donny, read NGL eod on ufo/myro and let me know what you think

I recall NGL saying something about being concerned about being grouped with UFO which I thought was odd @ the time because Robik had read it as if UFO wolf then NGL probably villa.

I think the D1 resistance to UFO would be as interesting as the D2 resistance.

But I was a big part of the D2/UFO wrongness because I'm a dumbazz, so I'm biased.

Was so proud of my dumbazz theory haha.

Have to sleep, will be up again in a few hrs, then asleep past EOD probably.

I dunno, when a wolf tries really hard to lynch someone I tend to say the wolf spewed them villa.

In this case the wolf is trying really hard to not lynch someone, so I'm inclined to say he may have spewed NGL wolf here.

This can breakdown for distancing purposes, but I've found that to be less common. For instance, last game NGL went pretty hard after ChrisV and Monte, which made it difficult for me to try to get chrisV lynched, and I imagine the same thing for monte had he not been nk'd.

None of this is 100%, but it's a theory.

some things i want to note for post game, but dont worry about responding to now.

* did I miss something obvious about myro being seer, I never got that vibe from him. I would have expected more fire from him during his defense.
* Why did myro's entire case against ufo revolve around the 'antispew' argument and subtle phrasing. I get that sometimes those sort of tings are the most reveaing, but if you have a 100% wolfcwhy not also use the evidence from day 1 against ufo.
*why did irtm have to choose ufo as his fake peek? since he was most clear and didnt want to move to tthe ufo wagon i feel llike that hurt us.

So he asks irtm for lynch ideas but ends up voting UFO. This looks ok, but we're still ~1hr from EoD.

Starts a progression on myro

Switched vote to seer

When he says the bolded it makes me think that his UFO vote was never really sincere or was it ever going to stay there.

Explains why he's switching off of UFO, which he says is bc his cleared people were on myro and his wolfy people were on UFO.

I'm inclined to think the UFO vote was never gonna stick and he was looking for a reason to get on myro.

I don't know, I think the case on NGL has some stuff but it's def not a slam dunk.

My initial reaction was definitely that it seemed W/W if UFO wolf, but Robik had the opposite reaction, which gave me pause @ the time.

i think I'm never going to be able to get away from the associative reads with UFO. whether he spewed me as a villager or wolf isn't clear. Trying to defend him day 1 was the only time i felt trepidation while posting. I didn't want to link myself closely with an unknown, but it was how i was reading the game.

quiet town needs to step up. we've had no strong town voices and people like me that have tried to look for things have done a bad job. i want to take a step back today, but also need to be available if anyone wants to engage with me for reads.

I'm town but if I'm always in the top 2 lynches after UFO I think I should be lynched tomorrow. Wolves are never killing me I'll always be an easy mislynch and I think we only get one. I'd rather move down the lynch order so help me do that If I can't then get me out of the way.

myro liked sun's outlook on the game, if he's town hes one of the voices I think needs to step up.

please look at my game as a whole and don't focus entirely on the UFO interactions.

You're never getting lynched today, we're always lynching UFO.

The nk should provide some info one way or another, which should inform our decision tomorrow.

The case on you is thin, but there are some wolfy things.

No one except for myro moved. Its kind of a bold vote if you think I'm doing it just for distancing.

I think IRTM's take was right if you think I'm a wolf I would have need to be coached through the end of yesterday. You played wolf with me do you think that's how I'd act?

If you think I was being coached then try and separate my actions across both days into what feels scripted and what doesnt.

You didn't miss anything but that was the point.

Scenario 1: Seer leaves obvious peeks which are all correct and gets NKd
Scenario 2: Seer doesn't leave obvious peeks and instead just tries to steer the village to their way of thinking using other methods. Example: If I knew you were a wolf because I peeked you I would not out this as a peek. Instead I would look for posts in which you've been wolfy and point towards them. I'm less likely to die at night and in the event that I do then people will assume that my strongest reads are my peeks. They are less clear and sometimes misleading but the life expectancy of the seer increases dramatically. Last game housenuts did this to great effect and survived to the end of the game as the seer.

yeah I get that he ddint want to out and get more peeks. I think there were other elements that myro could have incorporated into his case that would have strengthened his argument. Or he could have felt absurdly strongly about the lynch with no reason in which case it kind of suggests a seer read.

Where he landed it just felt like pressuring for info. Since he was the other main wagon I would have moved more toward scenario 1 maybe giving away that I'm the seer more strongly but increased the likelihood we lynch a wolf yesterday. Go for the single instead of the home run.

but I think I'm viewing this game too much like a sudoku

There's actually a lot about this post I want to take issue with. why did you group the first three posts? I was trying to interact with IRTM at midday, but I don;t see what that has to do with my vote three hours later. The vote was 30 mins before eod.

I was providing the case against myro because he wanted something to argue against. or at least respond do. If you think I'm a wolf and this is a scripted play do you think I get the nod to try and bury him with logic?

Myro never really wanted to respond to me. I'm sure my thought process was terribly uncouth, but rubes like me still get a vote.

Here's more about the spew either direction. Robik and myro's take that it can't be w/w were from the immediate interaction. It's not until later that I express concern about seeming like a wolf pair.

Read my last game. I don't have a problem bussing an opponent or generally butting heads with them. Why do I include this self doubt if I'm a wolf.

So at first I thought it was odd you asked for irtm's choices and then voted elsewhere. But after thinking about it, if you're a villa and you're a little lost then you can always lean on your villa leans. IRTM is SHC at this point so it makes sense to give his lynches more thought.

You ultimately ended up on myro, which is where irtm ended up as well. So I kind of think that this might look ok for you.

here is my other game on the site. Donatello and I were wolves: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59...hread-1671327/

The setting you up thing is my major reservation with thinking UFO spewed you wolf. Pair that with what looks like some faith in the voting of the SHC irtm and I'm not sure the wolf case is that great anymore.

This is good.

The goal isn't to paint you as a wolf, it is to see if the wolf case holds water, which I think you've reacted to as well as anybody, and I think you've offered seemingly reasonable responses. Though I think i need to think about this more.