Hi derm.

because when he shows up i want to see how he reacts to having votes

sigh

do you understand that he might not show up before night DUE TO THE NATURE OF THIS GAME?

yes, that's marginally exploitable by the wolves, but it still doesn't mean voting for 0 posters and then leaving the thread for the Pub and WW Court is an awesome idea

like, seriously, Anarchist

do you understand that it could be night in half an hour?

yes or no?

I have to do some work now. I'm happy with my vote. well named is also a fine wagon.

I was about to make a dumb light read just now

but I caught myself

Despite my ballsy posting in the signup thread about voting early, I am kind of scared to vote with the possibly impending nightfall looming and only about 70 posts.

so a long time ago elliot played a wolf game against me where he did nothing but push me all game and tunnel me and I cleared him for it because it was what he did as a villager

then last game willi tunneled me and I cleared him for it (among other things) because he's done it a lot as a villager

I have trouble distinguishing between villagers trying to lynch me and wolves doing so, but given the recent meta where it's so easy to say things like gad's "I'm never going to be opposed to lynching well named" or "Wn is a fine wagon" which at this point is basically entirely unjustified

at the very least, if villagers do it it provides easy cover for wolves to push a mislynch. I'm going to assume in this game that it's pretty suspicious to say things like "WN is a fine wagon" based solely on meta because it's such a viable wolf strategy right now

And I'm going to request that if you are a villager you need to consider that angle and be willing to actually try to read me, not just assume I'm always an OK lynch. A mislynch is a mislynch, we only get so many. For better or worse the game is to actually make reads, so do me a favor and at least try to read me :P

BUT IT WOULD BE SO EASY TO LYNCH YOU AND FEEL OKAY ABOUT MY DECISION BECAUSE YOU ARE A GOOD WOLF PLUS THERE IS THE FINGER OF SUSPICION THING.

Point taken, though. I will attempt to find a better vote if night doesn't fall in the next 20 minutes. You might try sounding a little less reasonable though. I've spent much too much time listening to you sound reasonable as a wolf.

yes

well named, I'm not trying to push you, and I have no reason to think you're >rand to be wolf. I'd like to develop my read of you further before I can lean one way or the other.

That being said, in a vacuum, I think there are much worse lynches than you, just because of your capacity to soulcrush village teams by yourself. I can't say that about anyone else in this game.

The nature of this game means that night could fall in twenty minutes -- or an hour and twenty minutes -- with most of the roster barely having contributed. That means we need to make some snap, heuristic-based judgments about +EV wagons. It's my opinion that, in a vacuum, you would be a +EV wagon.

Yes, the game is to actually make reads. But right now, there's pretty thin gruel on the ground.* And when night falls, whoever has the most votes is going to be lynched.

It's not my intent to tunnel you. I'm not even voting you.

*MIXED METAPHORS YESSSSS

how do you expect you will adjust your game as a result?

Hey guys, I'm around .

Anarchist voting me to "see my reaction" is ridiculous. He doesn't know how I wolf because I never did. No matter how I react he is gonna be readless. I call BS.

Voracious very villagery and WN too. I have no meta with Voracious but played quite a lot with WN. I'm not gonna try to tone read him but talking about his previous mislynches and "try reading me first" appeals already sounds very villagery to me.

Slighted AFK remembers me of the zemlaya game where he was randed wolf, so wolf lean for him.

VMF never posts once and then disappears. I don't know what to think of that, but in the rebellion mish-mash he spent 4 days avoiding posting and was a wolf.

So those are my reads so far. Hi!

Oh also saying you're voting me for reaction eliminates me from having a natural reaction, so this might mess up with your read. If I know that you're just voting me to see what I'll do and not because you think I'm wolfy, I will react in an entirely different way regardless of my role, right?

i will probably vote more

Lately, VMF always posts once and then disappears. He did it in Burn Notice as well and he was villa there. It's frustrating because I feel like he's only making a half-hearted effort in recent games, but it's probably mostly role-neutral.

see, i already think you're a villager! unvote

gadarene for rustling my jimmies

Who Posted?
Total Posts: 67
User Name Posts
Gadarene 19
VoraciousReader 11
Anarchist 10
well named 8
derm 5
DonkDonkDonkDonk 4
HiFi 4
Slighted 3
hardcoreUFO 2
VarianceMinefield 1

how's that working out for you so far?

thoughts on hardcore's reaction to your vote?

no lynch might be a valid option this early

or is that craycray

there ya go

i've only ever been mislynched once in my POG career

i'm confidently expecting this game to be number two

Looks like we are missing

Monkey Banana
Kruze
TBob
vixticator

If people (who have the capability, and thus are not me) can keep running vote counts, I have a feeling that's going to be pretty crucial

That would definitely be pro-wolf. Unless we get super unlucky and hit the seer, village is always better off to take our kill than not take it. It would be like being white and ceding our first move to black.

so are wolves more or less likely to be wagoning early in this format? do you stand out more as the second and third votes on the wagon with night coming randomly?

im trying to think what the optimal strategy could be, and how i should look at wagons, as generally thats one of my top tools in finding wolves..