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07-21-2011 , 04:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HerbieGRD
One thing I would like to address a little bit is that, depending on what the actual seer ends up giving us, we may end up in a situation where we need to reevaluate people who are SHC. If this happens there are a couple of things that should be taken into account.

Depending on who is on the wolf team it's entirely possible that they might believe that Dean would flip a wolf peek trying to live one more day and lock the game.

I still don't believe the n1 kill was FPS, but if you're going to see a true FPS nightkill (one that has basically no chance of killing a seer but might serve to clear one of your teammates) then n1 is generally the time that it happens. Telco is also a good player to "clear" in this manner because I don't think of him as being a very likely n0 or n1 peek for most actual seers, and he's also not the kind of person you'd necessarily expect to get nightkilled early a lot, but he's a good enough wolf that he'd potentially be able to pull off a week and a half of being a "seer hunt cleared villager" without being so obviously wolfy that he'd have to be lynched.

Honestly if Telco wasn't SHC I think I'd lynch him today. If it comes down to looking at SHC people I'd definitely look at him first.
i am completely in line with this, if it wasn't because of the n1 kill i would instant vote telc today, he is far far away from his normal villager game.
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07-21-2011 , 04:02 AM
Herbie - two questions:

firstly, do you think I'm a strong villager
secondly, do you think sooted (who almost certainly made the early nks) thinks I'm a strong villager?

I also peeked telco n0, and it's pretty easy to find the peek.
I'd be very suprised if they wouldn't eat me n1 if they were fpsing the kill, I'd say killing ykw over me would've had to be done on tone, implying they were looking for the real seer.

also missing the seer on n3 with two wolves down is a reasonable spot to fps.
leading me to 64 as first SHC to lynch.
like really.
do you think the wolves thought dean was the seer.
I didn't.
and I don't have the wolf roster.
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07-21-2011 , 04:04 AM
of course there is possibility that they were going on how clear we were, and ykw was pretty damn clear, and I might look bad from eod1 - maybe they thought they could get me lynched?
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07-21-2011 , 04:04 AM
think seer should def come out with two of chrja/perd/milk/zomg/sun, perhaps even one and another two live. also with a wolf
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07-21-2011 , 04:05 AM
Well that's about all I've got from my middle of the night reread - now I just have to figure out whether to try to go back to sleep or do something for ~4 hours until I have to go to work

Good times
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07-21-2011 , 04:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
think seer should def come out with two of chrja/perd/milk/zomg/sun, perhaps even one and another two live. also with a wolf
I don't see any need for this at this point - just make sure your peeks are obvious. I'd also suggest trying to make sure none of your village peeks get lynched if possible, but I'd rather not make it too easy for the wolves when they seem to be having trouble finding the seer
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07-21-2011 , 04:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HerbieGRD
I don't see any need for this at this point - just make sure your peeks are obvious. I'd also suggest trying to make sure none of your village peeks get lynched if possible, but I'd rather not make it too easy for the wolves when they seem to be having trouble finding the seer
+1

everyone should softclaim
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07-21-2011 , 04:09 AM
and by that I mean something to the order of "if I'm the seer these are my living peeks..."
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07-21-2011 , 04:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Silman
Herbie - two questions:

firstly, do you think I'm a strong villager
secondly, do you think sooted (who almost certainly made the early nks) thinks I'm a strong villager?

I also peeked telco n0, and it's pretty easy to find the peek.
I'd be very suprised if they wouldn't eat me n1 if they were fpsing the kill, I'd say killing ykw over me would've had to be done on tone, implying they were looking for the real seer.

also missing the seer on n3 with two wolves down is a reasonable spot to fps.
leading me to 64 as first SHC to lynch.
like really.
do you think the wolves thought dean was the seer.
I didn't.
and I don't have the wolf roster.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Silman
of course there is possibility that they were going on how clear we were, and ykw was pretty damn clear, and I might look bad from eod1 - maybe they thought they could get me lynched?
I'm not really sure what I think about this tbh - but from what I've seen wolves have not been in any particular rush to kill "strong players".

Your point about Dean is a good one, but man if you're a wolf it's so hard to pull the trigger on a true FPS kill n3 when the real seer could potentially lock the game that night. Like hypothetically if Mets did it as a wolf and chrja was the seer (didn't he claim to have peeked mets wolf yesterday?) then if chrja peeks his partner that night it's insta-lose.

idk - I feel like even if Dean's peeks were wrong wolves almost had to think there was at least a chance he was actually the seer or they don't kill him there.
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07-21-2011 , 04:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HerbieGRD
Well that's about all I've got from my middle of the night reread - now I just have to figure out whether to try to go back to sleep or do something for ~4 hours until I have to go to work

Good times
depends how taxing work is and how long.
You will feel better on no sleep
but then be wtfpwnd at about the 30 hour mark.
if you sleep for 4 hours you will be kinda groggy
but not so wtfpwned at 30hr
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07-21-2011 , 04:18 AM
Also on the "strong player" argument - my first two peeks were pretty obviously Boj villa and Gatito wolf - both proven correct and I thought I was pretty obvious leaving them. I was mildly stunned I was still alive for day 3 tbqh.
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07-21-2011 , 04:19 AM
Silman - I already slept about 6 hours - from like 7 PM to 1 AM
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07-21-2011 , 04:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Silman
and by that I mean something to the order of "if I'm the seer these are my living peeks..."
I will not engage in such silliness
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07-21-2011 , 04:26 AM
Last thing I'm trying to decide is whether the game plays out better if we lynch Milk first or Perdi first

My thought right atm is that lynching Perdi first makes the game play out better but I could be persuaded that this isn't correct
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07-21-2011 , 04:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HerbieGRD
Also on the "strong player" argument - my first two peeks were pretty obviously Boj villa and Gatito wolf - both proven correct and I thought I was pretty obvious leaving them. I was mildly stunned I was still alive for day 3 tbqh.
I'm meaning for when they are fpsing the kill.
Obviously when they're seer hunting they go for the seeriest in their opinion.
when they *know* they're not hitting the seer they are more likely to take player strength/clearness into account.
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07-21-2011 , 04:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
I will not engage in such silliness
Dear wolves,

Sixfour is not the seer.

Love,
Silman.
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07-21-2011 , 04:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Silman
Dear wolves,

Sixfour is not the seer.

Love,
Silman.
ok then

if i am the seer, youknowwho, botjun, dean are villagers and xxsooted is a wolf
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07-21-2011 , 04:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HerbieGRD
Last thing I'm trying to decide is whether the game plays out better if we lynch Milk first or Perdi first

My thought right atm is that lynching Perdi first makes the game play out better but I could be persuaded that this isn't correct
having them as the two wagons is good in any case.
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07-21-2011 , 04:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Silman
like really.
do you think the wolves thought dean was the seer.
I didn't.
and I don't have the wolf roster.
of course you did, having missed twice already you don't fps AT ALL when we've up two lynches to one
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07-21-2011 , 04:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
of course you did, having missed twice already you don't fps AT ALL when we've up two lynches to one
dude, if I'm a wolf it was the 2nd nk that I fpsed not the third.

the third nk is the one *you* fpsed.

wolf slip, wolf slip!
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07-21-2011 , 04:49 AM
unless you're suggesting I'm w/w with mets and I fpsed nk2 and nk3?
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07-21-2011 , 04:50 AM
because you know, with a seer like sixfour, I'm not even worried about killing him
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07-21-2011 , 04:53 AM
i'm going to have to reread perd later, if people are going to push his wagon i may as well have a clue about what it is that makes people want to do that (and process of elimination isn't a good reason)
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07-21-2011 , 04:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
(and process of elimination isn't a good reason)
lol?

POE is a great reason with someone like Perdi

The fact that he isn't at all clear when so many people are makes him a fine wagon at this stage of the game imo
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07-21-2011 , 04:58 AM
I want MilkReggae to show up again before I decide for sure whether I want to lynch him or not

I'm pretty sure Perdi gets lynched before endgame regardless of what else happens so lynching him now is fine imo
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