A Nice Game of Werewolf: Seer/Vig 13er - Page 14

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10-12-2021 , 12:41 AM

#326

filthyvermin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 60,146

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc

I'm a bit more succinct.

more succinct than birdman?!?!? impossible!

Quote

10-12-2021 , 12:43 AM

#327

Creature

veteran

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 2,341

Quote:

Originally Posted by Comrade_Pupper

It really isn't a difficult concept and I will chalk up the people who are deliberately misrepresenting what I am saying to willful ignorance.

Everyone starts at the game ~rand to be a wolf (to a village this would be a 3/12 or 25% chance). The longer the game goes the more solid reads get along with other information like peeks etc as. But by the end of d1 with no lunches, vote information, or outted peeks or night actions, people's reads aren't that solid--probably only slightly better than rand.

So let's say by the end of the day villager A's change of being a wolf is 27% and villager B's chance of being a wolf is 29%. If we knew nothing else about these players of course we lunch villager B.

But if we know that villager B is very valuable as a villager later in the game and villager A isn't then we have to factor this into the outcome of lunching these players.

It is not as simple as "who is more likely to be a wolf". We have to understand how mislunching these players (given there is still a 73% and 71% chance of it being a mislunch, respectively) affects the win probability for the village.

I am not saying "I think Creature is a villager and I want to mislunch him". I am saying you have a chance to be either a wolf or a villager and that if you are a villager your mislunch is not as bad for the villager win % than if fanmail is a villager and we mislunch him. So the chance than fanmail was a wolf compared to the just you are a wolf would have to be quite disparate for me to support a fanmail lunch.

Hunt for wolves, not 'optimal' mislynches

Quote

10-12-2021 , 12:43 AM

#328

Creature

veteran

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 2,341

Also Fanmail looks fine anyway. There are other players more questionable.

Quote

10-12-2021 , 12:49 AM

#329

Creature

veteran

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 2,341

Quote:

Originally Posted by Comrade_Pupper

this is such an out of pocket assessment of Creature's werewolf game that I struggle to believe that Wiggle can be a villager

Meh still think this is villagery

Quote

10-12-2021 , 12:49 AM

#330

tessepia

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2021 Posts: 315

Quote:

Originally Posted by Creature

Also Fanmail looks fine anyway. There are other players more questionable.

such as?

Quote

10-12-2021 , 12:51 AM

#331

filthyvermin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 60,146

kawamii

not showing up is bs

Quote

10-12-2021 , 12:52 AM

#332

Creature

veteran

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 2,341

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Zeus

yah I'll King Wiggles

This is still bad-looking

Quote

10-12-2021 , 12:53 AM

#333

Creature

veteran

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 2,341

Quote:

Originally Posted by tessepia

such as?

Just pointed one

Quote

10-12-2021 , 12:56 AM

#334

Creature

veteran

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 2,341

Quote:

Originally Posted by bsball8806

wiggles/creature/DZ would be pretty funny

Quote:

Originally Posted by bsball8806

if i had to pick a villager now of everyone that's posted it's fanmail

This felt awkward?

Quote

10-12-2021 , 01:01 AM

#335

DustinG

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 31,442

Votes from post 3 to post 334
Night in 11:59:55
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
2	Doctor Zeus	Creature (18), bsball8806 (16)
2	KingWiggles	Doctor Zeus (33), Luckbox Inc (50)
1	Kawamii	filthyvermin (13)
1	filthyvermin	fanmail (30)
1	Comrade_Pupper	iraisetoomuch (14)
1	fanmail	tessepia (40)
1	Creature	Comrade_Pupper (77)
1	aaronk56	KingWiggles (23)
1	unvote	aaronk56 (9)
2	not voting	Kawamii (0), Shad_ (3)

Quote

10-12-2021 , 01:13 AM

#336

tessepia

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2021 Posts: 315

does wiggles being gone mean anything cause I felt like with how he played at SoD he'd like

actually wanna be here

Quote

10-12-2021 , 01:21 AM

#337

Luckbox Inc

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 61,110

Quote:

Originally Posted by tessepia

does wiggles being gone mean anything cause I felt like with how he played at SoD he'd like

actually wanna be here

I thought his opening was wolfy...on reread I wasn't as sure but him wofing is still very much a possibility and I wasn't sure what you found villagery about him.

Quote

10-12-2021 , 01:30 AM

#338

tessepia

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2021 Posts: 315

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc

I thought his opening was wolfy...on reread I wasn't as sure but him wofing is still very much a possibility and I wasn't sure what you found villagery about him.

not really much tbh, just that he most clearly like.. wanted to be solving

Which obv at this point isn't holding up

Quote

10-12-2021 , 01:55 AM

#339

filthyvermin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 60,146

goodnight all.

i'll def be here before eod, but probably have to leave an hour so before eod

Quote

10-12-2021 , 03:01 AM

#340

DustinG

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 31,442

Votes from post 3 to post 339
Night in 9:59:58
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
2	Doctor Zeus	Creature (18), bsball8806 (16)
2	KingWiggles	Doctor Zeus (33), Luckbox Inc (51)
1	Kawamii	filthyvermin (14)
1	filthyvermin	fanmail (30)
1	Comrade_Pupper	iraisetoomuch (14)
1	fanmail	tessepia (42)
1	Creature	Comrade_Pupper (77)
1	aaronk56	KingWiggles (23)
1	unvote	aaronk56 (9)
2	not voting	Kawamii (0), Shad_ (3)

Quote

10-12-2021 , 04:17 AM

#341

Doctor Zeus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 11,777

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc

we're looking to kill medium strength players on D1

I'm saved!

Quote

10-12-2021 , 04:19 AM

#342

Doctor Zeus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 11,777

Quote:

Originally Posted by Creature

I think Bird is town from their posts, but feels like Doctor Zeus was waiting town to bite the bait to follow up the first quote.

See, I think Creature can actually be good. This feels like quite a smart post, wrong, but smart

Quote

10-12-2021 , 04:22 AM

#343

Doctor Zeus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 11,777

Quote:

Originally Posted by Comrade_Pupper

that being said Dustin feels like a villager

Yeah. As a wolf I remember them spending a bit more time needling everyone in the thread to find holes and get 'em lunched

Quote

10-12-2021 , 04:24 AM

#344

Doctor Zeus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 11,777

Quote:

Originally Posted by Creature

This is still bad-looking

But then this is a bad post.

Quote

10-12-2021 , 04:25 AM

#345

Doctor Zeus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 11,777

Quote:

Originally Posted by tessepia

does wiggles being gone mean anything cause I felt like with how he played at SoD he'd like

actually wanna be here

Time zones!!!

Quote

10-12-2021 , 04:26 AM

#346

Doctor Zeus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 11,777

Quote:

Originally Posted by DustinG

Votes from post 3 to post 339
Night in 9:59:58
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
2	Doctor Zeus	Creature (18), bsball8806 (16)
2	KingWiggles	Doctor Zeus (33), Luckbox Inc (51)
1	Kawamii	filthyvermin (14)
1	filthyvermin	fanmail (30)
1	Comrade_Pupper	iraisetoomuch (14)
1	fanmail	tessepia (42)
1	Creature	Comrade_Pupper (77)
1	aaronk56	KingWiggles (23)
1	unvote	aaronk56 (9)
2	not voting	Kawamii (0), Shad_ (3)

TBH if your a wolf, high posting or low posting, you can kinda just let Luckbox-Birdman do their thing when wagons are this disunited and know that any votes/wagons that build up are likely to look natural.

Quote

10-12-2021 , 04:28 AM

#347

tessepia

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2021 Posts: 315

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Zeus

good post

Quote

10-12-2021 , 04:33 AM

#348

Doctor Zeus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 11,777

What you thinking so far Tess?

Which players do you think have said enough to be more than "null"?

Quote

10-12-2021 , 04:58 AM

#349

tessepia

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2021 Posts: 315

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Zeus

What you thinking so far Tess?

Which players do you think have said enough to be more than "null"?

tbh doesn't really feel like much of anything has happened so none of my town reads are that solid

I agree that it doesn't feel like wolves give a **** rly

The only person who I'd say could be giving a **** is birdman not wanting to kill fanmail but apparently that's just a thing he does. Fanmail doesn't particularly stand out to me as "wow killing this person day 1 is trolling" at all though tbh

Could just mean wolves are in the afk people and ig we're just gonna choose one of them to kill so yeah

but I still wolf read fanmail the most

I don't even remember a single Shad post but ik he posted

same thing with aaronk lmao

honestly outside of fanmail the wolfiest slanky player atm is probably wiggles cause I do agree he had some bad early posts but I gave it a pass expecting more cause of how he was approaching SoD/liking his energy which is the opposite of what happened since then

Quote

10-12-2021 , 05:01 AM

#350

DustinG

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 31,442

Votes from post 3 to post 349
Night in 7:59:58
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
2	Doctor Zeus	Creature (18), bsball8806 (16)
2	KingWiggles	Doctor Zeus (40), Luckbox Inc (51)
1	Kawamii	filthyvermin (14)
1	filthyvermin	fanmail (30)
1	Comrade_Pupper	iraisetoomuch (14)
1	fanmail	tessepia (44)
1	Creature	Comrade_Pupper (77)
1	aaronk56	KingWiggles (23)
1	unvote	aaronk56 (9)
2	not voting	Kawamii (0), Shad_ (3)

Quote

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