dustin - and its exactly why me and rt shouldnt be mayor today. because that would be our best strategy. to a lesser extent i would say the same about bravos actually.

we all know we can trust herbie after yesterday. he is the most truthworthy person in the game right now.

Thats not true at all. I don't care about winning, and after we kill You, Dmk, Mets, and Herbie, I would have zero problem dying after that. And I think Kokiri may feel the same way.

I have no problem rewarding them for switching.

im actually the most trustworthy person in the game because I have nothing to lose- when I say you'll be rewarded for switching, I mean that. When I say I won't vote for you in the final 2 if you dont switch, I mean that too. I haven't told a single lie this whole game.

i have said from the start that 10 is the danger number.

ok lets see why and actually play this out.

you guys vote me as mayor today, tonite i kill you/mets.

tmr i convince RT to join me along with the 3 non alliance members. gg to the alliance, and i look to hold a final 5 spot rather than a final 7 spot.

once its final 5 obv one of me and RT has to go, so will it be the instigator or the follower? imo i would make it to the final 4 quite easily (of course if RT led it would be him instead).

in that specific final 4 i would probably be almost certain of a final 2 spot because every single dead person would be voting against me so the other 3 would be desperate to get in to the final 2 with me.

does that really seem farfetched to you? because it plays out perfectly to me.

bravos situation is even better because he can choose between me and RT. if one of us doesnt go, the other probably will.

herbie on the other hand has had numerous situations where he could have gotten ahead, most notably last nite. he didnt, so lets trust him again. to reiterate: herbie is the most trustworthy person in the game rite now.

I've actually spent a lot of time thinking about this and I believe that any alliance member that switches today is completely killing their chances of winning the game. I can see a path to victory for any of the seven alliance members in a final seven (although I think some are harder than others). I don't see a path to victory for any "switchers" because if they switch they have to count on the remaining players in the game playing sub-optimally for them to have any shot (which I refuse to believe regardless of what Dustin says now).

All that said - if you guys feel I am the most trustworthy (because I will certainly vote off non-alliance today) then I would not object to being elected again.

Let me get this straight...

Dustin's argument is, if you switch to help him now, he will give up the game later, so you can win.

This is 100% illogical. If he didn't care about winning, why would he be trying to stay alive now? Petty revenge?

Monk - you need to explain why Herbie is more trustworthy than anyone else who has been mayor and stayed loyal.

herbie read the above post and tell me why i would possibly not betray the alliance if voted in today.

I dont consider it petty, but yeah, pretty much

zurvan - for the exact reasons i posted yesterday. yesterday herbie could have made a move. the day before that he could have made a move.

every time he has had the chance to turn on us he has let it go and followed the alliance. i still think it was bad to let him be mayor yesterday, but he didnt screw us. i trust in him completely.

Actually,

The person who might have the best chance if he switches is Bravos.

Bravos has really sucked this game. He has basically not posted anything. I can almost guarantee that when it gets down to just alliance members, Bravos dies first.

Bravos, thoughts on how you can survive within the alliance?

Eskimo: actually, you never make it to final 5. The 3 non-alliance members jump at 6 with the last remaining alliance member, and (logically) take their 3 to the final 3.

Your whole idea that "whoever betrays the alliance is guaranteed final 2" is a flawed idea, as has been shown in dozens of reality shows with a jury. People do not take someone that is hated to the final 2 regularly, because they can't trust that person not to betray them earlier. Nice in theory, talked about a lot, doesn't work in reality. If it does work, it's an emotional decision, which is really not applicable here.

Emotional mistakes in political games are nearly always caused by the pressure cooker environment of 100% exposure to the game, 24 hours a day. We have a much more limited exposure to the game here, thus reducing emotional errors, leaving only logical ones. As long as we assume that all alliance members are logical, and can clearly see the logical results of betrayal, we can be confident that they will not betray.

Dustin - you have a very poor understanding of group dynamics.

Just thought I'd point that out.

Eskimo - the problem isn't getting to the final two the problem is you winning a final two. I can't even imagine a way for you to win any final two in that scenario for the exact reason that you would be very likely to get there.

has bravos even been paying enough attention to not screw us over?

we dodged a bullet yesterday. can we please, please just stop this rotations and just elect herbie?

The best (only) opportunity to betray the alliance and still have a chance at winning the game was dmk's turn at mayor. After that, it became a losing proposition to switch.

So, by your theory, dmk is the most trustworthy member of the alliance.

heh. that part i just cant tell you at this point. sorry. =P

What makes you think I really won't die? Why do you think I care about giving, especially given that I turned down on a spot on your illustrious team?

*edit giving=winning

I'm pretty sure the only way I would vote for you in a final two after the scenario you described would be if you found an extremely attractive girl who would hook up with me and frankly that would be worth losing for

holla. lets make me mayor next 10 days

I think DMK is shady*

*note - this is not related to this game in any way

HOLLA

I refuse to believe that a player in the game will voluntarily give up a shot at winning. It's illogical and, frankly, stupid. If you aren't going to try and win, don't sign up for the game... it just [censored] it up for people who aren't self-centered [censored].

Eskimo,

http://www.callgirlsatlanta.com/

Nice Dustin

once again, its too early in the morning for you to start being a [censored] asshat

i posted yesterday, and i repeat it today, that if 2 people are prepared to switch, i will do everything in my power to make them the final 2. I believe that Val and dustin would agree here.
In that scenario they have a 50% chance of winning.

The first date I took my now wife on when we first got together was a trip to see 'Throne of Bloood', a B&W subtitled Kurosawa version of MacBeth set in medeval japan. She fell asleep, only to wake herself up with a jump and a small shout at the climax, where McBeth buys it:

Lord knows why she didn't end it there and then (something she often asks herself) but from the sound of it she'd been on a pretty cold run, and i actually compared fairly well to some of her more recent dates. The most recent two films we've been to were the bourne ultimatum and knocked up.