But note that this is all effectively circa 10pm gmt yesterday.

Take a look at the wagons. GTPitch/Kokiri voters D1 are Felix(V), Forsy/Mets(V), Ivers/Donk(V), Redd/Suq(V), Well/Fank(V)

GTPitch/Kokiri voters D2 are Forsy/Mets(V), Herbie/Thingy(I'm pretty sure they are V), Ivers/Donk(V), Redd/Suq(V), Tappo/Dwetz(Peeked V),

I think this makes it very likely Pitch/Kokiri are Wolves as the 3 wolves are nearly confirmed to have been on other wagons both days. Bhuber/Timi has voted to save Pitch/Kokiri both days.

Pitch/Kokiri /
Bhuber/Timi /
Third wolf

is what I'm thinking.

I'm pretty sure these are the peeks.

Re-read of metsandfinsfan

I will take a look at Forsythio after this.

I'm in class, so this isn't extensive and I won't be quoting everything. I will just ask that people go through mets' posts themselves.

I saw on my skim that tappo and Leo are considered SHC. I hate to disagree (especially if Leo is a villager), but I'm not sure that Leo is the peek? This has both to do with the fact that peeks KruZe wolf and that he never uses unambigous wording about Leo (in fact, he expresses specifically not being sure).

To the quotes:

This is @ Leo. He says "likely" on the same team. Also, earlier that day mets was genuinely pressuring gambit as if he didn't know his role. Okay, it's horrible to say this without backing it up with quotes, I'll pull them up:

So I think these make it very much seem like mets didn't peek Leo/gambit. The "I'm not worried about him" COULD be a peek, but it's not really unambigous.

And more importantly, he leaves two other very clear peeks. So those two should be the peeks. Getting to those now:

This is clear.

This is @ KruZe. It's clear. And he doesn't take it back. It's a clever way of leaving a peek and if he's seer and did this and KruZe isn't a peek, then that's on mets and not us.

Further proof that tappo is the very likely villa peek

mets addresses bhuber as a wolf a couple of times on day 2, but this makes it clear that he didn't peek him.

Conclusion

tappokone peeked villager
KruZe peeked wolf

I personally think this is very clear. If you disagree, I'd appreciate it if you didn't freak out this time and just calmly stated why.

I think that Leo may still be a villager though... It's really impressive if he's a wolf to just outright come into the thread and ignore the KruZe thing and pretend like he's SHC. Hmm... :P

I am annoyed that gtpitch/kokiri aren't just straight up giving up, but meh...

If they're not wolves, then just lol this game.

KruZe/tmleafs peeked wolves.

If they're both wolves, or even if just one of them is a wolf pair, that should hopefully spew me and Herbie villagers since they both went at us. Although luckily it looks like me and Herbie are no longer in dire need of villager pts.

KruZe

Watch out for maj

Before I try to continue failing at laying in bed tryin to sleep I decided to check 2p2 and I see thread is open and I see mets died seer and he fake peeked me woof and I'm a villager...so either mets left all reversed peeks or simply lol mets....ok gonan try this sleep thing again

This is the only peek that Forsythio leaves the first 2 days. This is day 1 btw, so tappo/DWetzel was their first peek.

Well, if you're a villager, you need to rock it out today

Ok so we are definitely lynching Kruze today.

This explains why Mets got night killed. He peeked Kruze wolf.

Mets says he is peeking Bhuber next.


Says Pitch's posting has been worse than Iversonian's, yet he still lynched Iversonian over Pitch/Kokiri.

Calls Kruze/Leafs villagery.

Pitch/Kokiri, Kruze/Leafs, Bhuber/timi all vote to lynch Iversonian.


I believe the 3 wolves are Pitch/Kokiri, Kruze/Leafs, Bhuber/Timi.

lolwut

I've been reading Mets and Forsyth for peeks. The n0 peek seems pretty clear. Mets says this:

Which suggests that Forsyth will be leaving the peek. And then Forsyth posts this:

Which is a peek. Dwetz and I are clear.

d2 is more difficult. I'll make another post about it.

So the issue with the n1 peek is that on d2 Mets shows all kinds of TMI in his villager read on Leo/Gambit. The stuff about trusting me is also TMI, obviously. Then there's the single statement about Kruze being a peeked wolf - followed later by Mets saying that Kruze was being villagery by his standards.

Addresses Leo like a villager. Note that Leo and Thingy were guilty of the same crime on d1, yet Mets's attitude toward them is completely different. It screams TMI to me.

Addresses Gambit/Leo like villagers.

Defends them. Why isn't he worried about Leo? He should be.

Includes Leo in the village.

Reinforces the n0 peek of me, in case there was any doubt.

To Kruze.

The latter bit is in reference to making conditional lynch lists. I didn't see any conditional lynch lists from him, though.

Leo at second seems way out of place.

Both of these are about Kruze. I'm not sure if Mets would make these posts about a peek, but they don't directly contradict the earlier statement. So that's annoying.

Other considerations: It's easier to see Mets/Forsyth peeking Leo/Gambit after Leo was wrong about WN in a high profile way than peeking a random non-poster. It's also easier to believe that Leo/Gambit are villagers than Kruze/Leafs are wolves.

Basically I kind of think the peek is Leo/Gambit = villagers, but can't prove it. I'll try to hone my read on Kruze/Leafs today and decide later on them.

In the meantime, kokiri/gtpitch.

Oh yeah, everybody please post your peeks. On d2 Mets was really rather seery, so I'm not going to read too much into who didn't get killed on n2. But on n1 there must have been some options.

I have some villager points for anyone who peeked Felix or Xkf on d1.

Dwetz and I went Kruze/Leafs d1, Redd/Suq d2.

One thought I had overnight is that no one should clear Thingy if Pitch/Kokiri happen to flip wolf. If you have a villager lean on Thingy/Herbie based on their posts, you might be correct, but the way Pitch and Kokiri have related to Thingy is wolf/wolfy if anything. Thingy bussing hard on d2 makes perfect sense from a strategy point of view.

haha, the funny thing is, I suspected people would say this

for example at one point kokiri is just ridicolously overly aggressive with me, "I'm likely to say **** you if you tell me to do anything" which is just brilliant anti-spew on his part if he's a wolf

But if you look at d1, our interactions should help clear me/Herbie

actually, also my spat with gtpitch yesterday should look good for me - you think that's faked?

all this is assuming gtpitch/kokiri is even a wolf lol, but if they aren't, then we're not winning I don't think

I suggested to Herbie that we maybe shouldn't leave any fake peeks d1 since I actually felt confident that we'd be better for the village alive, and he agreed that we shouldn't leave a peek since he other than maybe bhuber didn't feel really confident about fake peeking anyone and since he believed that he'd get NK'ed often enough in this setup that it would be counterproductive if wrong (this was towards end of day 1, I had tried to leave it open who our fake peek could be for most of day 1 since I wanted to talk with him about it, but he didn't show until very late).

Towards end of day 2, he still hadn't showed, so I panicked and decided to fake peek bhuber/mason and ReddBoiler/mason both villa right at EOD, since I thought they were villas and since those peeks would make sense with what we/I had posted. And because I no longer felt confident that it was a good thing for me/Herbie to stay alive (we were receiving a lot of heat, so at that point I wanted to just attract a NK and be done with the game).

@ tappo

We need to clear 4 villas today. Well, 3, since you're peeked. And hopefully only 2 since I would very much hope / like to be amongst the 4 villagers. But I imagine that you will have to take a closer look at me - let me know if you need anything.

But I really hope that you can come to "fully" trust me today, so that we can work out a POE. I'm willing to put in the work.

Kokiri answering your request way differently than mine, at a time when you hadn't yet announced your ironclad wolf lean on him, was one of the exchanges I had in mind. The exchange with Pitch about the peeks was another, although not as strong. Pitch seemed unnaturally confrontational to me. I was also thinking about the strength and show-offiness of your case on Kokiri, coming at a time where you'd probably want to get your bus on unless the third wolf was extremely well placed.

Finally, looking at yesterday's EoD, you're seemingly not paying attention to the voting, but are focused on defending yourself instead. I'd expect a guy whose lock wolf is the lead wagon in a competitive vote to do more cheerleading in that situation.

Could you refresh my memory on the d1 stuff?

I would love to see the posts from Bhuber on day1 that made you guys go "hmmm he would be the only person we feel comfortable fake peeking"

Well, I mean, all that gtpitch/kokiri is just their wolfiness. They've apparently succeeded in associating me with them though.

Wrt EOD: I am defending myself because I sincerely felt that there was a pretty decent chance that me and Herbie were getting cfd'ed - several people had expressed wolf leans on us and gtpitch/kokiri could easily switch to us for self preservation.

And other than that, the wagons ended up how I wanted them - I preferred kokiri/gtpitch, but I mean, I had made my case and re-posted it even close to EOD.

Mostly though, for the last 5-10 minutes, it was because I was in a panic about our fake peeks, so I was frantically trying to look through my notes and re-reading the thread to make sure that my reads/fake peeks would be correct. I had hoped Herbie would show up in time, but he never did.

The d1 stuff... Well, kokiri voted me and had me as his biggest wolf lean, I defend myself from heat and kokiri replies something like "that reads like a pissed off wolf who's mad about someone reading him correctly for the wrong reasons"

I'll just quote the whole thing. You can decide for yourself.


Again, lol @ me/us if kokiri/gtpitch is a villager

I will state that it was Herbie who said this, not me.

I felt better about at least Forsy/mets and ReddBoiler/SuqAta8.

And I can't say which posts it was for him. For me, it was:

"#268 - small villa pts: "Add me to skype so we can strategize how to kill the village."
#298 - small villa pts: "this post literally oozes that you know iversonian is a villager"
#330 - small villa pts: "He's probably pissed he randed wolf.
His last few villager games were pretty on point (and he can be slanky as a wolf (disclaimer: I've read ~0 of his posts))."

Someone already said that I apparently shouldn't consider this villagery from bhuber, but I haven't played with the dude before. I would consider this villagery from any random person. It's not much, but it's more villagery than not.

But again, I don't know which posts it was for Herbie.

Lol at those three posts as examples of being villagery

Anyways, what I am gathering from this post and the one I originally quoted is that Herbie only felt good with a fake peek of Bhuber and you felt good with no one????? I see that you waited until he showed up late into the day to talk to him. At that point you had no one you felt okay with fake peeking?

Then you and Herbie discuss this and he shows you those three posts ( I assume he brought them up since he was the one talking about Bhuber, right?) and you both come to the conclusion that out of all the posts from everyone on day1 Bhuber had the ones that made you guys most comfortable with fake peeking him, if you were gonna fake peek anyone that day?

That is amazing