on the cop's face. they just don't think of us as people. they have 0 empathy. even more, sometimes they sadistically enjoy making people suffer. they are murderers, rapists, sadists, bullies, racists. the best of them have just been beaten down into shutting their feelings down so they can deal out viciousness without having to feel bad about it.

i mean in the pic the guy is crushing this man's neck and has no feeling of compassion at all, no concern. and i know from personal experience you will be treated like this from police for simply refusing to kiss their asses. like if you are completely innocent of any wrong doing and they question you based on false suspicion, if you refuse to be completely submissive as they abuse you, they will escalate

I agree 100%, the look in the officers eyes in the picture as he was killing a human really impacted me. He has no care. No concern. No empathy. He doesn't view the black man as a human, he does not view him as equal. To just take a life and not care about it, man it's hard to deal with. Looks like just another day on the job.

He needs to be put away for murder but lol at that happening.

You're welcome, it was/is

Some more interesting items from twitter:

* The head of the Minneapolis police union is into white supremacist organizations.

* 1/8 police who shoot somebody have shot somebody before. (Guess what % of cops have shot somebody, this is amazing).

* The rate of police killing people hasn't changed with the virus. Crime is way down.

* Police violence is contagious. Working with a violent officer increases the violence other officers use.

* There were protests. They got the full treatment:

I can't watch the video of the police. The woman in NY was chilling enough for me. Jesus Christ wtf.

Washington state has been doing mail in only ballots for over a decade.

How much fraud do you think occurs in the state?

What a shock