Quote:
Originally Posted by soah
I don't mean this as a gotcha, but I'm genuinely curious as to how strongly you still believe that Trump won't invade Venezuela in light of the administration's statements yesterday (which I don't have sitting in front of me right this second). Like what sort of betting line would you establish? 80/20 against?
Well...I think it will always be the case that "all options are on the table". I don't know what exactly from the administration you're referring to but if it is something like that then I don't give it too much credence because I think that is something that will always be said.
I still don't think you'll see the US get involved but it is hard to be as confident as before since the situation is changing obviously. With almost the entirety of Latin America (not Mexico, Uruguay, a bunch of central American nations) but most of South America recognizing Gaudio there would be some political cover.
But I think there would also be tons of backlash and that you wouldn't see the US acting unless it was something that was coordinated with Colombia and/or Brazil. But it is hard to see that happening either. 4-1 seems good. 5-1 probably better.
Last edited by Luckbox Inc; 01-25-2019 at 06:56 PM.