Captain America has a lower floor than BvS tho

BvS hits 325M 99% of the time
Captain America hits it less than 99% of the time (98?)

i hadn't even heard of rouge one until this chat

i think captian is more likely to hit the cap and go higher

but it's kind of hard to judge either

do we look at avengers or last captain movie or batman or superman movies?

My argument would be the reverse

Even ignoring the Avengers movies, Cap 3 as a standalone sequel is on pace to do sig better than 1 and 2 which looks to be ~325. Now if we add in the recent success of Avengers 1 and 2 and the fact that Cap 3 might as well be re-named Avengers 2.5, I think it's a lock to do 325+

BvS on the other hand isn't really tied to a powerhouse franchise like the Avengers. Yes MoS did 290M, and DK and DKR both did 400+ but I feel like a large portion of your average moviegoer will just think it's a cheesy spinoff or something.

I mean this convo is moot I think they both cap 99.8% of the time, but that's just my argument for Civil War doing better than BvS

you might want to do some research before your picks

I didn't realize it had Iron Man and Spider-Man in it

I retract my post...both are locks to cap out

Iron Man
Captain America
War Machine
Winter Soldier
Hawkeye
Black Widow
Ant Man
Spider Man
Black Panther
Scarlet Witch
Vision
Falcon
Crossbones
Baron Zemo

Like I said, Avengers 2.5

This year is absolutely stacked

It seems like multiple round 3s doing 250M+ is a high possibility

The only thing I wonder is if the market can support this many huge movies...so many movies that would be huge if thrown into another year, but can we really have so many movies hit 200M+?

Good point.

A lot of these big hitters are competing with each other too, or separated by 1 or less weeks

So, again

It has Iron Man and Spider-Man

I know you are a comic guy, but the average person hasn't heard of any of them other than Capt America and those 2 + Hawkeye only from Avengers movies and Ant Man from last year

90% of people don't know or care about the rest of that list

I get it but most of them were in Age of Ultron anyway which was a huge hit so people are going to think of this as an Avengers sequel more than a cap sequel (which itself isn't even a bad thing since Winter Soldier crushed so hard)

I will make my decision shortly.

I just want to say that I hate my spot. I'm doing research and everything points to the first 4 picks being the clear top 4 and then after that wtf knows.

Yeah, that's why I agree it'll be huge (not because of Vision or Crossbones)

And there are capping films in round 2 this year, thingy...you are fine

Nich is right, but I agree Thingy is still in a ****ty spot, in the sense that low drafters and late drafters will have somewhat easy decisions for the first few rounds

I seriously hate my life.

This will most likely just flop big time, but here we go:

Independence Day: Resurgence

thats a cap hundo p

Wow, I thought I would be looking at that as a possibility at 9. Thanks Thingy!

That's not flopping

there's no capping of picks beyond the $325m, the $150/$100 caps apply only to replacement movies.

also I think Independence Day is very close to a lock for the cap.

Won't flop Thingy

ID made $300M over 20 years ago. In what Universe does this not cap? Same studio, pretty good cast, decent release date (only competes with Finding Dory week before), Jeff Goldblum - what could go wrong?

lol master that never drops to 9

anecdotaly the trailer for captain america 3 is awesome and the trailer for batman and superman destroy a city for no reason looks terrible

The writer: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1125328/?ref_=tt_ov_wr

He's a complete unknown with no real credits to his name.

He meant 100 % not at 100M

i would have taken a couple movies over finding dory