Even if that is true it in no way abates Vaya throwing away what he believed as his only shot to win (by banishing DMK, which he states is his only shot to win in one of his posts) to hurt my chances. Oh well, the die is cast.

The GODS are not happy....

Nich fc
Reno fc
Well named va
WL fn


17FCBL 0 (Chuck, Reno, Nich)
16FNORD 0 (WL)
15VAYA 0 (WN, DMK)

ackbleh and chim are in fnord's heaven.
Chuck and Luckay is in FCBL's heaven
Bob is in Vaya's heaven

Anyone not voting by eod will have their vote randed.
Anyone doing this twice will be mod-hell-killed.
an (x) next to someone's name signify's a rand.

00 good, 01 no good
______________________


red numbers are total manna points before today.

letters after people's names will signify the previous day's vote.

DMK was randed to hell

weekend = 1 day, night will fall usual time on Sunday. If people get their actions in earlier, we may move forward quicker.

Two things:

• I think I have 15 manna points
• If I am mathematically eliminated after today's vote, do I get to participate in tonight's hell vote?

vaya, yes and yes

Before I say anything, I'll ask a question out of idle curiosity:

WL, WN:

If you both vote for fcbl today - which seems to be the obvious play - what do you think your chances of getting into the winning heaven are? For purposes of this exercise, you may assume that fcbl will randomly choose to send one of the two of you to heaven should he win today.

Yeah, in the sense that your refusal to toast nich guaranteed that you can't win the game. WL and WN will vote for fcbl today since, at a minimum, it guarantees each of them a 25% shot at being sent to the winning heaven. If WL and WN vote for fcbl, and nich and reno both for either me or you, then fcbl gets a 50% shot at sending someone to heaven tonight. If he wins, he sens either WL or WN to heaven, and you and I toast one of nich/reno. FCBL then goes into tomorrow with a one point manna lead and is a lock to win (since in that scenario at least one of the survivors votes for fcbl).

One possible scenario (perhaps the one the fnord was counting on) is for nich, reno, and WN to all vote for fnord today. In that instance, fnord sends one of them to heaven. It doesn't really matter who WL votes for, fcbl and I would hellify him. Fnord would go into tomorrow with either a one or two-point lead. The two remaining players could not vote for fnord, and would vote for fcbl for a chance to be sent to his heaven, since that would be their only chance to win the game. FCBL and fnord then either go to a flip, or fcbl wins outright (depending on who WL voted for today).

Anyway, the point of the above is that by voting for fnord today, WN has, at best, a 16.5% chance of being sent to the winning heaven. That is assuming that fnord would rand between those three voters (a large assumption), and that fnord would have at best a coinflip with fcbl for winner of the game after the final day's vote.

Of course I can still win vaya. If we torched nich I would have no chance to win. Let us review your night posts:

1: You said us agreeing on DMK was the only way you had any chance to win.
2: You reversed your vote to nich
3: You said it was not a blunder but an anti fnord vote.

By your own admission, you through away your chances (which were good) to spite me.


I need exactly two votes today.

Three is ok, but with only two I can get two more mortals into the winning heaven and win the game. Three will send it most likely to a last day rand.

Everyone, right now you each have a 50% shot of winning with me.

I will assume nich is voting for me, since he really has little choice at this point.

Well Named or Reno, one of you should vote for me.

WL, you should vote for Vaya.

Well Named, please do the right thing. I have been the most forthright god here, and I even advised you yesterday to do something that was in your best interest but not mine.

Either you like to spew sophistic reasoning or you are really not putting any effort into your analysis. This is just wrong beyond belief.

Alright busting out the poor man's spreadsheet on this.

That's what I call notepad biotches.

So just in case anyone is really lost on this:

If nich and one other vote for me today, and the other two vote with at least one vaya, then I will be up by one point. One person who voted for me goes to heaven, and vaya spites one person who voted for him in the game because he made his objective to make me lose.

Tomorrow there will be one person who can worship me and one who cannot.

If two people worship me and two worship vaya, then we get a situation where today's winner is randed, and tomorrow there is one person who can vote for me and one who cannot, and I will have a one point lead over the other two. Vaya would still be able to win (he has somehow even completely missed this obvious slim chance at victory in his rushed efforts to spite me).

I love how vaya claims his aims were to get the most people into a winning heaven but his actions were just the opposite. Also, I have no idea why he decided I was the devil and wanted only to spite me, but whatever. Maybe it was because I talked him into his best play the first night we had to choose hell, but he thinks I bullied him into a bad move. I really don't know.

pssst... openoffice.org

lol it's installed I'm just not very good at spreadsheets imo.

It doesn't look like I have much chance of winning at all, really. Go me.

Feel free to point out exactly how it's wrong. All game all you've been doing is claiming that you're "analyzing" and "running the numbers" but I've yet to see you post any solid analysis of how the game is likely to play out. The only thing you've done is pitch a fit when things don't go your way, and try to convince people to support you despite the fact that, in most instances, doing so was not in anyone's (other than your own) interest. How you play the game is your prerogative, but don't bitch at me because things haven't turned out how you planned.

Do you dispute the fact that, by voting for FCBL today, WL and WN each have a 25% chance to get into the winning heaven tonight?

Can you come up with a scenario where WL or WN have a greater than 25% chance to get into the winning heaven?

If you follow my plan, you have a fair shot.

Just starting out in the game, though, a random player only has a 1 in 6 shot (at best) as a mortal. (50/50 to make it to a heaven IF it goes to the last day, 1 in 3 of that god winning). I am pretty sure you have at least a 25% chance following my plan, maybe 50% depending on how things go.

Oh, and voting for me today has the added bonus that you won't be sent to hell because Vaya would never send anyone who can't vote for me tomorrow to hell. That gives you some play tomorrow if you don't go to heaven tonight.

Forget these bickering gods.

COME TO THE LIGHT!!

WORSHIP FCBL

.

I already pointed out at least one way it is wrong, YOU still have a slim chance to win, but you don't even acknowledge it. I think the worst anyone can do by voting me today in the scenarios I have laid out is 25%. Seriously, it is just iterating over all the possible votes, heavens and hells. There are only 16 ways people can vote today (everyone has 2 options, 4 voters), 12 ways hell and heaven can be distributed tonight (6 if you are only interested in who will be removed from the game) 4 ways the remaining people will be able to vote tomorrow and 2 ways heaven and hell can be made tomorrow. There are also 2 possible rand points of interest (winning gods).

That comes out to about on the order of 3k possible outcomes but a lot of those are can be pruned (e.g. no rational god would promote someone tonight who did not vote for them today).

Who are you talking to? This god doesn't even bother to personalize his message when there are only two people who can vote for him today.

It takes a little time to type up a response, which I have.

Do you dispute the fact that you believed you were giving up what you thought was your only chance to win just to hurt my chances of winning?