Quote:
Originally Posted by atakdog
^ I agree.
Incidentally, just because it looks like you should be in 4H, not defending 1NTX, doesn't mean it would be wrong, looking at only one of the hands at a time, to defend. You can't always diagnose the layout; North will take the certain penalty with no known fit, and south will trust his partner, and that's fine.
For another thing, correct defense will probably net 800 against 1NTX if east sits for it: heart king (ducked), heart ten overtaken by jack, probably ducked, south shifts to club ten, and the defense is pretty likely to score two spades, two hearts, two diamonds, and four clubs. South should know to shift to the club because he should realize that he probably has no entry for his hearts, and the club is the safest shift.
If declarer takes the first heart, he is going down about a million (actually 1100). If he judges correctly to hold up exactly once, then careful defense should allow him only two aces plus how ever many diamonds he's entitled to, probably three if East sat for the contract. 300 isn't 650, but you can't win 'em all.
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You probably asked the question because one of you didn't like 1NT doubled. From north's perspective, bidding is both silly and dangerous; you may have no fit, and you know your partner has a minimum for his bidding because there simply aren't enough points in the deck for anything else. And the fact that you're vulnerable doesn't mean you need to be looking for every game -- and not just because it's matchpoints, though that's one reason.
If north doubled and south pulled, that's understandable but still a mistake. He has exactly the strength he promised, and just one more heart than he will have on average for his bidding; the hearts lack internal solidity (try playing hearts when partner has two little ones; even that ten could easily set you, if an opponent has ATxx). Sometimes you have to take a risk.
At IMPs, I might consider a jump to 3NT with Chuck's hand, pulled to 4H. But it's far from clear.
You're presuming double-dummy defense but stipulating that declarer will make errors. Why is a heart lead automatic? If declarer wins the second heart (he may well have only 2)) and leads a diamond, N is end-played, leading to at least 6 tricks for declarer (1 heart, 3 diamonds, and 2 black tricks). The West hand is going to look something like Kxx Ax QJxxx AQx.
I think S shoiuld bid 2H: his offence/defence ratio is strongly tilted towards offence (6-card suit, singleton in unbid suit, no entry to long suit).
North's action over 1N is definitely of interest. Is a double here a support double? If North held Axxx Qxx x AKxxx you would wish it was. Some people play the double here is 3-card support or 18-19 balanced. If your discussion with pard hasn't gone any deeper than 'Support doubles' then you can't double here, leaving 2S and 2N as your choices. 3N here should show running clubs (Ax Qx Kx AKQTxxx)