Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=250632045

Participants:

Nicholasp27
aaronk56
D1iabol1cal
derwipok
domer2
Thingyman
chuckleslovakian
StuckinARutt
e_holle & pwnsall
master3004 & iamnotawerewolf
filthyvermin & filthyfriend

Past Winners:
2011 - Swiitch
2012 - Nichp
2013 - Diabolical
2014 - domer2
2015 - domer2
2016 - Chuckles
2017 - Diabolical

Proposed rules:

-11 teams, 10 picks per team
-$325m cap on each pick
-Snake draft of the ABBABABAB variety
-Most North American box office at the end of January 2018 wins

Note: If your movie gets moved to 2019 or does not get a theatrical release, you may pick a movie that went unpicked, but it must be at least two weeks from release. For substitutions only: $325m cap if its a 1st round pick, $200m cap for a round 2 pick, $150m cap for round 3 & 4, $100m for round 5 & 6, $80m cap for round 7 & 8, and $60m cap for round 9 & 10.

Anyone new wanting to join, you can offer to team up with someone.

This draft will start tomorrow (you may start earlier if you want), I will be randing the order of drafting very shortly. You will have 6 hours to make your pick in each round, although this will be lax in the first round. You also cannot be skipped between 12am and 7am eastern time for those in USA#1, or in the middle of the night for those outside the US (thingyman euro, diabolical aussie, derwi euro, and unclear on e_holle and iamnotawerewolf). You cannot be skipped on Dec 25th. Goal is to wrap this up by the New Year, which should be doable.

Draft has been randed:



NichP has been PMed that he is up

thanks domer!

Ugh. Think Spots 3-6 are the power houses this year. Just missed out

Edit, nvm. I think later picks are favored this year.

Reporting in.

Correction to OP: end of January 2019, not 2018 for revenue

Not loving being last in rounds 2/3...gonna have to pick really well in those rounds and with first pick of round 4

I’ll pick soon

I think there are multiple locks this year but I’ll take the one least likely to flop; if this doesn’t hit 325M then that means we’re in nuclear war with NK

Avengers: Infinity War

nuclear war with nk is probably more likely than avengers not to cap

Well, this is a weird spot as I similarly believe I'm likely choosing between several locks here, but hmm...

I'll go Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. It only needs to do 50% as good as Jurassic World to cap.

Clear 1 and 2 there, no reason to make fun of choices thusfar.

sub

solo: a star wars story

PMing Ianaww now, I am pretty confident we have a similar 4/5, but we need to confer

Whee

I don't think that's coming out next year.

FYP

Still waiting to hear back. If I havent by morning I will make our pick

We take Deadpool 2: The Deadpoolening

I think picks 1-3 are where it is at. I guess pick 3 is optimal. I mean 1-3 are surefire caps. Deadpool 2 is a likely cap, but Deadpool was "merely" 363 mil. Having a sure cap is a big deal which is why the round 3 reverse was needed.

The Incredibles 2

Should crush hard

Depends how stacked the first round is. If you can pick up a couple of easy 200-250m+ movies in the last couple of picks, you're probably at an advantage.

Black Panther

Shoot I was kinda hoping for Black Panther. First "Solo" Marvel movie since Ant Man and Strange which I think it should grossly outperform given A) BP's success in Civil War, B) the push Umbrella Corp Disney will be making towards Infinity War over the next couple months and C) its uncontested release date

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald should have a solid chance at capping. The first did $234 and this one adds Johnny Depp (I imagine more permanently) and Jude Law as Dumbledore. Basically I don't think there's a Universe where this does worse than the first so I think I'm good for 275-300 at least.

Strongly disagree with this. I mean I think clearly you're the Box Office expert over me, but I really doubt having picks 1 and 22 is better than, say, 6/17, 7/16 or 8/15 for example.

Sure, 1-3 are guaranteed caps, but I think 4-8 are prob guaranteed 275-300s, so you'd have to think your pick 22 can be no more than 25-50M away from the teen picks, which sure is possible, but tougher choice imo. I suppose the reversal of round 3 giving the top of the order close rd 3/4 picks helps as well, meh.

I'm sure there's a sweet spot I thought it was more like picks 6/7 this year, even though while I have that spot I will likely mess it up