Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecore
I know I didn't. I thought they killed you because they thought you were acting wolfy/emo because you randed a PR and wanted to make it to d2 and because you're good and stuff. I didn't angel you because I thought you might slip through the web, sorry
no apologies necessary at all for not angeling me; i wouldn't have angeled me in your spot
and approximately ~2 percent of my posting like that was because I'd randed a PR (compare my d1 posting there to my d1 posting in Dexter)
next time i rand villager and make it to d2, though, i definitely need to remember that wolf nks in mishmashes are pretty straightforward a surprising amount of the time
HOW MISHMASH WOLF TEAMS USUALLY CHOOSE PEOPLE TO KILL N1
here's how most of the n1 nk decisions are usually made in my experience:
1) is this person generally a strong player?
2) has this person pushed one or more wolves that most of the thread thinks are villagers? (bonus if they have also cleared one or more villagers that most of the thread thinks are wolves)
3) will it be difficult to mislynch this person?
if the answer to these three questions is yes (or if two or a strong yes and one is a maybe), then the person is a top nk priority, and then you do the secondary calculus:
1) of the top nk priorities, which have seer or strong PR equity?
2) of the top nk priorities, which are least likely to be angeled?
3) of the top nk priorities, which is likely to cause the least amount of blowback onto the wolf team?
...and then you usually end up with a pool of nk targets to match to however many kills you have
all of which is to say that i think it's actually somewhat easier than people think to reverse-engineer the identity of some of the wolf team based on the n1 kills (i.e., assume as a strong starting point that the person who was killed probably got a lot of stuff right, or at least one or two really important things right (like the identity of 1+ deep cover wolves), and further assume that strong and active players who weren't killed are >rand wolf by virtue of this alone, in many circumstances), and i'm interested to put this into practice next time
(future wolves will not adjust even if they see and remember this post, because wolves are generally lazy and disorganized on n1 and tend to default to straightforward solutions)