Has anyone presented a rational argument for atak being a wolf?

posting from phone

at birdman-those are my reads on each player

also I think zhaorx is best

honestly reading this, i feel we have v/v wagons here

just gut right now
evidence supports WERx over atak, but i don't like a lot of the things atak has said either.

WERx's case, with my comments in red:

I am struggling, I admit. I can't make a case that WERx is hugely likely wolf, his pursuit of because there isn't such a case. His voting is bad (and points toward wolf); his pursuit of me is bad but really just points toward moron. His whining post yesterday was wolfy, as were a couple he made the first day, but they do not an airtight case make by any means.

Important: Now WERx is certain this is bsball's village. But here's his first take on it:
Maybe I missed some change that happened since then (this was early day 1) that pushed his thinking more toward this being specifically bsball's vilage, but if so he didn't point it out. yet now he is willing to lynch "mediocre" atakdog based on nothing but the likelihood that this is specifically bsball's village.

"large assumption. Many people have said it, and I can't say it's false, but we don't know it. I'll note that really the only tow people in the game whom we think are much more likely to be drafted earlier by bsball than by the others are birdman and WERx. Frankly I think it might be shortline's village, because shortline wouldn't have been dumb enough to make either Mac or Traz seer, but I certainly can't prove that and from what I know it may well be more likely than 33% bsball's."

as i understand it seer is picked by a different captain, if you're right that shortline wouldn't pick mac or traz as seer then you're looking at traz picked the seer in this game, and it's bsballs/cdl's village and wolf game.

Votes as of post 807.
night in 0:33

#	Player	votes for
3	atakdog	WinEvryRacex
0	Birdman10687	atakdog
0	ewalsh420	zhaorx
0	KeanuReaver	zhaorx
0	Sun Tzu	WinEvryRacex
0	willd	atakdog
4	WinEvryRacex	atakdog
0	xxaceshigh77xx	WinEvryRacex
2	zhaorx	WinEvryRacex

Leaders as of post 807:
4 - WinEvryRacex
3 - atakdog
2 - zhaorx

A lot of my sense that WERx was suspicious, before the voting yesterday provided an affirmative if nondispositive case, was that he seemed to drift in his thinking, particularly about me, without incorporating any new evidence. My post above captures some of that — he went from thinking this was a bsball game, which makes sense but didn't get him very far, to thinking it was definitely bsball's village, which did have the effect of meaning (once he added in evidence that we cant' check, speciiccaly his assertion that bsball doesn't think a lot of my game) that he could push for my lynch.

Ok I'll admit I haven't actually read much of Birmdman's case on you atak and as such I haven't read your reply. Can you take a look at the post I made about something you posted earlier today and respond to that please?

Luckay said this in game 2, but there's no evidence that it's true, most people believe it's not (this was discussed after he said it and he admitted he really didn't know), and frankly I don't think it makes a lot of sense. I suppose it might be, but it would be weird, and certainly not the way I'd have run the game.

I'm not really of the opinion that drifting in a view of someone without posting any reasons isn't necessarily a wolfy thing to do because I know I do it a lot in any role. My opinions on people can change pretty drastically from day to day without being able to consciously explain why. I'm not saying that's necessarily what's going on with WER, just that it's not necessarily a super strong wolf tell.

Hold on a sec. If it's the one I think you mean, you have a point — I was making tow different pooints at once, and I think they kind of got mized up. But let me quote it.

Of note, for anyone who thinks this might be v/v tonight: I'm working my butt off now that I'm available. WERx has defiantly said he wasn't going to bother carefully reading the posts of his wolf candidate. Which of us would you rather keep around?

I agree it's not strong. It's something.

If you read birdman's case, you'll see that a whole lot of it is that I've changed my opinions — he just ognotred the fact that the situation actually did change in between.

this doesnt make sense to me since you would want to pick your seer such that he worked well within your village.... not a village that has yet to be determined

atak im not alright with rationalizing lynching a villager
i want to hear more about your case on birdman

i thought thats what i read in the signup thread, obviously it makes more sense to pick your own seer but i didn't think that was the case

try to do so in a relatively succinct manner, a summary and i'll do the leg work tomorrow

also any other people you feel are particularly wolfy. i wanna say aces is pretty close to clear due to last nights voting

I'm of the opinion that it's pretty much impossible to take apart every single one of someone's posts and find wolfy parts in them, so I tend to skip over absurd in depth analysis like that, which generally just ends up being preconceived notions being fitted to posts. I think this happens a lot regardless of the role of the person doing it though.

The fact that you've changed your opinion on stuff doesn't bother me, there are just little contradictions here and there that I find harder to explain as well as a couple of mistakes that are weird.

For the record there is 0% chance I would get behind a Birdman cfd.

oh im not cfd'ing birdman either, as i said before i think we have to get rid of either wer or atak

what are you guys gonna do once i come up villager tomorrow?

I assume this is the post willd meant:
What I neglected to make explicit is that my argument that what happened toward eod d2 suggests we AKS and I are not likely to be w/w rests on the idea that up until pretty close to the end of the day, there were three viable wagons (mine, AKS's, and XXs's). AKS thsiu had three iptions twoard the end of the day: he could vote (and make a case against) me, could vote (and presumabluy make a case aginst) XXs, or he could simply not have bothered a lot (or tried to get something else going, which would have been effectively the same thing, I think.

Two of those things make some sense if I were a wolf with him; the thing that happened didn't:

• Makinga case against, or just voting, XXs would have been sensible if we were w/w, and would have been what I advocated had I beena wolf (again, remeer there is 24 hour wlfchat). I ahte w/w violnce iearly in games, particularly where it doesn't gain a lot, and here it doesn't because there was no way to celar AKS by his voting wolf-me (he was just too low participation and perceived to be wolfy to live to endgmae) not to clear me in any way (people just don't even triust that I'm a villager no matter what I do). ACoordingy, bussing made no sense, while attempting to lynch someone whom the wolves apparently later thought might be seer, or otherwise in need of NK, made lots of sense.
• Failing that, just going low profile would have been better than risking lynching me, mostly ecause I' better at wolfing than he is but also because I wasn't, at the time, quite as much in danger of being lynched. Given the moemntum against him d1 and the likelihood he was going to duck out again (I'm basing this on his past wolf games), saving himself over me would have ought nothing except a tirade in wolfchat.

I agree on looking back on it that the post doesn't read perfectly sensibly, because I had those two things in mind and didn't make the difference explicit. The overarching theme, that I don't let wolves vote for other wolves if there's an alternative, unless there's a particular reason for it (no present here) was there, but I didn't present the whole thing as clearly as I should.

(btw, anyone who has been in wolfchat with me knows that if I'm around, I am not kind to thsoe I think are doing the wrong thing. birdman pointed out that it doesn't look like I was around at the the same tiome as AKS, and I wasn't while he was doing his case on me, but were I wolf I defeintely would have conveyed my thoughst on the amtetr to him the nigt before in emphatic fashion.)

Does that help?

It's obviously not happening today. But for future reference: his posts about me consistently take things out of context, making them out to be wolfier than they are. Some villagers, particularly those who don't think very clearly, do that, but it's more often done by wolves. To me his posts about me read very clearly like he's decided he wants me lynched and is forcing the facts into the analysis, rather than letting my posting dictate his conclusion.