Yeah I would bid 3NT. You are practically certain to lose the HA in a slam contract, leaving you praying you don't have another loser in spades. Obviously if you're missing the SA it's an auto loss (and 4NT doesn't help because partner can have the CA instead), but even if partner shows up with something like:

Axxxx
xx
xx
Kxxx

then you will not be able to avoid a spade loser.

Obviously this also means you should double 5H, a contract which you rate to absolutely demolish.

You have 18 HCP, RHO has opened 1 which is usually at least 11 HCP even in 3rd hand, and LHO redoubles to show at least 8 HCP. That adds up to 37, so there is no way your partner can have an ace, really.
Your 2 bid in this sequence shows a massive hand (which you have) so I would guess your dad's 3 bid is just showing some willingness to continue the bidding, probably because he has some diamonds in support and a very short heart suit.

I'd just blast 5 here and give opponents the last guess as to whether they should go on to 5. I'm going to double 5, even though it might well make.

EDIT: I totally overlooked the 3NT possibility, which your dad's 3:cl: bid may indeed well be angling for. The problem with 3NT is that I don't think you'll have 9 quick tricks once the club stopper is removed.

Yeah, but they're much more likely to lead hearts, which will hand you your ninth trick.

first time ive seen this thread. i will be in boston to play in the reisinger evevt friday after thanksgiving. no dont worry i suk but its the only time you ever get to play in an all star field and have a chance to win. would love to play zips. so you know my team will have a total fo 2400 mps and we do intend to qualify for the second session again this time.

GL in the Reisinger. I played in it once on a pickup team (with a pickup partner) with about 1500 MPs -- we got pounded, but my round against Alan Sontag made it worth it times ten. (I'll tell the story some time.) So as long as you have the right attitude, you can't really lose.

We'll be in Boston [combined MPs of my partnership: ~150] Saturday (flying in Fri. eve.) through Wed morning before Thanksgiving. Playing in the open BAM, a few compact KOs, and a few ZIPs.

Alright the final hand, and the hand that bothered me the most by far

MPs

Dads Hand
Q75
AQ86
AT5
A43

My Hand
AKJT6
T
QJ
KJ762

Bidding went
Me Dad
1S 2NT
3H 4C
4N 6S
P

(yes I talked to my dad about his bidding afterward...)

LHO led a spade. I drew 3 rounds of trump and played the ace of clubs. Then I played another club which I took with the king instead of trying to finesse. My thought was

If the last 2 clubs are
1. Q x great the queen fell on my king
2. x Q I lead another club to RHO who is now endplayed
3. Qx void It didn't matter if I played the K or J. Now I have to guess what to finesse
4. void Qx I can finesse the Q, after I finesse a red suit.

So I thought playing the king was better than playing the jack. As it turned out if was option 2, and after leading another club RHO was endplayed making 6. What bothered me though is this ended up being a bottom board as everyone found slam, and most everyone made 7. I am still confident my line is good at IMPs, but is it good at MPs??

Sort of thinking out loud here...

I like your line at IMPs. At matchpoints:

1. When clubs were initially Qx xxx (with probability X), you gain a trick against the field. X of the time you gain.
2. When they were xx Qxx (probaility about 1.5X) you lose trick against the field immediately but gain it back the quarter of the time that both finesses are offside, plus the quarter or the time that only one is but you would guess wrong. So 0.75X of the time you lose
3. When they were Qxx xx, probability about 1.5X, you break about even.
4. When they were x Qxxx, probability about 2/3X, you are giving up the chance of the endplay, which would gain you a trick half the time.

It looks to me that your play loses slightly more often than it gains.

I might also consider ruffing a heart early (you can afford one high trump, btw), trying to pick up Kx on your right or avoid a guess with Kx on your left; more complicated lines involve taking more risk in clubs to preserve entries while trying to ruff out the tripleton queen of hearts, but I don't think that's best. I'm also looking for a red-suit squeeze, but again the entries are a problem.

Checking those probabilities:

(Note: I will assume the opponents play non-queens at random, which is a safe assumption against good opponents.)

Use Pascal's triangle* to work out the basic numbers:

1
1 1
1 2 1
1 3 3 1
1 4 6 4 1
1 5 10 10 5 1

32 cases; when LHO follows once and RHO twice, you've down to the bold ones. (I'm showing the cases with more cards on the left on the left side of the table.) But four of the 3=2 (long with LHO) breaks are also gone, because the queen didn't appear on your right, and one 1=4 is gone because it didn't show up on your left, so we're left with:

• 6 3=2, all with the queen on the left.
• 10 2=3, four of which have the queen on the left.
• 4 1=4, all of which have the queen on the right.

In other words my numbers were a bit off above.

1. You gain one trick in four cases of Qx xxx.
2. You lose a trick half of the time in each of the six cases of xx Qxx, say three cases.
3. In six cases of Qxx we don't much care.
4. In four cases of x Qxxx, you lose a trick half the time, say two cases.

Net loss one case of the remaining twenty (but five of the nine cases in which it matters): it is about five percent better to finesse, if you assume everyone will bid the slam. If some pairs had not, your play would be right even at matchpoints, because against them the possible overtrick is irrelevant.


* In case it isn't obvious, you generate Pascal's triangle as follows:

• Start with 1 (which actually represents the one way zero cards can break).
• On each line below that, representing one more card, put a 1 on each end; each interior number is the sum of the two above it, offsetting them diagonally:

. . . . . . . . 1 . . (0 cards)
. . . . . . .1....1 . . (1 cards)
. . . . . 1....2.....1 . . (2 cards)
. . . .1....3.....3....1 . . (3 cards)
. . 1....4....6.....4.....1 . . (4 cards)
1.....5...10...10....5.....1 . . (5 cards)

For example, on the last line each 5 comes from adding the 4 and the 1 above it, and the 10s are each the sum of 4 and 6. The result shows the number of ways the cards can be divided, and closely approximates the relative probabilities. It doesn't exactly work for the latter purpose, but it's almost as good as you can do absent other information.

Didn't hit this one.

Fab is right that puppet stayman is a good idea. After a 3S rebid, you will probably settle for 4S, though you'll wonder. 5H (RKCSxH, keycard for spades excluding hearts, seems a bit rich with three bad trumps.

After a 3H rebid, 3NT is clear.

After 3D you'd likely settle for 3NT -- a big diamond fit is unlikely.

The most interesting rebid is 3NT, denying as much as four in either major and therefore both making a diamond fit likely and casting doubt on 3NT. Over this, with a partner who remembers complex agreements, I like to play transfers to all suits (4S -->5C), so I'd try 4C, then probably 4NT (natural; alternative contracts). It will be rare that notrump makes exactly nine tricks, so this isn't as problematic as it seems. (If partner raises bids 5C over this, I try 6C, offering a choice of slams; I think I'd pass a correction to 5D.

chuckles: I have nothing to comment on that hand besides to say that I hate MPs.

Also, stop playing 299ers. You'll learn bad habits.

Well, Dad pays the fare, I leave it up to him

i agree very much.if you want to be a better bridge player always play up. as a poker comparison in the world series everbody is the same. you plat bridge why would you want to play in what is known as the guppy game. talk dad into playing up and you will not only have more fun but your results will improve becuz you will get fixed less. gl

Somewhere in the letters section of the ACBL magazine, a few years back, you can find a letter in which someone complains of overhearing a tournament director referring to the 299ers as the "baby game". Guess which director, who just happens to post on POG, said it. (BTW, it was at a dinner attended only by directors and their friends, one of whom then wrote the letter. Also BTW, many directors refer to it that way, and I've heard a heck of a lot worse.)

Seriously, urge dad to play in the main game -- you can't insist, but should at least cajole. Even there, much of the play is atrocious, but in the limited games you are affirmatively rewarded for bad play, and it's very hard to improve as you should. Plus, you're clearly good enough that it's unfair to the people who really need a limited game.

Even the national non-life master pairs, in which I once played (last time the nationals were in Boston, I believe), is embarassingly bad.

My favorite embarrassing moment from these under game was against some old senile guy. I realized I had every trick left, but the claim was kind of tricky. So to make it easier I played another 4 tricks. Then I said

"Play the king on the board, pitching the diamond and my hand is good"

"No you aren't on the board"

"Yes I am. I won the last trick with the ace"

" No you aren't, you are down 1"

"Want me to call the director?"

"No, you are down 1 but I'll give it to you. Bridge is like golf. You don't just claim you are going to make it."

I had to stop myself from bursting out in laughter at that one.

does anyone here play on bridge base online?

i have played with atakdog, chuckles, fcbl, ironyuppie, bobman, chrisv, voraciousreader, myrmidon on bbo.

Anyone care to quickly explain the difference between IMPs and MPs? I am fairly new at bridge and from what little I have gathered they both score how you played a deal compared to how others played the same deal.

In multiple places in this thread I see some people say that if it is MPs they would bid that and if it is IMPs they would go for this.

MP's you get 1 match point for every score you beat or 0.5 if you tie.

at IMP you are scored by how much you beat other scores. there is an IMP chart.

Basically getting to game/slam and making is more valuable in IMPs than MPs

Thanks.

What is your screen name there?

bobomutt

would like to get some bridge in tonight. zhaorx on bbo.