w/r, I'm in 3rd seat. Partner opens a pre-emptive 3
, and RHO overcalls 3
Q 9 2
A
A K J T 9
K J 9 4
What's a good bid here?
I ended up bidding 5
, and LHO bids 5
. Now, it passes back to me, and I can double for 200 or 500, or I can be ballsy and try for 6
I can see us losing at least two spades off the top, if they're lead. If not, I think my partner can set up the diamonds and pitch her losing spades away. The opponents figure to have at least 10+ hearts, and even at the given vulnerability, may not do so badly in 5
X, especially if the clubs are 2-0.
I think 5
is a safe contract (3N might be too, but it might be tougher to score the overtricks there, especially since leading away from KTxx in spades is much more reasonable, and the spades may break worse than 4-4). But what do you guys think about bidding 6
instead? This is at MPs, so most everybody will be in 5
/3NT/5
X, but at 6
, the only way were down is if RHO has AK in spades, and leads them. I guess she could also lead the ace from Axxx too right, and then continue? (I'm not too sure about standard leads against suited little slams). Theres a good chance that my partner will get a heart (or trump) lead anyways, so is this a +EV play?
Also, if it helps, this is the antepenultimate deal, and we're looking at around a 61% game. The guys in first place have about 65%, and third is at 59%. Since masterpoints are pretty heavily skewed to the top, I guess I'm trying to think of this as a +EV play as far as getting MPs is concerned. Is there an equivalent to ICM for bridge tournaments?
Also, if the vulnerabilities were switched, does your bid change?
Last edited by Myrmidon7328; 08-02-2008 at 05:41 PM.