7/23 Vanilla 13'er - TO ATF! Game Thread - Page 29

Imagine siu wasn't seer, just faking

By killing him last night they clear sun

They'd rather pressure him to see if he claims

OR just kill the peek

Seer locks up game with 3-4 live peeks so lynching peeks is very helpful

Gotcha, this makes more sense to me.

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:03 PM

#703

Kukraprout

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 11,231

fake peeks

tmleafs1967
bhuber2010
ihcjay: none
Sun Tzu
kokiri: luckduck
DividedSky
Kukraprout: kokiri
UAW710
luckduck53: none
Nicholasp27
tylertwo: none

new theory:
the seer was obivous because almost no one bothered to leave any seer cover at all
seriously, just saying "if i'm the seer X is a villager" is better than doing nothing

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:04 PM

#704

Nicholasp27

27th level thinker

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 83,279

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmleafs1967

Huber never left seer cover this game yet unless I totally missed it, not wolfy but strange as he usually does leave cover every game.

If he does then this is wolf points

I always do myself but didn't this time because I was so late to thread and catching up...I should also get wolf points for not leaving cover given now I usually play as seer is 80% of the game to me (gives so much info) so is a priority

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:05 PM

#705

ihcjay

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 44,298

Quote:

Originally Posted by luckduck53

I don't think I'm wrong but I never want to mislynch someone.

As a wolf you would though.

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:06 PM

#706

ihcjay

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 44,298

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kukraprout

You know if you, kokiri and SIU were the only ones leaving cover and SIU was the one killed that gives kokiri some wolf points imo.

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:07 PM

#707

Nicholasp27

27th level thinker

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 83,279

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kukraprout

Kokiri would usually be the best nk because it helps if he is seer or Kukra is seer....so best ev for wolves

But this time again the obvious (if seen) peek by siu changes the math so again not helpful

I really hate leaving that kind of 100% peek...we lost so much data and the seer because of it

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:07 PM

#708

tmleafs1967

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 12,449

Quote:

Originally Posted by luckduck53

I should add that I didn't leave a peek becasue in my last two games as seer I left none d1 first time and 1 very vague one d1 second game followed by more definitive stuff d2.

I was taking you or dice to grievance thread if either of you randed seer again to complain about running to good and me running too bad!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:07 PM

#709

tylertwo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 8,254

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kukraprout

fake peeks

new theory:
the seer was obivous because almost no one bothered to leave any seer cover at all
seriously, just saying "if i'm the seer X is a villager" is better than doing nothing

Point taken, live and learn...

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:07 PM

#710

Nicholasp27

27th level thinker

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 83,279

uaw as second wagon with divided

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:09 PM

#711

luckduck53

The Situation

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 5,147

Quote:

Originally Posted by ihcjay

As a wolf you would though.

I'm not a wolf though. You're getting real defensive over one little vote on you. Its the same thing you did with ship yesterday.

Ship is voting dice but has some put some pressure in you so you call him a wolf.

I put some pressure in you? Wolf.

You need to take votes/pressure less personal. If you're villa you can be upset that I'm voting you because you know I'm wrong but don't jump to the conclusion that it means I'm a wolf.

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:13 PM

#712

Kukraprout

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 11,231

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmleafs1967

bhuber2010--another player strong enough to see a title peek

DividedSky--if divided is who I think he is (and he should be) he is also a leading candidate for seeing that peek

Kukraprout--def strong enough

UAW710-def strong enough to see what Siu did there, Plus if he's a wolf divided is also a wolf (kuka, what's your math on that?)

Nicholasp27--apparently good but hasn't played in a while so I'd be skeptical if he saw that peek.

the rest I would put in my group as prob the first time seeig a title peek so I didn't include anyone else.

it's probably a tongue in cheek question but i actually get that result:
if uaw is a wolf, my top three wolves become:
DividedSky 39%
Nicholasp27 27%
kokiri 27%

if uaw is a villager, my top three wolves become:
Nicholasp27 45%
tylertwo 41%
DividedSky 40%

i'm not sure why i have div so high in both cases, it contradicts my gut feelings a bit
nich should probably also be lower but he has not many villagery posts and he interacted with basically no one, so he is climbing up the list. i'm not sure how to take into account the specific meta he has.
and i have so many lines of input that i'm starting to have trouble understanding why i get the results i get.

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:16 PM

#713

Kukraprout

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 11,231

Quote:

Originally Posted by ihcjay

You know if you, kokiri and SIU were the only ones leaving cover and SIU was the one killed that gives kokiri some wolf points imo.

i agree
and kokiri peeking duck makes it less likely that they are v/v (because when they are v/v kokiri get NKed sometimes), and that they are w/w (because imo wolves rarely fake peek each others day 1)

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:17 PM

#714

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

This. The whole seer cover thing is cool and everything, but really the title change just ruins it.

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:21 PM

#715

tmleafs1967

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 12,449

Dividedsky

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:22 PM

#716

Nicholasp27

27th level thinker

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 83,279

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kukraprout

Based on this you need to vote me or divided today

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:24 PM

#717

Kukraprout

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 11,231

while i am at it, here are my wolf % with uaw:

DividedSky 39%
Nicholasp27 39%
UAW710 35%
kokiri 34%
tylertwo 34%
luckduck53 32%
bhuber2010 30%
tmleafs1967 28%
ihcjay 27%
Sun Tzu 1%

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:24 PM

#718

Jim Harbaugh

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 645

Votes from post 603 to post 716
Night in 06:36:46
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
4	DividedSky	tmleafs1967 (13), ihcjay (25), kokiri (9), Sun Tzu (10)
2	UAW710	Nicholasp27 (10), tylertwo (11)
1	tylertwo	Kukraprout (20)
1	ihcjay	luckduck53 (13)
3	not voting	UAW710 (0), DividedSky (0), bhuber2010 (0)

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:26 PM

#719

luckduck53

The Situation

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 5,147

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kukraprout

while i am at it, here are my wolf % with uaw:

DividedSky 39%
Nicholasp27 39%
UAW710 35%
kokiri 34%
tylertwo 34%
luckduck53 32%
bhuber2010 30%
tmleafs1967 28%
ihcjay 27%
Sun Tzu 1%

For obvious reasons shouldn't Sun be a 0% until he's not?

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:27 PM

#720

Kukraprout

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 11,231

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

Based on this you need to vote me or divided today

i'm not sure because i dont totally agree with the order i obtain at the moment (especially in your case, as i said you have a weird meta and i dont know how to take that into account with my little system)
i'm tempted to vote UAW (who became a better vote than tyler since tyler started villaging it up)

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:28 PM

#721

tmleafs1967

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 12,449

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nicholasp27

Based on this you need to vote me or divided today

I wont be voting you but divided and uaw look liek decent votes right now.

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:29 PM

#722

Nicholasp27

27th level thinker

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 83,279

Vote uaw then so we can have 2 solid wagons

We lost our main source of data but can still get good info from strong wagons

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:30 PM

#723

Kukraprout

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 11,231

Quote:

Originally Posted by luckduck53

For obvious reasons shouldn't Sun be a 0% until he's not?

i left a small possibility that the peek is wrong (not that it matters in the end, i dont think we are ever lynching him)

Quote

07-24-2013 , 01:30 PM

#724

tmleafs1967

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 12,449

Uaw usually puts more effort into his lists, But he did come late so his list looks more like a quick read near eod throwtogether.

It would be nice if he showed up at a decent time today to help us out