I think just claiming Boo right out of the gate d1 is probably fine. You narrow the wolves PR hunt by a small amount but then village has a lock clear who can serve as a peeking element. I mean if you come out, then you can say you are going to do something like mimic the number 2 wagon or whoever. Maybe. Dunno exactly, but I think coming out even without pressure is probably for the best with that role.
Noodling on GF thing:
if there are 7 wolves and 19 villagers when you peek a villager, 1 GF LDO, then the prior probability that who you peeked is a villager is .95 (19/20). The prior probability a person at random is a villager is .73 (19/26). It's been too long since I have done Bayesian Inference but lets work through this.
P(A|B) = (P(B|A)*P(A))/P(B)
Where P(A) = prior probability
and P(B) is the predictive probability
It seems I need to review this more, I used to be able to do these. I am going to do some math where I have a wolf test that gives a true positive* 70% of the time, and a false positive* 15% of the time. If I run those numbers, with a prior probability of 27% chance someone is a wolf, I have ~63% chance of them being a wolf if I see this tell. If the prior probability is 5% chance of them being a wolf, I only ave a 20% chance of them being a wolf if I see this tell exhibited.
I think that is right (I cheated a little and went to an online calculator, so I am pretty sure it is right )
Anyway, the point is, when you have someone peeked villager and there is only one godfather, you need to be much more sure before you lynch them. But the prior probabilities will be changing all game. If you get to a final 5 say, with 2 wolves and 3 villager, the numbers are suddenly:
40% for anyone to be a wolf
25% for the peeked to be a wolf (3 V + 1 GF, and he is one of those)
So seeing that tell now means:
Unpeeked = 76% chance they are a wolf
Peeked = 61% chance they are a wolf
*You do this test, say posting that the person is a wolf and seeing if they respond with "seems legit". 70% of the time they are a wolf they respond that way, 15% of the time they are a villager they respond that way.
Finally, thanks to my co-mod Mexineil, in his debut performance. He handled multiple nights worth of NAs flawlessly, was kind enough to get the vote counter set up when for some reason mine wasn't recognizing multiple pages of posts on d1, and was generally fun to have around.
Thanks! I learned a bunch and had lots of fun I thought the game was very well put together with pretty much everything thought of. Was my pleasure to help out here and there.
Now to continue work on my Archer game.
Oh yeah, also:
Very well played Gad, and good effort domer/TTT/Telc to single out a few villagers. I don't think the village played THAT bad all things considered, but they definitely ran bad.
Congratulations to the following wolves (with roles indicated; roles are in the OPs if you care to read)
Vagos = Godpigeon
Gadarene = Elmyra Duff
SGJ RJ = Pesto
killer_kill = Bobby
Mortilt4mepls = Squit
JD = Ralph the Guard
and commiserations to the remaining villagers:
grant2 = Pip (the RB)
Kruze = Buttons (seer protector; got vanilla PM)
Top Tier Tom = Bill Clinton (vanilla)
well named = Phar Fgnewton (vanilla)
biggerboat = Minerva Mink (vanilla)
UAW710 = Ferdinand Magellan (vanilla)
POSTGAME IS OPEN, lol
Yea vagos and JD played great.
Rest I had them all picked off but pussy villagers were the worst in a long time.
I'm out this was so sad I wish I die n1. Wolves outed and just pushing me.
If u are a villager, remember that any game were BATM is alive day 4 is a gtd win.
Wolves out themselves to kill me, as shown in this game.
Play better suckers.
I'm still GOAT
btw there is another way of using Bayes theorem where you have your measurement tempered with the underlying distribution (mean and std), which is probably the better way to go (since then you can say things like I think he is 70% to be a wolf here), but I don't want to remember how to do that right now.
Also, if you think in terms of rand, then it is much easier (though with any of these things estimation variance is going to be really wide). Like if you think someone is twice as likely as rand to be a wolf, then it is easy to apply the underlying prior probabilities. Oh well, enough theory talk for me.
I am glad we have some sort of unspoken understanding.
I will continue to try and clear you in the future.
I had bigger polarized to a villager who was getting back into his game or a power wolf wimming it up. Given how he played as a wolf in DND and as a villager in HP6, I really did not see him as a wolf here very often.
I just start slow. I'm horribad at tone reading early. I really focus more on trying to put the game together which takes me a while. Also, I'm completely unable to read everything because I'm afk during the day. So, when I come into the thread I'm trying to sort of pick and choose people to read which keeps me from posting a lot.
This game was pretty bad - BATM completely threw me off. Everything I was trying to sort out was based on batm being a wolf.
btw, I was all ready to push RJ hard today, but oh well.
I thought, but didn't post, for sure he would have PMs dwetz an apology if he thought he dead posted and been set straight (not the only reason I thought he was lying about that, but an additional one that seemed wrong to talk about in the thread).
I was kinda mad I died, and embarrassed I posted again.
What made it real was 3 ppl tell me at same time and disko or gad making fun of me so I just left.
I was super busy at work, had to eat so I said I'll check later.
I never got a PM. Around 8 I ce to check who's getting lynched.
Saw my name over and over since the first post. I checked VC and was like wtf lol.
I very rarely lie even in ww. I claim wolf many times so u must be stupid if u think I did that to lock clear me...
I enjoy fighting and if I'm lock clear I find ways to act like a wolf and raise suspicions. That's my game in wolf or villa
I thought it wa clear I was a villager and the fact I saw I couldn't change anyone mind then I started to lolcat cuz as u saw no matter what I was getting killed.
Villa was weak and players like TTT put up a horrible performance.
Not to mention bigger was a wolf no matter what he Randed.
Oh and killer was a wolf right? I told u good as peeked. He telegraph to me he was a wolf.
Let me guess RJ was a wolf? lol.
JD was a lock clear villager and played great, very BATM goat like as a wolf