Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcoreUFO
OMG thank you for asking me something else.
Right, so, here is the thing:
1) Slighted was puzzled by tbob on D1. Like, really puzzled. You can check his posts were he literally goes "he reads like a villager but I think he is a wolf".
2) We know slighted's peek was vix D1. It was so blatant I thought he was wolfing. So it wasn't tbob.
3) Comes D2. Who do you think Slighted is gonna peek now? Tbob, or someone else? Re-reading D1 he is very likely going to peek Tbob. It just makes sense.
4) He votes tbob off-wagon against the VR wagon as well. Says he'll come back to the thread. That's all he does on D2, right?
5) He gets NKed.
So, yeah, it can be that this wasn't a peek. But just consider everything I just said AND the fact that he was NKed. He always gets NKed when he peeks tbob = wolf and posts like that, right? How often do you think he gets killed over n0 = vix villa and then voting tbob offwagon and never returning to the thread? Not as likely, right? I'm just giving weight to that to consider Slighted as very likely peeking tbob = wolf.
(3) is where you are wrong and if you really think this would be good play on slighted's behalf, I think you should read soah's post on advanced strategy.
Seers do not try to confirm their wolf reads. If people are wolfy, they're going to get lynched; if they're uber villagey, they're never getting lynched. So you peek in the middle: people who are likely to be live peeks when you claim.
vixticator is a decent choice for n0. He's got a weird meta that makes him hard to read, but he often goes deep. He went deep in the last game he played, yet people still thought he might be a wolf. That's a decent peek.
Heropeeking a wolf lean is suboptimal. So you're basically having to add into your thinking 3a/ slighted is a bad seer.
Also, the thing for me is that he didn't change his language. He more or less repeated himself. This doesn't imply new information to me.
Just to pass the time, why not read Tbob with a fresh eye? Assume you didn't see that Slighted post. Now ask yourself what his role is. If you still think wolf or even meh on balance, sure, this is enough to tip it over and lynch him. If you think nah, he's a villager, then I think it's fine to go with that, and allow more information in the next day or two to firm up your reads on everyone, not just him.