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October 2 Vanilla 13er October 2 Vanilla 13er

10-04-2013 , 05:53 PM
I'm still here. Watching you trying to talk yourself into stuff that you're really not sure on.

I don't blame you. If I had an idea on how to clear myself I'd do it. Still somewhat confident on all my reads.
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 05:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
im back

reddboiler, did you notice xkf said me and TL are highly likely not w/w? thoughts?
Obviously I disagree. Go reread my recent posts in the past hour that center around you. Those are my thoughts concerning you.
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReddBoiler
.
about each of his quotes

1. i didn't have much of an opinion on TL at eod 1, hence low accountability

2. as i originally responded to this post, i don't see how her having 29 posts doesn't make her no accountability and many ppl DID NOT have strong reads on her, and I still contend that they probably shouldn't have been able to.

3. the stated reads he's referring to was a list from 5 hours before EOD, and I even clarified in the post after that reads list that the bottom of my list was worse than the top, so any switching in between isn't voting contrary to anything

and we already know that well named wasn't a wolf. that was obvious to me since d1 as i've been saying over and over. it was obvious to well named that I wasn't a wolf and he's been saying it over and over. you'd think if there was any credence to soah's read here then well named might not have been the first non seer cleared player NKd, especially after leading the charge on soah.

I'll add that well named was never changing his mind on me. Maybe if you don't have any experience with my wolf game you wouldn't understand, but he knows my village game almost as good as anyone, and my wolf game isn't great. If I were a wolf, he would never hard clear me for 3 days, ever.
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReddBoiler
I think he makes a great point. If what Aksdal said eariler rings true - that Soah is a a great player and a bad d1 lynch due to his experience and skill in WW - why would anyone who is not a wolf want to lynch Soah d1? Keeping him around for his reads is too valueable to the village.
did you not read my response to the 'tinfoil' case you made yesterday? just curious
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
did you not read my response to the 'tinfoil' case you made yesterday? just curious
Yes, scroll up. I quoted it earlier and did give you some credit on at least have a decent excuse for voting Soah. I'm going back and rereading give me about ten mins if you have anymore questions.
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PlzBeALevel
Yeah soah is a wolf.

His last couple posts re: me and aksdal have been borderline trolling.
.
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PlzBeALevel
Soah/bhuber/timelady seems good.

Would like to hear from luckbox too. Also more from jay but not about boiler.
At this point it just seems obvious that its TL and PBAL.
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReddBoiler
I think he makes a great point. If what Aksdal said eariler rings true - that Soah is a a great player and a bad d1 lynch due to his experience and skill in WW - why would anyone who is not a wolf want to lynch Soah d1? Keeping him around for his reads is too valueable to the village..
read the response I gave you last night. seriously wtf. I said that this is "generally a good rule of thumb, but there are exceptions."

Quote:
Originally Posted by ReddBoiler
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
doesn't really matter what you think if the objective is to try to read TL. All that matters is what she credibly thinks, and her thinking lynching soah is bad on any d1 is super credible, whether or not that's true
Yet you chose to lynch Soah. I just cant get post Aksdal here. I'm sorry if you are a villager but I just keep getting these weird vibes from you as I reread.

You keep saying things that are contradicting to your actions.
you must just be reading that sentence wrong

"All that matters is what she thinks is credible..."
- in other words, if TL believes soah is always bad d1 lynch, then that justifies her defending soah.

"...and her thinking lynching soah is bad on d1 is super credible..."
- I believe that TimeLady believe that lynching soah is always bad on d1. (note: im not saying I necessarily believe it, I just believe TL believes it. another example, I believe that Jesus thought he was God's son, but I don't believe that Jesus was god's son)

"...whether or not that's true"
- see my explanation above. Whether or not I think that soah is always a bad lynch d1 doesn't matter when I'm trying to evaluate TL's role because all I'm concerned about is whether I think she's lying about her beliefs.





Honestly, instead of reading more into all of this, you should just go check out one of my wolf games from the database. (only caveat is i wouldnt look at the lost wolves game cus i was a lost wolf and didn't know who the wolves were so I basically just played likea villager for 2 days. But actually this game might be good to look at for d3 when well named INSTA catches me to show how well he reads me)
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReddBoiler
Yes, scroll up. I quoted it earlier and did give you some credit on at least have a decent excuse for voting Soah. I'm going back and rereading give me about ten mins if you have anymore questions.
ok, i'm getting there
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:16 PM
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1257

RB, I think this post addresses most of the questions you've had of me
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:19 PM
post 1708 should thoroughly explain why I was responding to you yelling about soah and TL defending each other on d1.

soah was in fact defending TL on a read now that we know he was a villager. I believe TL was defending soah because either:
a) she's a villager who believes we should never lynch soah d1 or
b) she's a wolf who thinks she couldn't get away with believing that soah should be lynched d1
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:19 PM
but really just read my wolf games
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
pbal
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
Aksdal talk to me about pbal
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
he's making the kinds of posts I try to make when I'm a wolf. I'm researching a bit atm. small sample size of games I'm looking at makes my read a little better
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
ya, basically although I think he's using techniques that are probably good for villaging and stuff that I tend to think about as well, it just feels a little bit off in timing and application.

i don't have you as wolfy anymore btw
Quote:
Originally Posted by PlzBeALevel
I think well named's post about me possibly being a wolf is better than aksdal's because I'm notoriously difficult to toneread but as a wolf I can struggle to generate good content. I know the two aren't mutually exclusive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
what do you mean by better?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
like more accurate?
Quote:
Originally Posted by PlzBeALevel
I think the consensus on my wolf game is that I have pretty impeccable tone but I'm not always smart/dedicated enough to match that tone with really good posts that would clear me. It's why I'm a really good turbo wolf. I'm cautioning you against making conclusions from trying to toneread me compared to past games I've played because it's generally not effective (and is not in this case again, if you're saying that you've seen stuff to back up your wolf read).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
Also luckbox your vote on me seemed kind of bad when you made it. I haven't played a ton with you but my general impression was that you tend to look at things at a higher level but reading me Wolfy for that pbal vote seems kind of sea levelly
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
I wouldn't call it time. See my last post about you
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
Time = tone
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
Xkf that pbal game was a mish mash
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReddBoiler
by the way - in Xkf's case, it seems like a genuine reaction to my list since he was also in the PTP game with me.

In PBAL's case, he seems to be jumping on any case he can.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeLady
Ok, skimmed a catchup

metsandfinsfan
PBAL
xkf
bhuber
Boiler

all villagers


Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
I asked aksdal about his pbal vote. He said:



and I wrote:



and pbal replies:



This seems a little odd to me. His reason for supposedly preferring what I wrote to what aksdal wrote doesn't seem to have anything to do with what aksdal actually said. Neither of us really mentioned tone. Aksdal certainly didn't. he was pretty vague

Also the sort of response that's a commentary/read on us instead of addressing the case being made on him seems deflective and a little bit wolfy, but I think it's the fact that the post doesn't really address what was being said that makes it actually wolfy



Ladies and gentlemen.

Our 3 wolves:

Aksdal
PBAL
TimeLady
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
TL's reads list there is more or less a wolf claim, if all the prior posts weren't

she said herself: "No one is really jumping out as inherantly wolfy this game", i.e "I don't have any actual reads"
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
agree
RB, regarding your theory that i'm protecting TL, this doesn't really look like protection imo. I'll note again that I still thought that soah was a better lynch yesterday. I was likely just wrong. See well nameds posts about being wrong not being the same as being a wolf
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:23 PM
You're wrong about me reddboiler. Can't say you've said anything that makes a lot of sense either feels like you just really want it to be true.
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:25 PM
did you just pick random posts to quote?
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
RB, regarding your theory that i'm protecting TL, this doesn't really look like protection imo. I'll note again that I still thought that soah was a better lynch yesterday. I was likely just wrong. See well nameds posts about being wrong not being the same as being a wolf
Aksdal I dont think you being wrong makes you a wolf. In fact I think you've been hedging your bets the entire game.

You've been agreeing that TL does things that are wolfy, so if she is the lynch you can look ok when she flips wolf.

But, even while you agree she does thigns that are wolfy, you still go out of your way to ensure Soah gets lynched over TL.

Its like you are playing both sides of the thing so you look good if TL gets lynched - or you keep TL alive one more round to get another mislynch.



At this point its going to be really hard to convince me otherwise but I give you my word I'll keep an open mind.

At the very least I think PBAL/TL looks really really bad right now. DO you at least agree on that?
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:27 PM
Ok Aksdal tell me this - who do you think are the 3 wolves if you had to guess all 3 right now.
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
aksdal is hard to explain, but I'll try

first the pbal vote. My initial reaction was suspicion but then I thought about it and it made sense to me and seemed liek the kind of read aksdal makes as a villager. Both the fact that it was non-obvious and that it was actually reasonable at the time give me a villager lean on him. First because I think wolf-aksdal would not make such a subtly reasonable but superficially stinky vote. I think he would look fairer but smell fouler, to quote sam gamgee. The fact that I could dig into it and follow it implies a thought process that's villagery and unfaked

that's actually 90% of the read now that I think about it :P
here's an accurate read based on my pbal vote and subsequent explanation
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReddBoiler
Ok Aksdal tell me this - who do you think are the 3 wolves if you had to guess all 3 right now.
my reads are a little wonky right now i think and i'm sure this is probably going to cause big problems but if i had to guess right now, it would be

tl
Spoiler:
bhuber
Spoiler:
xkf
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
my reads are a little wonky right now i think and i'm sure this is probably going to cause big problems but if i had to guess right now, it would be

tl
Spoiler:
bhuber
Spoiler:
xkf


If you are a villager - you dont find my pushing of you to be wolfy at all? You just think I'm a lost villager?
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:31 PM
mainly because based on today I think that you're a villager and I think that ihc is a villager. partly for how hard you're coming at me. basically i think that as a wolf, you don't have to start coming at me until tomorrow, and you likely WOULDN'T come at me until tomorrow. I can explain this more if you have questions.

pbal not being on that list is probably going to make me look bad but I'll try to explain. Gonna do it in the next post just to minimize terrible reactions to my previous post
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReddBoiler
If you are a villager - you dont find my pushing of you to be wolfy at all? You just think I'm a lost villager?
yeah. everyone knows that TL is getting lynched today so wolves are going to be much less inclined to do work. And I understand that you're POEing things and I think you're just going back and trying to retrofit a wolf read on me. It happens.
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aksdal
yeah. everyone knows that TL is getting lynched today so wolves are going to be much less inclined to do work. And I understand that you're POEing things and I think you're just going back and trying to retrofit a wolf read on me. It happens.
The thing is - I already feel like an idiot for tunneling Jay earlier. So I've been trying to hold an objective view on you while I reread. I'm honestly not trying to fit a read on you.

But as I reread you things seem incredibly fishy. Especially once I went back and saw your PBAL interactions early. Maybe those are random, innocent interactions, but they end up looking really bad to me once I already started putting the pieces of the puzzle together.


I want a TL lynch tonight. Surely we lynch PBAL tomorrow. If/when they both flip wolf, then I'll focus on you. You should not go before either of those 2 IMO.

SO, you have 2 nights to convince me
a - you are not the third and final piece to the puzzle
b - someone else fits the third piece of the puzzle better


But I'm obv leaning towards it being you right now and I think I'm making a pretty good case here. It certainly makes sense. We'll see though.
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote
10-04-2013 , 06:38 PM
so pbal (caveat: you asked for my best guess at 3 wolves right now. I could easily change my mind about pbal in the next 20 minutes. I'm sorry if you think that's wolfy but it's really just how I approach trying to figure things out. Look at all possibilities and find which one makes the most sense)

basically I think that if pbal was a wolf, he'd probably be trying harder to be villagery today and he probably would've tried harder yesterday as well. Also, we've had 2 mislynches in a row and are at ML+1 with no cleared villagers. Wolves only need 2 more mislynches. So basically if pbal is a wolf, and tl is a wolf, he's essentially leaving it up to the last wolf to carry his team to victory at f3. I think he'd at least be trying to spew ppl to help out his wolf bro. If he were to get into this situation as a villager, I think he just realizes that he pretty much has to be lynched so he'd just give his honest reads before he dies, and he'd be a lot less inclined to try to waste time trying to clear himself because he knows it won't work. There's probably a lot of paranoia in there, but I'm ok with that. Again, since my reads aren't concrete, I'm not going to let myself get carried away with something that's super far-fetched
October 2 Vanilla 13er Quote

      
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