clown, fwiw i stand by http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=251 wagonning two people on the principle basis that they had an interaction that might be w/w is ridiculous. if you're so sure its w/w, wagon one of them, plus someone else, and if the one turns up wolf, then wagon the other.

btw if it isnt obvious, im linking to posts that quote a previous post i cant figure out how to nest, and quoting posts that arent.

more vaya ugliness, and villager-on-vaya violence. note the sole voice arguing that vaya is a villager,


i suppose this in itself is open to exploitation, but when viewed in conjunction with

two people on my wagon have left, never to return, a third is a known wolf, the fourth is the guy in second place, who a) thinks im a villager, and b) whos wagon im arguing against. pretty odd for a wolf to argue against lynching his current best hope of survival. luckily, lines gonna show up soon and give himself away....

#270 thru #280s i continue to argue strongly against lynching vaya. and yes, im unashamedly belabouring the point. just like earlier defending OR, when im a villager, i know who is easy to get mislynched, and i do my utmost to ensure that they arent.

oh, and here comes line

that was #304. go back and read the next twenty or so posts. its really quite beautiful
from an analytical perspective, this is pretty much swiitches high point, villagery-ness (if thats a word) wise. current wagons are me, admittedly not the easiest mislynch, but a wagon he can jump on based on earlier posts without seeming too incongruous, and vaya, probably a very easy mislynch, and again, a wagon he can get on pretty easily. but instead, he joins soah and I in pouncing on line to start a new wagon on a wolf. every time i read a swiitch post and find it wolfy, i always thought back to this post, and ive never quite been able to get over it. i just dont see wolf swiitch doing this, and if he did, then frankly he probably deserves to win. also the exact timings of his posts are even better. he posts that line is wolfy, the thread would refresh to reveal soah and I agreeing, and in my case voting for him, and THEN he still casts a vote. if soah had voted two minutes earlier, swiitch would in my mind be completely clear. as it is, hes still someone ill have an incredibly hard time voting for.

players potentially cleared so far:
swiitch
clown

unknowns remaining:

luckay
ollie
nich
me (i almost slipped my name into the first category, but figured people might not be convinced of my impartiality )

if someone feels like clearing two of these four, that'd be great. or confirming/disputing the clearance of the top two.

this is after soah, swiitch, and I voted line. he must know at this point hes done something pretty bad, to attract three votes with one post, and hes probably reeling a little. given this, which is more probable - he collects himself rapidly and makes a post designed to level the remaining players if he does in fact end up dead, OR, he panics and starts slinging mud at his three villager accusers?

(http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=320)

this actually seems quite wolfy to me. contrast his "boldly predict" post at 8.42 with this response to luckay a minute later. this is probably line at his most genuine, and it could be as simple as "hey, you're a wolf too, you're meant to defend me!" further contrast that with his reply to me another few minutes later (prob go back and read the page #300 to #350 to get a better all round sense of it) http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=322 and i think the his luckay reply is definitely the odd one out.

luckay then votes line to tie him up with me, but fwiw i give luckay less credit for doing this than almost anyone else. wolf luckay knows at this point that line is caught, and the best he can do is a damage limitation exercise. granted, villager luckay probably does the same thing, although obv for different reasons, but luckay definitely doesnt get vill pts for this. its also interesting that he switches off kyro, who he has been ranting to the heavens about in virtually every post he makes, to make this vote, which i think reads better as "wolf jumping on" than "villager changing mind".

*********MOD NOTE*****************

As Luckay will be gone the whole weekend, I told him he could provide me a post/vote that I would submit. His post/vote is below.

*********MOD NOTE*****************







hfsghaskhakfhjg you guys voted no lynch on the day I'm here and are actually going to discuss and stuff during the weekend when I'm not here wowowowow

either someone wanted night early because they're a wolf and are scared of TEH LUCKAY or...yeah, its probably just ignorant village lghjklsfg


HEY YUO GUSY
LISTEN TO ME!!1
1111!1111

ONE!! ONEONEONEON!!1111


YOU GUYS NEE TO LYNCH SWIITCH I WILL REITERATE AGAIN:


1. I was not eaten
2. I am POINTING OUT that I was not eaten. This is villagery imo because if it was wolfy then I'm practically saying "hey I as a wolf gave right seer views but didn't get eaten lol I'm a wolf"

3. SWIITCH I CALLED A VILLAGER BUT I DIDN'T GET EATEN SO HE'S A WOLF


4. I was right on kyro and line so I'm a guru


[VOTE SWIITCH!!!!!!]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=326

seriously, how many wolves need to call me wolfy, vote for me, try to get me lynched, or shoot a water pistol at me, before people concede that im highly unlikely to be one too? going egotistical for a brief moment, if im a wolf, then three quarters of the wolf team is me, kyro, line. so, one person who hasnt wolfed in a long game beore, one person who hasnt played much at all lately, and one person who has been compulsive about the game for the last six months. is the latter really the person you want to bus d1?

lol i managed to crosspost with luckay when he isnt even here.

hmm actually its closer to eight months. i should really look into getting a life at some point. oh well, back to the reread!

QF a luckay baseline. of special note is that he has kyro as wolfier than line, yet hes voting the latter. and if theres anyone to whom the reason "but line is a wagon and kyro isnt" applies less, it might be luckay, who would doubtless simply redouble his efforts to get his preferred lynch on the table, not tamely join another wagon.

0 Clown -
0 Epi - Nick
0 Luckay - Swiitch
1 Nick -
0 Ollie -
0 OR -
1 Swiitch -

more of what nich would call, partially accurately, "propaganda".

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=333

the only thing certain about this post, is that line wouldnt name two wolves. sadly, ive already cleared swiitch, so i cant really use it to clear myself.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=336
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=341
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=345
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=347

i defy anyone to say that this epi/line exchange sounds like anything other than a villager going after a wolf who is getting rapidly more and more annoyed.

lol the only person defending line around this time is ZT.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=366
imagine that i posted more of line and i going at it here, because i could.

well ok, one more

around this point kyro shows up again

these wagons really are quite awesome...

kyro now has FIVE OPTIONS to choose between, four if you assume he saw the updated count where swiitch only has two votes, and even if you think im a wolf (again, vaguely egostistic argument), do you really think that given the choice between sacrificing line, and sacrificing me, he opts for the latter?

this is simply insane. kyro never thinks like this as a villager, and he never acts like this towards a fellow wolf. in a vanilla game, these are essentially absolutes. kyro cleared me d1, its just as simple as that.

this was actually tougher than i thought, d2 might come a bit later on.

oh, i should add
on the stroke of night. as a wolf, luckay loves to feign confusion with multiple wagons just before night. read just before night d1 of the thanksgiving game for a classic example.

lol i actually want to vote luckay more than nich now, tbh. two of nich/luckay/ollie wins it, i think/hope/pray.

epi, only gotta clear 3/6 since we have a mislynch left


my other point is that you guys need to figure out what wolf duos you think are most likely...ones with me and without me

then we can figure out who to lynch today

say your possibilities are:

swiitch/ollie
swiitch/luckay
swiitch/clown
swiitch/nich
nich/luckay
nich/ollie
nich/swiitch
nich/clown
luckay/ollie


well then lynching me today doesn't help as you think any of the remaining players can be a wolf with me

so go after someone other than me today...well, swiitch is in the most wagons that you have listed above, therefore he is the best lynch today

if he's a wolf, then you got 2 shots at hitting final wolf, including seeing who the wolf nks

if he's villager, then you decide amongst the non-swiitch duos left and lynch the likeliest there

let's see the scenarios:

1) i get lynched today or tomorrow - i woulda been mislynched anyway if i hadn't claimed

2) i don't get lynched - better outcome as i woulda been mislynched if no claim

3) i got nked 2 nights ago - awesome outcome; woulda happened if soah hadn't counterclaimed

4) i didn't get nked 2 nights ago after no soah claim - awesome outcome; woulda meant one of my peeks was wolf


there is no outcome that is worse than me not claiming, so no, it wasn't a dumb move

anybody auto-assuming i'm a wolf for today and waiting until i show up villa tomorrow (must lynch) before figuring out other possibilities is harming the village

i've gone over the 3 points against me, and none of them make me an 'auto-lynch'

u

u owe the village to at least consider all possibilities today, before must lynch, and then make a decision

nich, you are probably the hardest person remaining to figure out where you fit in with other people, because so much got established before you came out from under the radar.
the one key thing i need to do is reread the part of the thread where an ollie wagon got going and he showed up and defended himself, everyone else probably should too, as its his most substantive contribution.
id also like comments on whether people agree/disagree that clown and swiitch are clear. im more solid on swiitch than clown, fwiw, but it'd take a fair amount for me to vote either before any of the other three unconfirmeds.

also nich, you're right, we do only need to clear three people. i still seem to be missing your list though...

actually today might be kinda ******ed, because two of the three people im gonna choose between might well not be around.

You seem to forget drawing out our seer as a side result. I suggest you buy and read "Getting the best of it" by Sklansky.
Read "Part Six - General Gambling Concepts" subchapter "Making the best Decisions" it starts on page 278.
and as I said I won't discuss this any further because it's pointless to discuss without knowing your role for sure.

That being said, even if there is a slight chance you're a villager I cannot comfortably let you slip to the endgame. It'll just make it too easy for the wolves. Add to that that some things will be a lot clearer if you are lynched and you'll see that you have to die.

Epi, I'm close to clearing you simply for the amount of work you've put so far today in eventhough I think you're the only player that is left that could do that as a wolf.

Watching the game now, Altstadtfest after that so I may or may not be back today. But since WE is one long day it doesn't matter eventhough it kinda sucks that luckay is gone and a lot of players have posted nothing so far.