Quote:
Originally Posted by RichGangi
Welcome to the thread!
This leads me to ask: How old is everyone?
I am 36 and def on the young side of the curve in my experience. I wish more people played, it's such a great game. Will never stop trying to get people into it.
I'm 34. Learned really young with my family but we always play partners (usually 2v2v2). I'm fairly new to 1v1 cribbage really.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lattimer
How did you calculate the discards? Evenly distributed or did you apply some strategy bias?
Repeat the following:
1. Deal the dealer a 6-card hand. Consider every possible combination of discards and compute the discard that maximizes EV[Hand + Crib]. EV[Hand] is done by considering every possible cut card (46 options), and EV[Crib] is done using the tables found here:
http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm
2. Deal pone a hand, and do the same thing except maximize EV[Hand - Crib].
3. Now I have a 4-card Dealer Hand, Pone Hand, and crib. Consider each of the 40 possible cut cards, and record how many cut cards produced each score.
When I get time to process the output, I'll have a histogram for each discard: (e.g. if pone discards 78 to the crib, what is the probability that the crib scores a certain point total).
Quote:
Originally Posted by e_holle
Cool. Definitely looking forward to crib scores. Any possibility of analzing pegging scores?
Thought about this a bit more, and I wonder if I can somehow estimate the pegging value of a hand by simulating a bunch of other hands for the opponent and checking each way of playing my cards and take the best one. It's only a rough idea, but there aren't so many options and brute force might be able to give a starting place.
Of course if actual data was recorded somewhere then that'd be best, but if we are going to get distribution data then to simulate it I'd actually need to know the order in which I should play the cards.
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Probably could kill the program anytime. I've simulated over 80 million hands since last night and even have over 12,000 simulations of Pone discarding 55 to the crib (which is the least common discard by far). The issue is the tables are hard to read and really need to be represented by bar graphs (there's 91 of them for dealer discards and 91 of them for pone discards). I'm probably going to have to write a script to produce those so I might not be able to post it until tomorrow.
One interesting thing that I didn't know before, if a 5 (or two cards that sum to 5) go into the crib, the crib is guaranteed to score at least 2 points. The 5 may not score the points, but if it doesn't, then the other cards have to score at least two.