Gotta be A2, right?

You have 4 points and avoid giving your opponent any 5s. And anything outside of a 9 or a 6 on the cut gives you 4+ points.

All the other options look silly to me.

Yeah, I would say eyebooger has got it.

Surprising response thus far. Will wait before posting my thoughts.

I throw A3 here. 2355 is also worth 4 and hits most cuts as well as or better than 3355.

If I was leading by more, I probably throw 55 to get close enough to peg out in the next two hands, considering A233 is significantly better than either of the other two hands and will likely get me close to 100. Not sure where the line is.

It's A22355.

Throwing A3 would leave you with 5522.

Same reasoning, so basically we are all in agreement on what to do, once we agree on the cards we were dealt. Except for Rich, it appears. I'm looking forward to his thoughts.

Lol, I knew I’d missed something. Thought I should probably read it again, but it was on the last page and I was lazy.

So yeah, definitely A2. I suspect Rich is going to say 55, and I’m interested in the analysis.

yeah i would throw A2 as pone. i cant risk throwing one 5, forget about 2

There are not many situations in which I'm tossing 55 as pone. This is one of them.

Board position is such that I want to go out on my next deal. Keeping A223 gives me the best shot to do that. Playing defensively here is basically just postponing your loss.

The way I look at it, you are the favourite, winning either on your deal or as pone the next hand. I don't want the opponent to score a big crib, giving her the chance to go out with first count on your deal.

Are you, though? I don’t know that this is true at 83.

Ok, now I’m more convinced about throwing 55. It’s more likely to get you to a point where you’re a favourite to peg out in the next two hands.

- 2355 averages just over 8, and leaves a crib which will average just over 4, so you’re most likely to be around 93-96 after the hand. You’re a dog to average 28 points over the next two hands before opponent counts dealer hand and crib.

- A233 averages around 12, but leaves a crib which will average around 9. Likely score after this hand is around 97-101. Now we ARE a favourite to average 24 before opponent counts his next dealer hand.

Thoughts?

Based upon the data from the link above, my back of the envelope calculations come up with the following:

Each crib averages ~5 points. Each dealt hand averages 8 points. The average pegging score per deal seems to be ~3.25 for each player. If you want to give the dealer 1 more, go ahead.

By the end of your deal, you should average about 28.5 points gained. That will apply to both players. Let's call it 30 points for your opponent.

You have 111.5 and she has 110. You count first on the next deal, so you should expect to win. Don't let your opponent get a whole extra hand's worth of scoring in the 2+crib they are already getting.

If my calculations are wrong, please correct them. This does seem to be a very sensitive situation.

No doubt, there will be a lot of variance, but I think the long term best result is to throw the A2.

Eric

Agree 100%. A3 is probably a bit safer since you hold two 2s as run blockers but gives up too much in your hand potential.

Anyone play much lately?

Will be getting some games in soon, both on CribbagePro (holla if you're on there) and live. Got a hand or two I'll post later.

Not really. That's probably why I enjoy the theory/strat discussions in this thread.

Attn: Eric, et al.

Ive been playing on the site often

I've mostly been playing the cpu, going to have to change that.

You're pone, leading 75 to 59 with 55778Q

WWYD?

My app stopped working. Been too busy to diagnose.

7sQc. Sacrifice holding 4 instead of 6 to play D. I’m leading, not time to get greedy.

Any 2-3-7-8-T-J-Q-K are worth 4. 9 worth 3. 6 worth 8. 5 worth 6. Only A and 4 -are bricks.

I think you do slightly better, on average, throwing Q8. 3.91 more points vs 3.65 more points. And there are fewer 7's to help a run in the crib.

Hmm. Did not do the full EV but first blush

Lose value of 2s and 9s (4x4 +3x4)=28

Gain 6s 16 vs 12. 4x4=16
Gain 3s. 12 vs 8. 4x4=16. Total of 32.

I think everything else stays the same. You are correct sir.

I didn’t think about the extra value of the 3s. It is slightly more polar as there are now 12 worthless cut cards (A-4-9).



I don’t think the 7/8 difference matters much as 77, 78, 88 are all 2 points. Slightly better to avoid 78 so the Q8 is better?

Not giving the dealer a shot at runs in the crib is probably the important factor. The extra 0.3 points for us is a bonus.

If it’s 112-100 and I’m pone I may sacrifice the 0.3 EV to maximize the number of hands that get me at least 7 points so I only need to peg 1/2 to go out but on the back side I don’t want to yield a big hand and hope to win by pegging out as dealer on the next hand as plan B.

Take 2!