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4/30 Criminal Minds Vanilla WW Slow Game Thread 4/30 Criminal Minds Vanilla WW Slow Game Thread

05-10-2013 , 12:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by legend42
But we win anyway!
I was kind of rooting for WN for a while there

until he started howling and VR and vix made me want the village to win again
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05-10-2013 , 12:17 AM
I don't really mind never getting legend. It's very rare for people to fps a wolf peek like that as the seer at that time in the game. To answer your question legend it has nothing to do with reading you, my read on your wolf game isn't really related to how I would seer hunt, and it's not like I think that you're dumb at all. It's just pretty uncommon and I just ruled you out and never reconsidered at all. It didn't help that on the very pivotal n3 I was super busy all day and got like 30 minutes when I was exhausted to decide what to do, but it seemed like it had to be hoya or remedys at that point and it had seemed like hoya really peeked charry and was just fps'ing.

As far as the mets kill, it was just a combination of thinking he might be seer occasionally, other people not seeming like good candidates, him being clear enough that I didn't expect him to get lynched, him leaving no SHC players, and him being potentially peeked by several other candidates. I thought it was fine

JD was actually not an FPS kill, well or only partially FPS. I thought it was possible that his reaction to mets' pressure was seery if he peeked mets. The fact that when it was wrong it also didn't spew anything was nice

all in all I feel like I had reasonable chances of winning this game but the peeks legend had were too good, I need to be able to lynch at least one of uaw or vix, if not both.

Sorry for bussing so much but my opinion was that it was correct to do so, even if only because I'm not a very good wolf without bussing.
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05-10-2013 , 12:18 AM
also my new windows look bitchin'
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05-10-2013 , 12:31 AM
It's all good, wn. I made a concerted effort to not play seer overly "careful" given the field, and it paid off. The Sun thing wasn't a conscious FPS, it was just a feel play that paid off. Just glad we got you, because I really did almost make you the "clear" one based on the NKs.
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05-10-2013 , 12:47 AM
that should read "carefully" in respect for VR's adverb nittery
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05-10-2013 , 01:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by remedys
Legend mvp
Hoya and Sun biggest lols
You and bhuber and VR were the MVPs. You three all cleared yourselves OVER someone who was SHC, voted both wolves, and had a mostly villagery tone throughout the game. That's pretty extraordinary.

I was also really impressed with the number of players who read back in this game. That's usually my biggest complaint, but here multiple players did it and I think it contributed to the village win.
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05-10-2013 , 02:05 AM
I think well named was village MVP personally
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05-10-2013 , 02:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vixticator
I think well named was village MVP personally
yeah, he did get all 3 wolves lynched
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05-10-2013 , 07:59 AM
I played exactly how I would have ass seer

Gg all
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05-10-2013 , 08:43 AM
yeah bhuber MVP fa sho
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05-10-2013 , 09:24 AM
lol me

i love being AFK for an entire game day - always pans out so well
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05-10-2013 , 10:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by legend42
I don't think I get this, Hoya. It seems either hypocritical or nonsensical. Explain please.
Every time I come across someone nonparticipatory and superfluous I run this little check in my brain that goes like this:

1. Are they being a good villager? Absolutely not.

2. If they are a wolf, is there some reason to believe this would look villager-y to someone? If yes -> probably wolf.1 If no -> go to #3.

3. If they are a wolf, does this appear to be an effort to win the game?

If the answer to 3 is no, I don't really know wtf to do.

I generally believe that wolves are incentivized to not be the repeatedly AFK ~ UTR guy who makes weird posts. Yet, wolves keep flipping wolf after playing exactly like that!

Of course villagers flip villager after playing like that as well, so policy lynching is gonna be relatively bad, but that "style" of wolfing does not compute in my conception of "playing WW" and leads me to repeatedly soft-clear for a day or two people who haven't earned it. In this game, for example, Charry was weird - 17th-level wolf post - and then bad - AFK, tarping for no reason, etc. - and that should mean he shouldn't be a wolf almost ever just because if you want to win how hard is it to not lie about being AFK or just actually post sometimes or not make posts where you list wolves and then vote someone else? The answer is it's not that hard, which is why I don't get it. I made the same style read on huber on, I think, like page 1 day 1 and it was right, and I don't really know the $tats on how often this is wrong versus right.

In related news I just got WN totally wrong but think he played really well, but of course I think that, he tricked me.

1 The argument that this post is a reason to think people will clear a wolf for being bad and AFK holds no water. So far as I know, I'm the only person actively trying to work this form of read into my game, and it's not even really working to begin with. Also most wolves don't even think that way anyway.
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05-10-2013 , 10:59 AM
the reason why UTR/not trying is a wolf tell is just that the player pool turns over enough that some people have very little experience at wolfing and just don't really know how to make up reads or post a lot. And I think there's just a psychological thing. There's nothing to figure out as a wolf, there's no drive to solve anything, you're just almost waiting out the clock on the lynches.
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05-10-2013 , 11:59 AM
I mean, maybe. Pretty sure the right answer is to just track the SlankWolves™ in a personal database so I can know when I should just vote someone for that style of wolfing versus when it doesn't mean they're more likely to be a wolf.

The problem is it reduces the villaging available in making the read. The read isn't game-dependent as much as slank-dependent, and that's not really WW so much as observation of nonparticipation. That's not hard, it's just taking some unknown X% likelihood that nonparticipation = wolf, and that's never gonna be especially high unless the person is one of these fabled incapable of wolfing people. I don't even know what the odds would be, but that same lynch often turns into a series of free mislynches for a participatory wolf team.

Am I making any sense?
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05-10-2013 , 12:01 PM
meta is obviously also good

although the real problem with the Slankerbase method is people get better, or they just were really busy and shouldn't have signed up for that one game, or whatever
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05-10-2013 , 12:10 PM
This is what I'm saying though, I don't know how to solve for that kind of play. The desire to correctly clear these dudes is exactly the same as the desire to reduce mislynches, but it just crushes my will to keep trying to make that form of read when a wolf who shouldn't be a wolf because of the above still flips wolf. It also makes some of WW feel kind of pointless and random and I obviously don't want to believe that's real even though clearly it kind of is.
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05-10-2013 , 12:11 PM
solution: use the chips ahoy method and lynch the people who don't seem to be trying to solve the game, or at least use that as the "default" read when you don't have some other basis for a read

also werewolf obviously has a tremendous amount of variance, is close to random, and is totally pointless
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05-10-2013 , 12:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
solution: use the chips ahoy method and lynch the people who don't seem to be trying to solve the game, or at least use that as the "default" read when you don't have some other basis for a read

also werewolf obviously has a tremendous amount of variance, is close to random, and is totally pointless
First point: that's what I used to do; that's where you lynch UTR / poor villagers and lose every time the wolves get a decent rand but win every time the wolves suck

Second point: I think I'm on record saying that if you're even 5% above rand on your reads, you're killing it given the difficulty of the weird task
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05-10-2013 , 12:24 PM
some day I'm going to figure out how to wolf properly without spending 8 hours a day
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05-10-2013 , 12:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CPHoya
It also makes some of WW feel kind of pointless and random and I obviously don't want to believe that's real even though clearly it kind of is.
This is my frequent frustration. It's fine for it to be a puzzle with some missing pieces or some that have to be forced into place. But when you find a piece that fits perfectly, and it's still wrong...makes you wonder if it's worth trying to solve it at all.

As far as charry, his "trap" was clearly a conscious play to try to clear himself through "charry-ness". So at least it's readable.

As far as wn, he fooled all of us for awhile. If you were around on the last day I think you would have uncleared him and come to the same conclusion we did. Credit again to VR, remedys, and bhuber.
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05-10-2013 , 12:27 PM
Oh and I like the idea of a SlankWolves database, so long as I'm not in it.

But wn makes a good point about changing game and irl environments. For instance we would have certainly lynched VR by day 3 with that method.
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05-10-2013 , 12:32 PM
i don't think I was wolfy the last day, it's simply POE plus everyone else being villagery, and me not being able to justify the time commitment that would have been required to out-villager them and to satisfy the demands of people's meta reads on me
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05-10-2013 , 12:39 PM
Yeah you were fine, wn. I thought the "maybe legend isn't the seer" stuff was a little sketchy (from you...from others it could have been villagery) but it was almost entirely POE. Which is why the other three deserve the plaudits. If they hadn't all stepped up, we would never have considered you.
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05-10-2013 , 12:54 PM
WN was by far wolfiest last day. which is why I believe in a day by day approach apppose to process of elimination
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05-10-2013 , 12:57 PM
I think I seemed wolfy because my only options involve pushing people who probably shouldn't be lynched :P
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