7/7 Animaniacs V+ Game Thread
mods
07-10-2014
, 02:07 PM
07-10-2014
, 02:07 PM
all of this.
07-10-2014
, 02:07 PM
07-10-2014
, 02:07 PM
07-10-2014
, 02:07 PM
07-10-2014
, 02:08 PM
Quote:
***OHAI***
from earlier today:
"I'm really confident that disko is the vig. Really, really confident. And I want to shoot him. Here's why:
1) disko's posts both yesterday and today are very consistent with him being the vig. Yesterday he was extremely paranoid about being wagoned, which is consistent with not wanting to be forced to claim and wanting to stay alive to get a shot off. Today he's had almost no thread presence and made very little effort to be villagery, which is consistent with knowing that he can wait until after the dayvig to claim and probably escape lynch that way (especially if grant can corroborate him).
2) last night I gave grant a roleblock list of disko, Telc, and killer. grant trusts me. grant says he did not roleblock Telc. that means that he roleblocked disko a ton of the time.
3) you would expect the vig to shoot at disko or Telc a bunch of the time last night, since they were both consensus wolves at EOD. Telc wasn't shot by the vig. the fact that disko was also not shot by the vig weights disko to being the vig.
4) Vagos and I looked through the thread last night to vighunt, and there are reasons to discount almost everyone else from being the vig. bigger almost certainly would have shot BATM n2. KruZe would have almost certainly shot RJ last night. well named probably shoots Telc last night. UAW probably shoots disko last night. it could be Tom, but he hasn't been as vig-y as disko has.
also, the thing is that in the very worst case scenario that we shoot disko and we're wrong, we're still not in awful shape -- but if we don't shoot disko and he's the vig and grant backs him up, then all of a sudden things get very messy in terms of being able to ensure a mislynch tonight (and we won't be able to both kill and jailkeep disko during the night phase)
here are the possible outcomes:
we dayvig disko and he's the vig
Result: we win outright
we dayvig grant to prevent him from corroborating a disko vig claim
Result: we have no chance of winning outright this afternoon and have to play it out for the rest of the day and weather a vig claim from disko if he has one (which includes having RJ's counterclaim be persuasive and having people look past the fact that grant was killed when he could have provided corroboration) -- it's absolutely possible that people will decide to simply lynch outside of the claims, which will probably be killer, and then we're not in a great spot
we dayvig Tom
Result: there's a chance he's the vig, in which case we win, but if not we have to deal with the same stuff as above, with the added complication that grant is now around to back disko up in the event that disko is the vig and claims it. killing Tom also puts a little heat on me and Vagos as to why he was killed and not us.
we dayvig disko and he's not the vig
Result: This is the big one. We've just taken out the primary mislynch candidate and left the vig alive, lol us. However, even if this happens, we'll still be at 6-6 with the village with an extremely good idea of who the small number of remaining vig candidates are. We can try to get a mislynch on well named or bigger, and even if a wolf gets lynched we can still win things overnight or tomorrow as long as we don't all out ourselves in the process. At very worst, we can force a flip tonight if we can do it credibly, and Vagos and I should still have enough villa cred to not make it clear that the wolves are voting en masse...I can probably convince at least one villager to join me. That's the worst case scenario (especially because i have a ton of work to do today and would like to wrap this up ASAP).
So, yeah. I think we should day vig disko. I am willing to take the heat and the lols if I am wrong. Thoughts?"
from earlier today:
"I'm really confident that disko is the vig. Really, really confident. And I want to shoot him. Here's why:
1) disko's posts both yesterday and today are very consistent with him being the vig. Yesterday he was extremely paranoid about being wagoned, which is consistent with not wanting to be forced to claim and wanting to stay alive to get a shot off. Today he's had almost no thread presence and made very little effort to be villagery, which is consistent with knowing that he can wait until after the dayvig to claim and probably escape lynch that way (especially if grant can corroborate him).
2) last night I gave grant a roleblock list of disko, Telc, and killer. grant trusts me. grant says he did not roleblock Telc. that means that he roleblocked disko a ton of the time.
3) you would expect the vig to shoot at disko or Telc a bunch of the time last night, since they were both consensus wolves at EOD. Telc wasn't shot by the vig. the fact that disko was also not shot by the vig weights disko to being the vig.
4) Vagos and I looked through the thread last night to vighunt, and there are reasons to discount almost everyone else from being the vig. bigger almost certainly would have shot BATM n2. KruZe would have almost certainly shot RJ last night. well named probably shoots Telc last night. UAW probably shoots disko last night. it could be Tom, but he hasn't been as vig-y as disko has.
also, the thing is that in the very worst case scenario that we shoot disko and we're wrong, we're still not in awful shape -- but if we don't shoot disko and he's the vig and grant backs him up, then all of a sudden things get very messy in terms of being able to ensure a mislynch tonight (and we won't be able to both kill and jailkeep disko during the night phase)
here are the possible outcomes:
we dayvig disko and he's the vig
Result: we win outright
we dayvig grant to prevent him from corroborating a disko vig claim
Result: we have no chance of winning outright this afternoon and have to play it out for the rest of the day and weather a vig claim from disko if he has one (which includes having RJ's counterclaim be persuasive and having people look past the fact that grant was killed when he could have provided corroboration) -- it's absolutely possible that people will decide to simply lynch outside of the claims, which will probably be killer, and then we're not in a great spot
we dayvig Tom
Result: there's a chance he's the vig, in which case we win, but if not we have to deal with the same stuff as above, with the added complication that grant is now around to back disko up in the event that disko is the vig and claims it. killing Tom also puts a little heat on me and Vagos as to why he was killed and not us.
we dayvig disko and he's not the vig
Result: This is the big one. We've just taken out the primary mislynch candidate and left the vig alive, lol us. However, even if this happens, we'll still be at 6-6 with the village with an extremely good idea of who the small number of remaining vig candidates are. We can try to get a mislynch on well named or bigger, and even if a wolf gets lynched we can still win things overnight or tomorrow as long as we don't all out ourselves in the process. At very worst, we can force a flip tonight if we can do it credibly, and Vagos and I should still have enough villa cred to not make it clear that the wolves are voting en masse...I can probably convince at least one villager to join me. That's the worst case scenario (especially because i have a ton of work to do today and would like to wrap this up ASAP).
So, yeah. I think we should day vig disko. I am willing to take the heat and the lols if I am wrong. Thoughts?"
wanted to post this itt when you claimed, disko, but i restrained myself
07-10-2014
, 02:08 PM
Great. Thanks.
07-10-2014
, 02:09 PM
07-10-2014
, 02:09 PM
07-10-2014
, 02:09 PM
07-10-2014
, 02:09 PM
We're awesome!
07-10-2014
, 02:10 PM
