good thing those are ESPN rankings and not something more reliable. Please beat chim this week

lol its like reverse deja vu

damn, fred jackson already ruled out this week

looks like he might be out the rest of the season even. ****

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was supposed to be in reference to espn rankings.

uh huh

It's amazing how clutch my trade with systo was for me. Obviously foster has helped me out a ton, but if I didn't have rivers my season would be over right now.

You did still give up two guys who have been performing pretty well over the last couple weeks in MJD and Lloyd. Of course, the Schaub injury would have been a killer

fjax confirmed out for the season. Not good

I dunno

Kenny Britt was late round 1

So was Demarco Murray

Murray was rd 2.

Obviously every year there are going to be big successes but you can't assume you're going to get a murray with your late 1st rd picks.

I'd be interested to see someone do an analysis/grading of the rookie draft. I'll probably do one eventually but I don't know much about football.

I think I had a pretty great draft though with murray+torrey smith in the second round and moore in one of the late rounds. Ryan Williams being injured the whole season as my 1.05 really hurts my draft. Hopefully he can still be a factor.

I have no idea what the odds of suceeding after something like that it. Wouldn't be shocked if he never becomes a real factor but hopefully they at least give him a shot after spending an early 2nd rounder on him.

1.12 in pogball 1 has been

Cam Newton
Mike Williams
Kenny Britt

Obviously some variance there. But I would say 12th pick has much higher chance than 20%

what about 1.11?

I don't have the stats anymore but I did some research on it last year going back to like '05 rookie drafts and the failure rate of 1st rounders is somewhere in the neighborhood of 50%.

I was pretty much just stating that the top picks having a higher % and the bottom have a lower % that all averages out to ~50%.

Also it's pretty hard to look back on rookie drafts from <3 years ago because the information is so incomplete.

I forget where exactly I got the information from but I will dig it up.

So I found it a lot easier than I thought I would.

1.12 from 2009-2005
D. Heyward-Bey
Sweed, Limas
Kenny Irons
MJD
Maurice Clarett

Look at it this way. If you had those picks this year you would have:

(1) Mark Ingram
(5) Ryan Williams
(9) Roy Helu
(10) Shane Vereen
(11) Randall Cobb

In 2010 you would have had:

(1) Ryan Mathews
(5) Ben Tate
(9) Sam Bradford
(10) Golden Tate
(11) Dexter McCluster

In 2009 you would have had:

(1) Knowshon Moreno
(5) Donald Brown
(9) Jeremy Maclin
(10) Matthew Stafford
(11) Mark Sanchez

Overall I think those are pretty ugly but the jury is still out on a lot of them. Those selections were taken from our draft this year and combined with the 2010 and 2009 in pogball 1.

I feel like I have a decent draft equity model but I won't share it :P

It might be broken

lol

Rangz though.

I play ranges not single hands.
It's even worse than what you quoted because I did the nutlow trade for Donald Brown :P

That being said with only two first round picks one middle and one dead last I think Green+Newton is a very good outcome. I also like the Jernigan pick because it was based on the assumption that whoever replaces Smith will be in a good position. I ended up grabbing Victor Cruz off free waivers based on that analysis which isn't too shabby.

I hate playing against stafford this week. So annoying that anything that happens in this game hurts me in some fashion.

Maybe detroit can rush 500 yards or something

Donkey Kong Suh is such a douche.

Bad decision to bench Jones for Baldwin at the last minute

Bad decision to play starks last minute.

They said they'd play him equally