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7/7 Animaniacs V+ Game Thread 7/7 Animaniacs V+ Game Thread

07-09-2014 , 07:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
random theory: telc ignoring the whole thing with batman and grant's claim means something

what, I dunno, but something.
There was a claim ?

I have clearly skipped/skimmed over this.
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07-09-2014 , 07:12 PM
here we go TTT trying to play aids captain again

TTT why not RJ as a counterwagon to BATM?

and i like how you don't specify who Tecl should be the counterwagon of (it should obv be BATM but i bet you are hoping it is disko)
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07-09-2014 , 07:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vagos
just wanna emphasize this bit - there is no reason why BATM is a villager in here
NP and works for me. I will still vote him over disko 100% of the time
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07-09-2014 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Telcontar
There was a claim ?

I have clearly skipped/skimmed over this.
grant claimed RB who targeted the batman on n1, and there was no wolf vig shot that night

the alternative explanation, for the sake of completeness, is that there was no n1 wolf vig because it targeted cory, the unkillable role

It seems odd that you are not aware of this given it was important background information to the entire conversation about the way you pulled up cory's peek earlier, right?
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07-09-2014 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KruZe
here we go TTT trying to play aids captain again

TTT why not RJ as a counterwagon to BATM?

and i like how you don't specify who Tecl should be the counterwagon of (it should obv be BATM but i bet you are hoping it is disko)
What is a vote count

RJ is a plausible wagon as well, but Telc appears to be giving it the old howl try
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07-09-2014 , 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadarene
Telc's list for reference.

Telc, when you get back, can you talk about why you think well named looks good from Hoya?
from memory ewll named was pushing hoya. was scorning me for defending hoya and had hoya in wolf lists
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07-09-2014 , 07:15 PM
I'm opposed to an RJ lynch. telc or disko or the batman. that is all
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07-09-2014 , 07:16 PM
I wonder if disko will even return
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07-09-2014 , 07:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
grant claimed RB who targeted the batman on n1, and there was no wolf vig shot that night

the alternative explanation, for the sake of completeness, is that there was no n1 wolf vig because it targeted cory, the unkillable role

It seems odd that you are not aware of this given it was important background information to the entire conversation about the way you pulled up cory's peek earlier, right?
not only important background information but also information that was reiterated a couple of times in the course of me calling Telc a probable wolf for that sequence
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07-09-2014 , 07:17 PM
btw, if anyone is following telc's posts closely enough, he'd rather lynch me than BATM

yup
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07-09-2014 , 07:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Telcontar
from memory ewll named was pushing hoya. was scorning me for defending hoya and had hoya in wolf lists
your memory is at least partially incomplete

with respect to Hoya, well named contained multitudes

he definitely expressed the thought that Hoya was a wolf for most of d2, though
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07-09-2014 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vagos
btw, if anyone is following telc's posts closely enough, he'd rather lynch me than BATM

yup


I'm considering Telc outed at this point

Him calling me a villager because I pushed Hoya is just mindblowing levels of bertstare.gif
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07-09-2014 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
I'm opposed to an RJ lynch. telc or disko or the batman. that is all
right....

i like her reasoning for calling for me to be viged yesterday for posting 21 times when i was doin stuff irl

yet she is coming in with a solid 7 posts today
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07-09-2014 , 07:19 PM
telc
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07-09-2014 , 07:20 PM
so frustrating

batm should be a runaway wagon at this stage

i would like to believe there is a boat load of information to be gained no matter what he flips
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07-09-2014 , 07:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KruZe
it's a valid question br0sif

if someone is a peeked villager and not getting got then they are likely to be godfather
Finally at a computer, let me break this down for you in case you are a villager:

Base probability is Vagos is something like 1 in 18 or something to be the godfather. 1 in how ever many villagers were alive at the start of d2 +1.

That is your prior probability. If you are reading vagos as anything you have to temper it with this (this is bayesean statistical inference). So right away you even if vagos was being wolfy hes just not likely to be a wolf.

Now, there is only one wolf role he can be. There are a lot of wolfy players. If you end up lynching someone who flips godfather, guess what? Vagos is 100% clear. If you get to f3 or f5 with all really villagery players who have good reasons why they are likely villagers you can start to worry about why vagos is still alive. Until then doing so is just bad.

"But if vagos is clear why is he still alive? Answer me that mr smarty pants!"

Well, until the last day action, the day vig was still alive. The day angel is still alive. The role blocker is still alive. The revenge night vig is still alive.

Oh, and there are people seriously pushing him which is the most inane thing ever at this point in the game. Kruze, if you are a villager, you should be really worried about getting whacked by skippy tonight and should be doing productive stuff to minimize that risk. If you are a wolf, which I think is pretty likely at this point, carry on brother.
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07-09-2014 , 07:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KruZe
so frustrating

batm should be a runaway wagon at this stage

i would like to believe there is a boat load of information to be gained no matter what he flips
If you're wondering, he's likely to be a vanilla ____ at this point

We need to lynch wolf PRs over vanillas
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07-09-2014 , 07:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fnord_too
Finally at a computer, let me break this down for you in case you are a villager:

Base probability is Vagos is something like 1 in 18 or something to be the godfather. 1 in how ever many villagers were alive at the start of d2 +1.

That is your prior probability. If you are reading vagos as anything you have to temper it with this (this is bayesean statistical inference). So right away you even if vagos was being wolfy hes just not likely to be a wolf.

Now, there is only one wolf role he can be. There are a lot of wolfy players. If you end up lynching someone who flips godfather, guess what? Vagos is 100% clear. If you get to f3 or f5 with all really villagery players who have good reasons why they are likely villagers you can start to worry about why vagos is still alive. Until then doing so is just bad.

"But if vagos is clear why is he still alive? Answer me that mr smarty pants!"

Well, until the last day action, the day vig was still alive. The day angel is still alive. The role blocker is still alive. The revenge night vig is still alive.

Oh, and there are people seriously pushing him which is the most inane thing ever at this point in the game. Kruze, if you are a villager, you should be really worried about getting whacked by skippy tonight and should be doing productive stuff to minimize that risk. If you are a wolf, which I think is pretty likely at this point, carry on brother.
i moved on from a vagos push hours ago

my most recent list has him as green

i'm not worried about him today
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07-09-2014 , 07:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fnord_too
Finally at a computer, let me break this down for you in case you are a villager:

Base probability is Vagos is something like 1 in 18 or something to be the godfather. 1 in how ever many villagers were alive at the start of d2 +1.

That is your prior probability. If you are reading vagos as anything you have to temper it with this (this is bayesean statistical inference). So right away you even if vagos was being wolfy hes just not likely to be a wolf.

Now, there is only one wolf role he can be. There are a lot of wolfy players. If you end up lynching someone who flips godfather, guess what? Vagos is 100% clear. If you get to f3 or f5 with all really villagery players who have good reasons why they are likely villagers you can start to worry about why vagos is still alive. Until then doing so is just bad.

"But if vagos is clear why is he still alive? Answer me that mr smarty pants!"

Well, until the last day action, the day vig was still alive. The day angel is still alive. The role blocker is still alive. The revenge night vig is still alive.

Oh, and there are people seriously pushing him which is the most inane thing ever at this point in the game. Kruze, if you are a villager, you should be really worried about getting whacked by skippy tonight and should be doing productive stuff to minimize that risk. If you are a wolf, which I think is pretty likely at this point, carry on brother.
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07-09-2014 , 07:23 PM
i think batman's posting about how he's surviving everything and all that (rather than pushing people) makes him like 98% wolf. If all 3 of disko/telc/batman aren't wolves I'll be pretty sorely disappointed at this point
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07-09-2014 , 07:23 PM
so apparently the wolf mvps are the village vigs
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07-09-2014 , 07:24 PM
I'm going to go re read last night. I still think if BATM is a wolf sgt should get some good credit for d1. BATM was a hair away from getting lynched over nike there, and I think it would not have been so close if she wasn't banging the drum for him. I'll probably go re read eod 1 after last night just to make sure I am not mis remembering how that all went down.
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07-09-2014 , 07:24 PM
batm

never ever changing
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07-09-2014 , 07:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KruZe
i moved on from a vagos push hours ago

my most recent list has him as green

i'm not worried about him today
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07-09-2014 , 07:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Top Tier Tom
If you're wondering, he's likely to be a vanilla ____ at this point

We need to lynch wolf PRs over vanillas
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