strategic mislunching is pupper's whole approach to D1

I think Bird is town from their posts, but feels like Doctor Zeus was waiting town to bite the bait to follow up the first quote.

Wiggles

im all out of cheap wine. i had to open an expensive bottle. wow it's delicous. taste like butter. im drunk

wiggles

Hi friends

24/24 gives me enough time to read this all again and reform reads but that won’t happen until morning

Have a hard time believing villagers found a wolf wiggles on page 1 but I mean maybe

This feels like a game where I am kept alive for not solving early and maybe become useful d4

but what reads do you have now? I have like 5 villagers fwiw.

wolves get found on page 1 every day?

I don’t know if I have that many yet
Feel pretty good about Bsball, you
Ir2m aaronk maybe v too
I want Pupper to be wolf but I am not quite there
Don’t trust dz or wiggles or creature or tess but not sure who to lunch yet
Everyone else null

You?

It happens sometimes, but it just feels a bit too easy is all

most of the people you don't trust I have as villagers and almost all of the people that you like I don't have as villagers

this is not a good omen

my villagers being: pupper, tess, dz, creature, filthy

We’ll probably meet somewhere in the middle at some point

Hmm that seems aggressive

only if the village hasn't done bad to you before that can happen....I might not be able to stop them...they're pretty reckless.

on Creature and Filthy sure but I like it....I feel pretty ok about the other three

Yeah depends if village is interested in killing wolves or not

had to read ths like 5 times to understand it lol

Votes from post 3 to post 270
Night in 13:59:58
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Votes	Lynch	Voters
3	KingWiggles	Doctor Zeus (33), Luckbox Inc (35), filthyvermin (9)
2	Doctor Zeus	Creature (11), bsball8806 (16)
1	filthyvermin	fanmail (30)
1	fanmail	tessepia (33)
1	Creature	Comrade_Pupper (48)
1	aaronk56	KingWiggles (23)
1	unvote	aaronk56 (9)
3	not voting	iraisetoomuch (13), Kawamii (0), Shad_ (3)

why would you want this?

I was going to say I don't understand how you can claim tess is a "good wolf" but then claim you have read them villager part way through day 1

but of course that takes as a premise that you actually believe the stuff you say. Once I get out of that frame of reference I do understand

It really isn't a difficult concept and I will chalk up the people who are deliberately misrepresenting what I am saying to willful ignorance.

Everyone starts at the game ~rand to be a wolf (to a village this would be a 3/12 or 25% chance). The longer the game goes the more solid reads get along with other information like peeks etc as. But by the end of d1 with no lunches, vote information, or outted peeks or night actions, people's reads aren't that solid--probably only slightly better than rand.

So let's say by the end of the day villager A's change of being a wolf is 27% and villager B's chance of being a wolf is 29%. If we knew nothing else about these players of course we lunch villager B.

But if we know that villager B is very valuable as a villager later in the game and villager A isn't then we have to factor this into the outcome of lunching these players.

It is not as simple as "who is more likely to be a wolf". We have to understand how mislunching these players (given there is still a 73% and 71% chance of it being a mislunch, respectively) affects the win probability for the village.

I am not saying "I think Creature is a villager and I want to mislunch him". I am saying you have a chance to be either a wolf or a villager and that if you are a villager your mislunch is not as bad for the villager win % than if fanmail is a villager and we mislunch him. So the chance than fanmail was a wolf compared to the just you are a wolf would have to be quite disparate for me to support a fanmail lunch.

Last sentece correction:

So the chance than fanmail is a wolf compared to the chance you are a wolf would have to be quite disparate for me to support a fanmail lunch.